Ronald Jones has a clear path to playing
time in Tampa Bay making him worthy of RB2 consideration.
2.03 – RB Nick Chubb, Browns
The Browns get a guy named Chubb one round later than everyone
expected. Chubb was the de facto thunder to Sony Michel's lightning
throughout their time together at Georgia, but the former is hardly
a straight-ahead plodder, just like Michel wasn't a change-of-pace
scatback. The Bulldogs' second all-time leading rusher, who checks
in at a solid 5-11 and 227 pounds, also displayed pretty good
athleticism at the NFL Combine (29 reps on the bench, 4.52 speed,
38.5-inch vertical, 128-inch broad). The good thing with Chubb
is that his athleticism shows up on the field and belongs to a
player whose feet are typically in synch with his eyes. While
he can catch the ball when necessary, 31 receptions over his four-year
career - including 13 total over his final three seasons - is
a pretty clear indication his new team probably should not expect
a great deal from him as a receiver. The landing spot is not a
particularly good one either for his fantasy prospects, at least
not immediately. Carlos Hyde figures to be the early-down back
to begin the season, while Duke Johnson will handle the change-of-pace
duties and passing-down responsibilities. For redraft purposes,
I could wrap my mind around a pick in the 8-10 round range. In
rookie drafts, he's worth considering in the middle part of the
first round.
2.06 - RB Ronald Jones, Buccaneers
Fantasy folks finally catch a break in terms of immediate impact.
There are worries about his ability to carry a full workload based
on his 5-11, 205-pound frame, but he missed only one game in his
three-year college career with an ankle injury and did not appear
to wear down over the course of his 261-carry junior campaign.
Like Kenyan Drake (my comp for Jones) and another back he is often
compared to in Jamaal Charles, Jones is a very sudden runner who
figures to be more than decent in the passing game despite being
underutilized as a receiver during his college years. He may never
be the best or most powerful runner in between the tackles, but
he made serious strides in that area in 2017 and can push the
pile a bit. Better yet, he recorded only two fumbles over 591
career carries. Jones is very twitchy and will make tacklers miss
in the hole. At the moment, Jones is a clear 1.02 or 1.03 pick
in rookie drafts. Owners in redraft formats can feel good about
him as a high-upside RB2 in the fourth-round area (obviously depending
on how the rest of the draft plays out).
2.08 – WR Courtland Sutton, Broncos
Sutton has a shot to be the best receiver in this draft. At 6-3
and 218 pounds, he profiles similarly to Alshon Jeffery and could
enjoy a similar career. So why was he available? His hand placement
is consistently poor. He's not a good enough route-runner or quick
enough at this point to create separation at the pro level - he
didn't do a great job of it in college - so I have sincere doubts
he is going to be the alpha-dog WR1 teams want - certainly not
immediately - from their first-round picks at receiver. With that
said, Denver appears to be doing what it can to open up the downhill
passing game now while preparing for life after Demaryius Thomas
and Emmanuel Sanders down the road. Sutton is worth taking in
the late round of redraft leagues based simply on his ability
to potentially be a red zone threat. Dynasty owners will need
to wait a bit for their payoff, so Sutton may last until the end
of the first round.
2.10 – TE Mike Gesicki, Dolphins
Once upon a time, Miami HC Adam Gase oversaw a Denver offense
that turned Julius Thomas into a fantasy beast. It appears Gase
is ready to revisit that part of his playbook. Gesicki is one
freaky dude. His NFL Combine numbers back up that athleticism:
4.54 speed at 6-6 and 247 pounds, 22 reps on the bench, 41.5-inch
vertical, 129-inch broad and 6.76 on the 3-cone (anything under
7.0 at his size is phenomenal). His 34 1/8-inch arms would make
a lot of offensive line coaches drool. His hands (10 1/4 inches)
are about as sure as they come. Like Thomas, he is an oversized
slot receiver. However, Gesicki wasn't nearly the athlete. So
the bottom line is this: if he can add the necessary strength
to become even an average blocker without losing his current athleticism,
we are probably talking about the next unstoppable force at the
tight end position. Gesicki's floor should be as a field-stretching
move tight end who dominates in the red zone. His ceiling could
be Tony Gonzalez if he lands in the right system, and he found
a good home here. Rookie tight ends don't produce very often (although
he could be the same exception Evan Engram was last year), so
redraft owners need to view him as a high-upside TE2. Dynasty
owners should consider him as early as the late part of the first
round.
2.11 – RB Kerryon Johnson, Lions
Johnson is perhaps the most patient college back I can recall
watching, bringing some loose comparisons to Le'Veon Bell. His
55 career receptions in three seasons don't really do him justice,
as he is advanced for a college back in the passing game and as
a blocker. Johnson runs with determination in between the tackles
and finds a fair amount of success doing so, but his upright running
style and high-cut build keeps him from being better in this area.
Johnson is not a cut-on-a-dime or make-you-miss kind of guy, but
he does flash fancy footwork often enough to believe he will continue
to improve in terms of his elusiveness. He also features one of
the best stiff-arms in this class. Considering the absence of
one or more multiple elite traits, it's hard to imagine he'll
be a top-tier back at any point of his career, but the fact he
is above-average in a number of important areas should be enough
for him to give him a good shot at being a three-down back relatively
early in his career. He should get that shot with the Lions, who
are making a clear statement they are not tied to Ameer Abdullah
or Theo Riddick and want something approaching a lead back. Johnson
figures to be worth a pick as early as 1.04 in rookie drafts and
should make for a solid flex option at the very least in redraft.
2.14 – WR Dante Pettis, 49ers
The 49ers probably did not draft the top receiver on the board,
but they likely have a long-term answer in the slot. This pick
has more to do with this ability on special teams, however, as
Pettis is the NCAA record-holder with nine career punt return
touchdowns. Pettis overcomes less-than-ideal size (6-0, 186) by
being one of the sharper route-runners in this class and utilizing
impressive short-area quickness. Pettis drew a comp to Jamison Crowder from me for the aforementioned reasons and it wouldn’t
surprise me if he ends up carving out a similar career. He'll
have to wait his turn behind Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin,
however, so he will likely go ignored in redraft leagues. He's
probably a late second-round pick at best in rookie drafts.
2.15 – WR Christian Kirk, Cardinals
Kirk profiles as a long-term slot receiver because he thrives
in space, which means he is going to get a very good education
from one of the best in the league in Larry Fitzgerald. While
his hand placement needs to get better and he needs to sell his
routes better, the fact he was as productive as he was at Texas
A&M over his three seasons in College Station despite poor
quarterback play speaks to his ability as a playmaker. Kirk is
very quick, has strong hands as well as a good feel against zone
coverage, is a plus route-runner and shows some Golden Tate tendencies
in his game. He is also a premiere return man. Given the fact
Brice Butler appears to be his stiffest competition opposite Fitzgerald
for a starting job, Kirk should be on the WR4 radar in redraft.
As such, he is well worth a look late in the first round of rookie
drafts.
2.17 – TE Dallas Goedert, Eagles
Philadelphia likely stuck it to Dallas a bit with this pick,
although it does serve a need as the Eagles parted ways with Brent Celek and lost Trey Burton in free agency. He will be expected
to fill the latter's role as Zach Ertz's backup as a rookie and,
like Burton, he'll find a way to make an impact as Philadelphia
tries to play the mismatch game with two tight ends on the field.
Goedert doesn't offer much as a blocker, but he can stretch the
seam and hit a vertical plane in the red zone that linebackers
and safeties simply can't reach. His redraft use will be limited
to if/when Ertz gets hurt, and his dynasty value figures to be
limited as well since Ertz isn't losing his job anytime soon.
2.19 – WR Anthony Miller, Bears
It's obvious this is a new era for Chicago, which has made huge
strides offensively this offseason under new HC Matt Nagy by grabbing
Allen Robinson, Trey Burton and now Miller. Miller is 5-11, 201-pound
receiver who can bench 225 pounds 22 times with 10 5/8-inch hands.
While he frustratingly commits some focus drops on relatively
easy throws, has some ball security issues and exhibits a bit
much upper-body motion when trying to sell a route, he wins 50-50
balls more often than a player his size probably should. His huge
hands allow him to haul in some passes most receivers would have
no prayer of catching and, while his speed gets knocked by critics,
his ability to separate and get behind defenders consistently
is impressive. Last but not least, he is as good of a blocker
as any wideout in this class. There is a lot of former Panther
and Raven Steve Smith in his game. Considering Kevin White cannot
stay healthy and Taylor Gabriel is the next best receiver on the
roster, Miller could muster WR4 value in redraft leagues if he
nails down a starting job. He should be in the early-second round
mix at worst in rookie drafts.
2.27 – RB Derrius Guice, Redskins
Guice was considered one of three backs to be worthy of a first-round
pick, so the fact Washington landed him with the 27th pick in
the second round makes for solid value and also fills a need.
There are reports of him not interviewing well with teams, but
chances are he will end up being better than the seventh-best
player at his position. His 2016 game tape was definitely first-round
worthy, as he took over for an injured Leonard Fournette and ended
up leading the SEC in rushing. Guice models his game after Marshawn Lynch, so it goes without saying he is perhaps the most physical
runner in this class. Assuming he is the 2016 version of himself
as a pro - as opposed to the injured shell of himself he was in
2017 - Guice should bypass Samaje Perine as the Redskins' lead
runner and serve as the early-down complement to Chris Thompson.
Consider him a high-upside flex option in redraft for now - Perine
is hardly a slouch - with RB2 upside if he can wrap up the starting
job. Guice should be a top-five-selection in rookie drafts.
2.28 – WR James Washington,
Steelers
The Steelers continue their near-annual tradition of taking a
Day 2 receiver. Washington essentially replaces Martavis Bryant,
who was traded to Oakland for a third-round pick on the first
night of the draft. The Oklahoma State product was one of college
football's premier deep threats last season and averaged 19.8
YPC on 226 career receptions. Washington is a master of winning
contested catches downfield. His ball-tracking skills are exceptional,
and he complements that ability by positioning himself as well
as any college receiver to win in those situations downfield.
As such, he figures to absorb the Bryant role in this offense.
As was the case with Bryant, that role is going to make him fantasy-relevant,
although the Steelers aren't going to have enough balls to make
a consistent option. Think WR5 for redraft purposes, and consider
him a second-round value in rookie drafts.
2.28 – WR D.J. Chark, Jaguars
Chark was a relative unknown nationally before showing well in
the Senior Bowl (5-160-1) and blowing up the NFL Combine (4.34
speed, 40-inch vertical, 129-inch broad). At 6-3 and 200 pounds
and a certifiable burner, one might think he would be a contested-ball
savant as well, but LSU's offense (and quarterback situation)
didn't exactly give him the opportunity to show that part of his
game off. The Jags are loaded with second-receiver types at the
moment, and that would seem to be Chark's ceiling consider he
is very much a raw prospect. Further working against him is Jacksonville's
run-heavy offense and the presence of Marqise Lee, Donte Moncrief
and Dede Westbrook - not to mention Keelan Cole. Chark is not
worth a redraft pick and should be considered a late-second round
value in rookie drafts.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.