In short, the "plan" going into a game changes anywhere from a third to roughly a half of most football games change as the game moves along. When a team falls more than one score behind, they will inevitably throw the ball more than they expected. When a team consistently plays with a lead, they will run the ball more often. This should not come as mind-blowing information. Nevertheless, there is plenty to be learned from studying play-caller tendencies and, more specifically, how much they rely on certain players to carry the offense. While the situation a team finds itself in during the course of the game will generally affect volume, coaches don't typically go away from their best players whether they are down by 10 or ahead by 14. And even though play-callers don't deliver the ball to the intended target on every play, they do draw up the plays designed to get the ball to their playmakers. That alone make studying their tendencies - especially over multiple seasons when possible - a good idea.

This two-part series is my latest attempt to provide each of you - as well as myself - a better grasp of the way players are able to reach the statistical heights they do (or don't), focusing primarily on the recent history of the men who will call the shots. Given the injury rate of players and turnover rate of coaches, be advised this will be far from a perfect exercise. With that said, I think you will find some of the information below to be fascinating and perhaps even helpful. Last week, I covered the AFC. This week, we take a look at the NFC:

Most of the setup below should be fairly self-explanatory, but I'll break it down anyway. The RB1/WR1/TE1 designations are based on carry share (the percentage of a team's carries by a player) and target share (the percentage of a team's targets by a player). I limited the play-callers' histories to three seasons in order to conserve space and keep the information somewhat relevant. The bolded numbers right below the headings of "carry share" and "target share" are the team totals in those respective columns to give you some sense of the actual workload. Last but not least, the coaches listed below the team name are the men responsible for calling plays this year.

ARI | ATL | CAR | CHI | DAL | DET | GB | LAR | MIN | NO | NYG | PHI | SF | SEA | TB | WAS

Arizona
HC Kliff Kingsbury

Instead of the methodical, run-it-up-the-gut football that Mike McCoy drove fantasy owners crazy with for half of a season in 2018, the Cardinals can expect tempo and a lot of open field under Kingsbury. A few numbers to consider: Arizona averaged 56.4 offensive snaps last season (only Miami was worse), down from 66.2 in Bruce Arians' final season. Kingsbury's offenses at Texas Tech led FBS in snaps per game during his six years in Lubbock. (Last year was 82.6, up from 79.3 in 2017.) No one is expecting Arizona to fire off almost 1,300 offensive plays (just over 80 per game). After all, New England is usually near the top of the league with an average somewhere in the high 60s. But there's no question Kingsbury's squad will move the ball, do so with much more urgency and sustain drives much better than last year's Cardinals.

Only one player during Kingsbury's reign with the Red Raiders exceeded 132 carries. Unsurprisingly, that players was also the only Texas Tech running back over that time to make the pros: DeAndre Washington. Contrary to popular belief, Kingsbury's Red Raider offenses actually did run the ball a fair amount (410 or more attempts in four of six seasons). Kingsbury is also no fool, he has a good idea what David Johnson brings to the table. Given the kind of pace Arizona is expected to play with, Johnson might cede a few more carries to Chase Edmonds than fantasy owners want (and, in turn, he may have a lower carry share than expected). But make no mistake about it: if the Cardinals can get to 400 rushing attempts this season, Johnson's floor should be 250 (62.5 percent). The slot was usually the featured receiver in the passing game for Kingsbury, although that player took on different body types over the years. Jace Amaro tallied 106 catches as a 6-5, 260-pound "F" tight end. Then we had two years of 5-7, 168-pound Jakeem Grant. Then, 6-1, 186-pound Jonathan Giles and 5-11, 180-pound Keke Coutee. Last but not least, 6-5, 185-pound Antoine Wesley. None of those players lined up exclusively in the slot, but most of them spent the bulk of their time there. And while there was generally a clear No. 1 in his offenses, a lot of his offenses got contributions from several players. In five of his six years in charge, Kingsbury had at least seven players finish with at least 20 catches.

Atlanta
OC Dirk Koetter

It is difficult to put much stock into Koetter's overall percentages with Tampa Bay last season because there were periods in which former OC Todd Monken was calling the shots and times he was. Unfortunately, outside of Doug Martin's resurgent 2015 season, Koetter's offenses have ranked no better than 24th in rushing yards since he signed on to be the Falcons' offensive coordinator the first time around in 2012. His departure to take the head-coaching job with the Bucs in 2015 led to the arrival of Kyle Shanahan, who obviously oversaw Freeman's breakout campaign in 2015. For what it's worth, Koetter's offenses have tended to lean on one back in the rare instance they've been productive (or at least significantly more productive than their teammates). Barber, Martin and Jackson are all examples of that. It would seem with only Ito Smith in reserve, Freeman will have his opportunity to handle at least 50 percent of the carries for the first time since 2016.

Koetter has been blessed with having a freak at wideout since joining Atlanta in 2012 and hasn't been shy about making sure he gets fed well. Evans' 22.3 percent target share last year is the lowest for one of his lead receivers dating back to 2014. Given how dominant Jones still is, it's hard to imagine his share dipping much from 28.1 last year. White's 20 percent share in 2014 and Humphries' 17 percent share last season is proof a capable second receiver like Calvin Ridley can push for 20 percent in Koetter's offense. He may not quite there this fall, but he should be close. Some of his targets figure to come at the expense of Mohamed Sanu, who saw 15.6 percent of the looks from Matt Ryan in 2018. That seems reasonable for a capable No. 3 receiver in this offense, especially considering Koetter hasn't utilized his running backs much in the passing game since Charles Sims in 2015. As far as Austin Hooper is concerned, it's hard to tell how much the tight ends were a priority for Koetter in Tampa Bay. Jameis Winston relied on that position long before he became a pro. Whether it was a Winston thing or not, the usage of Bucs' tight ends under Koetter is encouraging. Last year was the first time in three seasons tight ends didn't account for at least 20 percent of the target share (17.8); given the injury to Howard and all the talent Tampa Bay has at receiver, it's not hard to understand why.

Carolina
OC Norv Turner

It becomes quite clear right away last year's target share isn't going to help us much, as Moore didn't play more than 33 snaps in a game until Week 8 and Samuel didn't see more than 26 snaps until Week 12. There was little question they were the team's best receivers by the end of the season. If Greg Olsen can manage to stay healthy this season (admittedly, a big if), then he's probably not going to lose the target battle to Thomas either. With Funchess' 79 targets now in Indianapolis, Moore (82 targets in 2018) and Samuel (65) could both easily move over 100 targets, and I don't think that's an overly ambitious goal. McCaffrey likely won't exceed last year's 124 targets for obvious reasons, although I don't think it's too much to ask for him and Moore to see 20 percent of the looks in this offense. Samuel shouldn't be too far behind at around 15 or 16 percent. Turner's offenses have typically kept tight ends busy, but I'm not sure owners should expect much more than the 16.9 percent share they saw last season given the weapons the Panthers have everywhere else.

Nagy is from the Andy Reid coaching tree, and that background showed up in the balance exhibited by the passing game last season. Robinson battled hip and groin issues for most of the second half of the season after spending the first half of it getting used to his surgically repaired knee. It's positive for potential upside he managed almost 19 percent of the targets despite missing three games. He's a good bet for a low-20 percent share in 2019. Miller was slowed by a shoulder injury for the better part of the season, so his 10.7 percent share is certainly not indicative of what could have been. Normal skill development and slightly better injury luck - plus the fact he will be the team's primary slot receiver again - should allow him to push for a 16-17 percent share as a sophomore. Gabriel had a nice surge against two very exploitable defenses early in the season, but his 18.5 percent target share last season was more a product of Robinson and Miller's injuries than a breakout. He is primarily a deep threat and should be used that way. Although the addition of Cordarrelle Patterson will interest some folks, he'll likely play in a hybrid role; he's unlikely to see more than 7-8 percent of the carry or target share. After a strong start to the season, it was nearly impossible to get a handle on Burton. Assuming Miller is healthy this season, I would expect Burton's looks to drop into the 12-13 percent area.

Dallas
OC Kellen Moore

Using another man's play-calling tendencies to open for a first-time offensive coordinator can be a recipe for disaster, so I'm only going to post Scott Linehan's last three seasons as a reference point for what Dallas has done in the Prescott-Elliott era. The only reason Elliott hasn't finished well above a 60 percent carry share in each of his first three seasons is because of his six-game suspension in 2017. Little else really needs to be said. The addition of Tony Pollard may give Dallas what it hoped Tavon Austin was going to provide last year, but Zeke is about as much of a lock to handle another heavy workload as there is in fantasy football - barring injury or some poor decision-making off the field (again). The most interesting thing in terms of the running game figures to be whether or not Moore (a former quarterback himself) will expose Prescott to the same kind of carry share again that typically is reserved for a change-of-pace back.

If we merely take Cooper's 14.7 percent target share from his nine games with Dallas and extrapolate it over a full season, he would have amassed 26.1 percent of the looks in the passing game. The Cowboys have upgraded their personnel from last season, however, so maybe something in the 22-23 percent neighborhood is more likely for Cooper in 2019. Gallup became much more of a factor as the season came to a close, finishing with at least six targets in six of his final seven contests. It's going to be hard to get him too many more looks with trusty veterans like Randall Cobb and Witten around, but he'll likely benefit the most if Cobb struggles to stay healthy yet again. There's almost no chance the former Packer reaches Beasley's 16.8 percent target share, in part due to his lack of durability and in part because he'll be sharing short-range targets with Witten. The 37-year-old tight end also is a poor candidate to reach his former heights of 17.9 and 19.8 percent target share; 12-14 percent seems like it should be his ceiling now. Last but certainly not least, will Dallas target Zeke 18.4 percent of the time again? If he drops down into the 10-12 percent area, he'll need to find the end zone with more regularity in order to be a solid overall No. 1 pick in fantasy drafts.

Detroit
OC Darrell Bevell

We can pretty much dismiss 2017 Seahawks as an example for the running game, as Seattle suffered a ridiculous amount of injuries to the backfield. Nevertheless, the last time Bevell gave one running back more than 30 percent of the carries was Marshawn Lynch (53.3) in 2014. That's probably going to have to change in Detroit since Matthew Stafford isn't going to augment the running game like Wilson did. Still, it's probably going to take Kerryon Johnson making the rest of the depth chart look ridiculous for him to get much more than 40 percent of the rushing attempts. C.J. Anderson was added in part to make sure Johnson doesn't get overworked, and we can bet Theo Riddick will find a way to get a 10-15 percent of the carries if he makes the team.

In the rare instance or two the Seahawks employed a back capable of being a weapon in the passing game under Bevell, he didn’t see much work as a receiver. There is talk earlier in the offseason about Johnson potentially catching 60 passes, but it appears there will have to be a serious shift in philosophy for that to happen. Bevell's squads in Seattle don't really resemble the talent he has now, as these Lions seemingly have their outside receivers figured out. His Seahawks had their slot receiver and tight end secured. Danny Amendola is a familiar face to HC Matt Patricia and figures to be good for the culture he wants to build in Detroit, but he's obviously no Baldwin. He'll likely top out around 10-12 percent of the target share. If there is one thing is clear from Bevell's days with the Seahawks, it is that he might be able to keep four pass-catchers involved. Baldwin's low-20s usage is a good sign for Golladay, who should build on his 21.3 target share from 2018. Marvin Jones was actually averaging seven targets - one less than Golladay - through nine games before he was lost for the season, so a 16-18 percent share seems doable. Where both players can pick up some extra targets is at tight end. While T.J. Hockenson should one day become a Pro Bowl tight end, there's almost zero chance he'll see more than 10-12 percent of the looks from Stafford as a rookie.

Green Bay
HC Matt LaFleur

One of the first things LaFleur mentioned publicly after his hiring was that he believed a "committee approach" is the most effective solution regarding Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. If there is hope for fantasy owners with Jones, it is that Tennessee turned things over to Henry late last season when it became obvious the Titans were embracing his physical running style. With that said, we simply don't have enough of a sample size with LaFleur as the offensive coordinator to figure out if he is just promoting competition at the position this summer or trying to play mind games with Green Bay's early opponents. It is telling, however, that Jones used the offseason to get down to 5.3 percent body fat. Perhaps he feels he can change LaFleur's mind about a committee?

On one hand, the 26.4 percent target share Davis enjoyed last season has to be encouraging for fantasy owners of Davante Adams, who saw 27.5 percent of the looks in 2018; it's a number set to decline if Geronimo Allison stays healthy this year. On the other hand, it's slightly discouraging Davis didn't do more with those opportunities than he did. Owners will naturally (and probably rightfully) ignore such an observation because Aaron Rodgers and Adams > Mariota and Davis, but it could also speak to a potential inability for LaFleur to figure out how to best use his most dynamic receiver. (I think LaFleur deserves the benefit of the doubt, however.) It's reasonable for Allison (4.9 percent after four-plus games) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (11.9) to both exceed Taylor's 13.2 percent share from 2018. Jonnu Smith was only a factor late last season, so his 7.1 percent share was obviously not indicative of what Jimmy Graham might mean in this offense. However, if Jace Sternberger shows much of anything during camp, Graham could struggle to reach 10 percent target share after going for 14.5 in 2018. LaFleur talked earlier this offseason about getting his running backs more involved in the passing game as well. One would hope; Jones (5.7), Williams (6.7) and Ty Montgomery (3.7) combined for a 16.1 percent target share last year.

Los Angeles Rams
HC Sean McVay

There's no question it's going to be difficult to trust Gurley's knee this year. Had he not missed the final two regular-season games, his carry share would have been over 60 percent yet again. Those days MIGHT be over, but I don't think he's close to being done yet. As far as I'm concerned, this will be similar to when owners had to play it week-to-week with Brian Westbrook late in his career. I think there will be surprising and inconvenient inactive announcements, but I also think the Rams would have done more to address the position if they were overly concerned about him not being able to handle 200-250 carries. Yes, Brown and Darrell Henderson are candidates to steal roughly 80 carries apiece even with a healthy Gurley, but Los Angeles has it to spare (with 450-plus carries each of the last two years). For what it's worth, I think the handcuff to own this year will be Brown, not Henderson, at least in regards to carrying the load if/when Gurley sits. Henderson will obviously the more valuable standalone option of the two backups when Gurley plays.

As noted earlier, a hallmark of McVay's passing games has been balance among his top three receivers. Had Kupp been able to play more than half of the season, he probably would have joined Woods and Cooks with target shares right around 20 percent. It's anyone's guess how ready he'll be coming off ACL surgery (he got hurt in early November), so a slow start should probably be expected. Considering his game is built on quickness, I'd expect him to struggle to match his rookie year target share of 18.4. Woods and Cooks will probably be 1A and 1B early this season (and not necessarily in that order). Both will push - and probably exceed - 20 percent again this season. The major difference in this offense figures to be how much Gurley's target share drops after being in the mid-to-high teens in both seasons under McVay. Henderson could push for 10 percent even if Gurley plays all 16 games. Everett will probably climb over 10 percent for the first time in his career as well, but there are simply too many weapons (assuming Kupp is ready sooner than later) on this offense for him to become a fantasy star, at least until he is able to improve his blocking enough to make Higbee an afterthought.

Minnesota
OC Kevin Stefanski

Stefanski only called plays for the last three games of the season following the firing of former OC John DeFilippo, so it doesn't make a ton of sense to post those numbers. For what it's worth, Minnesota recorded one more rushing attempt in those three contests (83), although 40 of the runs came in a blowout win against the run-defense challenged Dolphins in Week 15. Dalvin Cook hasn't been healthy enough in either of his first two seasons for owners to get a good read on whether the Vikings want to use him as a workhorse, but it's worth noting he has yet to record double-digit carries in five straight games two years into his career. Still, it's a good bet Minnesota will try to get him to handle at least 50 percent of the rushing attempts in 2019 and make Cook prove he can't handle it. Rookie Alexander Mattison doesn't figure to come anywhere close to matching Latavius Murray's 39.2 percent carry share if Cook lasts the season, but the mid-20s should be his floor if the Vikings at least try to preserve their starter.

Last week, I said I can't remember any team having two receivers with a target share over 24 percent. Minnesota had two over 25: Adam Thielen (25.8) and Stefon Diggs (25.2). In addition to trying to run a more balanced offense, the Vikings probably don't want a repeat of two players accounting for more than 300 targets. Neither player figures to take that big of a hit (low 20s is probably their floor), but it's going to be on the shoulders of players Laquon Treadwell, Chad Beebe and Jordan Taylor to force the action. At the moment, the Vikings don't have a third receiver they trust enough to take some of the attention away from Thielen and Diggs. However, a healthy season from Cook alone may be enough to boost his target share around 15 percent and knock Minnesota's dynamic duo down a peg. Kyle Rudolph seems unlikely to match last year's 13.9 percent target share, if only because rookie Irv Smith is a lot like an oversized slot receiver at this point of his career. Perhaps Minnesota will turn to him as a regular option in the slot if Treadwell, Beebe and Taylor fail to live up to expectations. Nevertheless, he's still unlikely to push 10 percent of the target share.

New Orleans
HC Sean Payton

The Saints are a great example of why this kind of analysis can be useful, in part because it highlights how much more balanced they have become in recent years. Even with Ingram suspended for the first four games of last season, New Orleans threw the ball 155 fewer times and ran the ball 67 more times than it did just two seasons ago. With the Saints going all-in on trying to make sure they keep Drew Brees upright, don't look for last year's balance to go away. The big question when it comes to Payton's running game is this: does he use (or talk himself into using) Latavius Murray the same way he did Ingram last year? Ingram averaged just over 11 rushing attempts last year for a team that ran the ball an average of 29.4 times. Over that same 12-game stretch following Ingram's return from suspension, Kamara averaged 12.5 (which would put him on pace for 200 in a full season). If Payton can talk himself into giving two more carries per game to one of the NFL's 10 most efficient backs of all-time through his first two seasons, Kamara will come close to a 50 percent carry share and would be the odds-on favorite to be the most valuable player in fantasy football (especially given the frequency in which he has scored touchdowns throughout his first two seasons). Don't be surprised if UDFA Devine Ozigbo works his way into the equation at some point; his emergence would obviously damage Murray's potential fantasy impact.

Besides Kamara, the obvious star of the show in this passing game is Thomas. It's pretty clear he'll remain heavily involved no matter what his supporting cast looks like, but it seems reasonable Payton would probably like to see the offense not rely on him quite so heavily. It would not be overly surprising if he dropped to around 25-26 percent of the target share (admittedly not a big decline) and had those looks redirected toward Jared Cook, who seems like a good bet for target share of at least 15 percent. Because Kamara is the consummate mismatch in the passing game for this offense, he's likely to remain right around 20 percent. The Saints probably wouldn't mind having Smith and Ginn combine for about 20 percent, presumably with the hope the younger Smith shows he is ready to handle something close to Ginn's 13.3 percent target share from 2017. Brees doesn't mind spreading the love around, so it's a good bet that will happen again this season after Payton makes sure Thomas, Kamara and Cook account for 60 percent of the target pie.

New York Giants
HC Pat Shurmur

Only two Giants handled more than Eli Manning's 15 rushing attempts (4.2 percent carry share) last season. If Daniel Jones takes over around midseason, there's a fair chance he might get 10 percent. Otherwise, expect another massive workload for Barkley behind what should be an improved offensive line. Given the fact New York seems uncertain about who is backup running back is (Paul Perkins reportedly worked ahead of Gallman during offseason workouts), it is possible - albeit unlikely - Barkley handles closer to 80 percent of the rushing attempts. Either way, it would be a mild surprise if he doesn’t lead the league in carries, touches or both.

The plan for the Giants in 2019 is to have more balance on offense and let Barkley do as much of the heavy lifting as possible. Another 20 percent target share is not only possible for him, but likely. If we can only say for certain whether or not Shepard will be the primary slot receiver, then perhaps we could put him down for 22 percent of the targets. The same goes for Golden Tate if he operates as the primary slot receiver. At the moment, however, the lack of certainty makes both a bit difficult to project for target share and fantasy purposes. The likelihood is the duo will probably account for 40 percent of the targets one way or the other. A fourth potential player who could push 20 percent is Engram, who attracted 19.1 percent of the looks as a rookie under the previous regime in 2017. The reason the Giants could have as many as four players each accounting for about 18-22 percent target share is there's not much reason to believe either Corey Coleman or Cody Latimer will do much with their opportunity to take the third receiver job. The wild-card for that role is Darius Slayton. Unfortunately for the rookie, his game is speed. As most fantasy owners already know, Manning isn't throwing many downfield dimes at this stage of his career.

Philadelphia
HC Doug Pederson

There have been times during the Pederson regime that the Eagles have been tempted (or at least contemplated) relying more heavily on one back. (One such instance was at the beginning of last season with Ajayi.) However, in three years under Pederson, Philadelphia has very much been a committee backfield. The addition of Miles Sanders may change that eventually, but don't count on it happening in 2019 - especially considering how much time he missed this spring. The Eagles appear to be very comfortable with a 35-20-15 (percent) type of setup when it comes to distributing carries and the addition of an early-down pounder like Jordan Howard only reinforces the likelihood they will spread the wealth again this year.

Andy Reid disciples tend to emphasize a relatively equal target distribution, making last year a bit of a departure. Of course, it didn't help matters that Jeffrey missed three games, Tate was acquired midseason and Carson Wentz played in only 11 contests. The Eagles will almost certainly want to turn back the clock a bit to 2016 and 2017 if the trio of Jeffery, DeSean Jackson and Ertz can stay healthy. The Wentz-to-Ertz connection is undeniable, meaning owners of the tight end can probably bank on target share of at least 22-23 percent. Jeffrey has only played one full season in the last four years (2017), so it seems reasonable that a lack of durability will probably keep him just shy of reaching 20 percent. Jackson is an interesting case. Per Pro Football Focus, Jackson's best routes throughout his career have been the go, hitch and out. Incidentally, those are the same routes Wentz has enjoyed the most success with throughout his career, again per PFF. Due in part to his lack of durability over the years, Jackson's highest target share (at least since 2014) is 17.6 percent. If he can suit up for at least 14 games in 2019, I think he has a realistic shot of matching that. With the addition of a capable receiver like Jackson and the emergence of Goedert, expect Agholor to take a significant hit - maybe in the 10-12 percent area. That's roughly the same area I expect Goedert to end up, as I expect the Eagles to use two-tight formations on a more regular basis this season.

San Francisco
HC Kyle Shanahan

The 2018 season was a unique one to say the least for the 49ers, who only saw three skill-position players play more than 14 games (Kittle, Bourne and FB Kyle Jusczyk). Shanahan hasn't been opposed to using committee backfields, although he also has plenty of history of riding one back if the situation calls for it. He and GM John Lynch might have forced themselves into the former this spring, however, when they added Coleman. Shanahan himself dropped several hints during the spring that Breida, Coleman and Jerick McKinnon will earn their roles and that all of them could be active on game day. This offense will produce a fantasy-relevant rusher more weeks than not even if it is a three-headed monster, but it will be difficult to project which one will step up on a game-by-game basis - especially early in the season.

Much like the running back, there was far too much chaos last year to use it to help us project 2019. For example, Bourne played 159 more snaps than any other wideout after starting out the season No. 4 on the depth chart. He didn't exactly earn his promotion as a result of stellar play on the field. Pettis began to assert himself as the leader of the pack after the Week 11 bye and enjoyed a 15.3 percent target share over his final five games, which seems like a reasonable starting point for this year. After that, it's nearly impossible to predict. Goodwin was billed as the No. 1 leading into last season and will probably pace the complementary wideouts for as long as he can stay healthy - unfortunately, he's played 16 games only once in six NFL seasons - but the 2017 campaign proved he is capable of being a productive starting receiver in the NFL. Deebo Samuel should eventually start, although it's anyone's guess when that might happen. Samuel's physical style is certain to appeal to Shanahan, but he's bound to struggle for 10 percent of the looks if Pettis and Goodwin stay on the field. McKinnon was initially expected to handle the Devonta Freeman role in this offense before his ACL tear, and Shanahan couldn't stop talking last year about the mismatches he thought the former Viking could create. If he can stay healthy, McKinnon also seems like a lock for 10-12 percent of the target share. Last but not least, Kittle saw monster usage after the bye week, handling 32 percent of the targets over that span. There's no real reason for San Francisco to bring it down lower than last year's 26.5.

Seattle
OC Brian Schottenheimer

The message since the beginning of last season has been clear: run the ball as much possible. The Seahawks obviously didn't count on Davis seeing more work than Penny, but they undoubtedly had every intention on trying to run 500-plus times last year. That's unlikely to change just because Wilson is now the highest-paid quarterback in the league. What should be different this year is that Carson and Penny becoming more of a 1A/1B tandem instead of what happened in 2018 when Carson simply refused to give up the lead role. Penny has worked hard this offseason to get in better shape, and since Seattle will likely want to see some return on last year's first-round pick, expect both backs to push for 200 carries if both of them can avoid injury. Unlike last season when Davis was still around, there doesn't figure to be a committee if/when Carson gets hurt. If either Carson or Penny goes down this year, I expect the Seahawks to feature the other.

Each of Schottenheimer's last four offenses - dating back to 2012 with the Rams - has featured a lot of balance in terms of target share, as only Jared Cook (19.6) came close to topping 20 percent. Lockett is the best candidate to change that with Baldwin retired, but don't look for it to happen in 2019 either. The Seahawks added enough receivers this spring (most notably D.K. Metcalf) and have talked up Jaron Brown enough to the point where it is feasible Lockett remains in the high teens, while a handful of others hover around 10-12 percent. Moore, Brown and Metcalf figure to have the best shot of finishing on the high end of that. John Ursua has a realistic shot of taking over the slot job at some point, which would give Schottenheimer the option to keep Lockett outside more often. It's unlikely the seventh-rounder will see enough opportunities to be even a low-end bench option in deeper PPR leagues as a rookie, but he's got a better shot than most think. Owners only need to go back to early September last season to remember that Will Dissly quickly became a thing in fantasy. With Dissly recovering from a torn patella tendon, there's an opportunity for someone else playing for a coordinator with a history of keeping his tight end involved. As of now, Jacob Hollister appears as if he has the inside track. Consider him a dark-horse candidate for 10 percent of the targets.

Tampa Bay
OC Byron Leftwich

Even though HC Bruce Arians has entrusted Leftwich to be the play-caller, I will detail Arians' history instead. Why? The bulk of Leftwich's coaching career has come learning at the knee of Arians, who hired him in 2017. Also, it would be unfair to pin the disaster that was Arizona's offense on him after he was asked to take over for Mike McCoy in the middle of October last year (meaning he was mostly bound by McCoy's playbook). It's fair to say that Arians has shown a willingness to lean on one back throughout his career (Vick Ballard in 2012, Rashard Mendenhall in 2013 and Ellington in 2014 are non-David Johnson examples over the last decade). It suggests that if the hype surrounding Ronald Jones' spring practices carries over into the preseason, there's potential 200-carry upside with him on a team that will run the ball more effectively and more often than it did last year under former HC Dirk Koetter and OC Todd Monken. Undrafted rookie free agent Bruce Anderson also needs to be on owners' radar.

Led by players as Hines Ward and Fitzgerald, the slot receiver has received a ton of attention in Arians' offenses over the years. It's probably not realistic to expect Chris Godwin to join that group or command roughly a quarter of the targets as Fitzgerald did in each of the three seasons above, but Arians definitely turned some heads this spring when he said Godwin "is never coming off the field" and could be "close to a 100-catch guy." Only twice in Arians' coaching career as the No. 2 receiver finished with more than 120 targets, which sets the ceiling at about 80 receptions if he catches two-thirds of his targets (a fairly high mark). At any rate, it would seem as though Arians very much wants Godwin to see at least 20 percent of the targets, which would be a cool 4.7 percent increase from 2018. Evans commanded a career-low 22.3 percent of the looks last season; it's unlikely he'll take another hit in that area when his game matches up so well with Arians' "no risk it, no biscuit" offense. Arians routinely had a third receiver play a substantial role in his offenses in Arizona, so don't discount the possibility of someone like Breshad Perriman, Justin Watson or even rookie Scott Miller working his way in a double-digit percentage target share. There was an early narrative that O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate were doomed following Arians' hire because he so rarely ever uses tight ends. That myth seems to have lost steam in recent months; one reason might be that people discovered Heath Miller's career-high reception total came in 2009 under Arians. Tight ends will be a big part of the offense because Howard's talents will dictate it. If he stays healthy, a 15 percent target share should be his floor.

Washington
HC Jay Gruden

Gruden has typically preferred to trust one back to handle the majority of the workload throughout his NFL coaching career, dating as far back as BenJarvus Green-Ellis with Cincinnati in 2012. Derrius Guice's preseason ACL tear obviously changed the plan last year or Washington, which quickly shifted years and allowed Peterson to take on a workhorse role. Peterson signed a two-year contract in the offseason, suggesting he will remain fairly involved at the very least and perhaps start all season again if Guice's injury woes continue (he injured his hamstring while rehabbing his ACL tear and may miss the start of camp). Assuming both backs enter the season healthy, a reasonable expectation would be the two each finishing with a carry share in the mid-30s. It's a strong possibility Gruden wants Thompson to be as involved as he was in 2017, so it is realistic he ends up in the high teens in terms of carry share.

In each of the last two years, Crowder finished or was on pace for almost 20 percent. While that may partly be a function of the receiving talent in Washington since Garcon and Jackson left, the fact of the matter is the team isn't in much better shape in 2019. Enter Trey Quinn, who is going to be a player owners need to get familiar with over the next two months. It's entirely possible he pushes for 20 percent of the targets in 2019, especially if Case Keenum ends up starting the majority of games. If the offense to function at its highest level, Thompson and Reed need to be right alongside Quinn in terms of target share. Durability issues continue to haunt Thompson, who has been on roughly a 60-catch pace in each of the last two years before suffering a season-ending injury. Reed's health woes have been well-documented; if he could ever play all 16 games (he's never done so in six pro seasons), he will almost certainly lead the team in receptions and targets - as he did last season despite playing only 13 contests. Doctson has posted two remarkably unimpressive seasons since missing most of his rookie season in 2016 due to injury. Even with a solid 16 percent target share last year, he still only managed 44 catches. It's hard to be optimistic about him improving much on that. If Paul Richardson could ever stay healthy, he might have some low-end appeal. He'll likely need Dwayne Haskins to start in order to reach his ceiling, however low that may be.