One of the most difficult - and sometimes impossible - tasks for
any fantasy owner during the offseason is figuring out what players
have league-winning upside. Certainly, the Christian McCaffrey's
and Dalvin Cook's of the world come immediately to mind, but we
need some pretty good luck in a traditional snake draft to land
either one of those players.
To answer this "league-winner" question better, I decided
to take a position-by-position look at each player that enjoyed
rarified air over the last six seasons. By using the best of the
best in each position group over a six-year period as the basis
for what is great versus elite, we should be able to create realistic
parameters for what it takes to be a true fantasy difference-maker.
There will invariably be repeat entries (as in certain players
appearing multiple times on the list). It is also OK to view this
series of articles as something of a correlational study or a
series of interesting facts, but there's more value in this kind
of analysis than that. My top priority is trying to establish
what benchmarks fantasy owners need to shoot for at each position,
especially considering the different styles of players that exist
in the game.
Each position will be divided into multiple groups for the express
purpose of challenging how you currently think about the position
(and its upside). The "Rk" column to the left of each
player's name is where he finished among his peers over the six
years of this study. (For example, Darren Waller's 2020 season
ranked fourth among all tight ends in the last six years.) Tight
ends were split into the following groups:
Chain Movers - 11.4 YPC or lower Field Stretchers - 11.5 YPC or higher
Take note that a particular tight end may appear in both
tables. While that may not seem ideal, tight ends are often asked
to assume different roles from one season to the next. For example,
tight ends need to run shorter routes some years due to the limitations
of the offensive line, while others get the opportunity to run
deeper routes some years because his team acquired a quarterback
who is unafraid to make a tight-window throw 20-25 yards down
the field. I also acknowledge that while some of the observations
I will make in this four-part series are somewhat obvious, they
often bear repeating.
Below each table will be another table that summarizes the averages
of each group as well as the group minimum and maximum. The cutoff
at receiver for this study was 150 fantasy points (top 53 performances
in the last six years).
Chain Movers (2015-20)
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Tm
G
PPR
Tgt
Rec
Catch %
ReYds
YPC
ReTDs
3
Zach Ertz
2018
28
PHI
16
280.3
156
116
74.4%
1163
10.0
8
4
Darren Waller
2020
28
LV
16
278.6
145
107
73.8%
1196
11.2
9
9
Jordan Reed
2015
25
WAS
14
244.2
114
87
76.3%
952
10.9
11
16
Eric Ebron
2018
25
IND
16
222.2
110
66
60.0%
750
11.4
13
18
Zach Ertz
2019
29
PHI
15
215.6
135
88
65.2%
916
10.4
6
19
Kyle Rudolph
2016
27
MIN
16
209.0
132
83
62.9%
840
10.1
7
22
Zach Ertz
2017
27
PHI
14
202.4
110
74
67.3%
824
11.1
8
24
Austin Hooper
2019
25
ATL
13
191.7
97
75
77.3%
787
10.5
6
26
Ben Watson
2015
35
NO
16
190.5
110
74
67.3%
825
11.1
6
30
Zach Ertz
2016
26
PHI
14
183.6
106
78
73.6%
816
10.5
4
31
Logan Thomas
2020
29
WAS
16
176.6
110
72
65.5%
670
9.3
6
32
Robert Tonyan
2020
26
GB
16
176.6
59
52
88.1%
586
11.3
11
33
T.J. Hockenson
2020
23
DET
16
175.3
101
67
66.3%
723
10.8
6
34
Delanie Walker
2017
33
TEN
16
174.5
111
74
66.7%
807
10.9
3
35
Evan Engram
2017
23
NYG
15
173.6
115
64
55.7%
722
11.3
6
37
Jimmy Graham
2017
31
SEA
16
171.0
96
57
59.4%
520
9.1
10
38
Zach Ertz
2015
25
PHI
15
170.3
112
75
67.0%
853
11.4
2
40
Jack Doyle
2017
27
IND
15
169.0
108
80
74.1%
690
8.6
4
41
Dennis Pitta
2016
31
BAL
16
168.9
121
86
71.1%
729
8.5
2
42
Jordan Reed
2016
26
WAS
12
168.6
89
66
74.2%
686
10.4
6
45
Jason Witten
2015
33
DAL
16
164.3
104
77
74.0%
713
9.3
3
46
Austin Hooper
2018
24
ATL
16
163.0
88
71
80.7%
660
9.3
4
47
Tyler Higbee
2019
26
LAR
15
160.4
89
69
77.5%
734
10.6
3
48
Richard Rodgers
2015
23
GB
16
160.1
85
58
68.2%
510
8.8
8
50
Kyle Rudolph
2017
28
MIN
16
158.2
81
57
70.4%
532
9.3
8
51
Jason Witten
2016
34
DAL
16
152.3
95
69
72.6%
673
9.8
3
52
Kyle Rudolph
2018
29
MIN
16
151.4
82
64
78.0%
634
9.9
4
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Tm
G
PPR
Tgt
Rec
Catch %
ReYds
YPC
ReTDs
32
Group Average
-
28
-
15
187.1
106
74
70.1%
760
10.2
6
3
Group Minimum
-
23
-
12
151.4
59
52
88.1%
510
8.5
2
52
Group Maximum
-
35
-
16
280.3
156
116
74.4%
1196
11.4
13
Field Stretchers (2015-20)
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Tm
G
PPR
Tgt
Rec
Catch %
ReYds
YPC
ReTDs
1
Travis Kelce
2020
31
KC
15
312.8
145
105
72.4%
1416
13.5
11
2
Travis Kelce
2018
29
KC
16
294.6
150
103
68.7%
1336
13.0
10
5
George Kittle
2018
25
SF
16
258.7
136
88
64.7%
1377
15.6
5
6
Rob Gronkowski
2015
26
NE
15
255.6
120
72
60.0%
1176
16.3
11
7
Travis Kelce
2019
30
KC
16
254.3
136
97
71.3%
1229
12.7
5
10
Gary Barnidge
2015
30
CLE
16
237.3
125
79
63.2%
1043
13.2
9
11
Travis Kelce
2017
28
KC
15
233.5
122
83
68.0%
1038
12.5
8
12
Rob Gronkowski
2017
28
NE
14
227.4
105
69
65.7%
1084
15.7
8
13
Greg Olsen
2015
30
CAR
16
227.4
124
77
62.1%
1104
14.3
7
14
Travis Kelce
2016
27
KC
16
223.0
117
85
72.6%
1125
13.2
4
15
George Kittle
2019
26
SF
14
222.5
107
85
79.4%
1053
12.4
5
17
Darren Waller
2019
27
OAK
16
221.0
117
90
76.9%
1145
12.7
3
20
Greg Olsen
2016
31
CAR
16
207.3
129
80
62.0%
1073
13.4
3
21
Mark Andrews
2019
24
BAL
15
207.2
98
64
65.3%
852
13.3
10
23
Jared Cook
2018
31
OAK
16
193.6
101
68
67.3%
896
13.2
6
25
Tyler Eifert
2015
25
CIN
13
191.5
74
52
70.3%
615
11.8
13
27
Travis Kelce
2015
26
KC
16
189.5
103
72
69.9%
875
12.2
5
28
Jimmy Graham
2016
30
SEA
16
189.3
95
65
68.4%
923
14.2
6
29
Delanie Walker
2016
32
TEN
15
188.1
102
65
63.7%
800
12.3
7
36
Cameron Brate
2016
25
TB
15
171.0
81
57
70.4%
660
11.6
8
39
Mark Andrews
2020
25
BAL
14
170.1
88
58
65.9%
701
12.1
7
43
Martellus Bennett
2016
29
NE
16
168.1
73
55
75.3%
701
12.7
7
44
Jared Cook
2019
32
NO
14
167.5
65
43
66.2%
705
16.4
9
49
Mike Gesicki
2020
25
MIA
15
159.3
85
53
62.4%
703
13.3
6
53
Hunter Henry
2019
25
LAC
12
150.2
76
55
72.4%
652
11.9
5
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Tm
G
PPR
Tgt
Rec
Catch %
ReYds
YPC
ReTDs
22
Group Average
-
28
-
15
212.8
107
73
68.1%
971
13.3
7
1
Group Minimum
-
24
-
12
150.2
65
43
66.2%
615
11.6
3
53
Group Maximum
-
32
-
16
312.8
150
105
70.0%
1416
16.4
13
Observations
* The touchdown
average for the 53 tight ends over the last six seasons to score
at least 150 fantasy points was 6.6.
* Taken one step further, 35 of the 50 tight ends (70 percent)
to score at least six touchdowns over any of the last six years
- regardless of how much they produced in any other receiving
category - made the list.
* There are only nine instances of a tight end scoring double-digit
TDs. Kelce is responsible for only two of them.
* The lowest target total for a top 10 tight end from 2015-20
was Jordan Reed with 114 in 2015. The lowest YPC for a tight over
that same span was 10. The next lowest was 10.9.
* The average age of the 53 tight ends that qualified for this
study is 27.8. Sixteen players were 30 or older. With six entries,
tight ends in their age-31 season posted the third-highest total
of 150-point fantasy performances - including two top-10 and four
top-20 finishes.
* "Chain movers" caught only two percent more of their
targets than the "field stretchers" did. The latter
group enjoyed an advantage of nearly 214 yards on the former.
How can this help us for moving forward?
Five of the top seven and 11 of the top 15 finishers
at tight end averaged at least 11.5 yards per catch.
This is somewhat notable considering the field-stretching tight
ends had three fewer entries than the possession group did. There
is no question this data is heavily affected by the six top-27
appearances from Kelce and two apiece from Kittle and Gronkowski.
Age is just a number at tight end … to a point.
The 30-and-over crowd is represented well with 30 percent of
the entries. As I alluded to earlier, they are not just squeaking
past the 150-point mark either. However, it appears 32 is about
the extent fantasy owners should push their luck on tight ends
who make their living downfield - no 33-or-over tight end (of
the 53) averaged more than 11.1 YPC.
The path to a potential league-winner type at tight end
begins at six touchdowns.
When we consider that 70 percent of the tight ends to amass at
least six touchdowns over the last six seasons have scored 150
fantasy points, it would appear as if that is a good place to
start when choosing between options at the position. Twelve tight
ends in all scored at least six touchdowns last year and seven
made this list. Of the seven to make the list, only Gesicki (last
year's TE7) finished outside the top 40 in this study.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and has appeared as a guest analyst on several national sports radio shows and podcasts, including Sirius XM's Fantasy Drive, FantasyPros and RealTime Fantasy Sports. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.