One of the most difficult - and sometimes impossible - tasks for any fantasy owner during the offseason is figuring out what players have league-winning upside. Certainly, the Christian McCaffrey's and Dalvin Cook's of the world come immediately to mind, but we need some pretty good luck in a traditional snake draft to land either one of those players.

To answer this "league-winner" question better, I decided to take a position-by-position look at each player that enjoyed rarified air over the last six seasons. By using the best of the best in each position group over a six-year period as the basis for what is great versus elite, we should be able to create realistic parameters for what it takes to be a true fantasy difference-maker.

There will invariably be repeat entries (as in certain players appearing multiple times on the list). It is also OK to view this series of articles as something of a correlational study or a series of interesting facts, but there's more value in this kind of analysis than that. My top priority is trying to establish what benchmarks fantasy owners need to shoot for at each position, especially considering the different styles of players that exist in the game.

Each position will be divided into multiple groups for the express purpose of challenging how you currently think about the position (and its upside). The "Rk" column to the left of each player's name is where he finished among his peers over the six years of this study. (For example, Davante Adams' 2020 season ranked fourth among all receivers in the last six years.) Receivers were split into the following groups:

Possession - 12 YPC or lower
Intermediate - 12.1-13.9 YPC
Deep Threat - 14 YPC or higher

Take note that a particular receiver may appear in multiple tables. While that may not seem ideal, receivers are often asked to assume different roles from one season to the next. Some deep threats are needed to run shorter routes due to a new quarterback's limitations, some possession receivers are freed up to run intermediate routes as the team improves protection issues and so on. I also acknowledge that while some of the observations I will make in this four-part series are somewhat obvious, they often bear repeating.

Below each table will be another table that summarizes the averages of each group as well as the group minimum and maximum. The cutoff at receiver for this study was 225 fantasy points (top 94 performances in the last six years).

Note: I acknowledge that using YPC is not the best (or most reliable) metric for determining short, intermediate and deep receivers. Unfortunately, Pro Football Reference only has average depth of target (aDOT) information dating back to 2018, which would only account for roughly half of the receivers in this study. Pro Football Focus does not have the aDOT information organized in the way I want to present it, so YPC it is. Despite the flaws that come with using it, YPC does tend to tell us which of the three roles that receiver played that particular year.

* Possession receivers - at least how they are defined in this piece - need to catch roughly 75 percent of their 150 or so targets to have a prayer to be a league-winner. Of the 24 "possession" receivers to score at least 225 points, all 17 who did not catch at least three-fourths of their targets placed 31st or lower.

* There is no "sweet spot" YPC range per se, but the vast majority of top performers in the possession receiver group averaged between 11.1 and 11.9 yards per reception. Of the top five finishers among possession receivers, only Landry (2015) did so and failed to land in the 11.1-11.9 range. His secret: he boosted his fantasy-point total by adding 113 rushing yards and a touchdown.

* While nine of the 24 possession receivers scored six or fewer touchdowns, all of them had at least 90 catches and six had 100. Interestingly, Lockett (10 TDs last season) was the only other "possession" receiver besides Adams (2020) to score at least 10 times.

Observations

* Six of the top nine and eight of the top 13 finishers over the last six years are from the "intermediate" group. Fifteen of the 37 intermediate receivers scored at least 10 times and represent more than half of the 10-score wideouts in this study (28).

* The average catch rate for the entire intermediate receiver group in this study is 66.3 percent, only a 3.5 percent drop from the possession group. When we consider the possibility of something bad (i.e. interception or incompletion) happening goes up only 3.5 percent (essentially once every 32-33 passes) when quarterbacks throw roughly 2-3 yards further down the field, it makes sense to do so.

* Amazingly, 35 percent (13-of-37) of the wideouts in the intermediate group posted a catch rate of at least 70 percent, just a sliver better than the possession group (8-of-24, 33 percent).

* Nineteen of the 37 intermediate receivers (51.4 percent) attracted at least 149 targets, just slightly less than the possession wideouts (13-of-24, 54.2 percent). The intermediate receivers did not just skate by on shorter catches either, averaging 13 YPC. The possession group was at 10.9.

Observations

Note: There is an element of run after the catch that is not being accounted for in just using YPC, but it is also important to realize most intermediate receivers are not going to push for 14 or 15 yards per catch unless they are consistently winning on throws 20-25 yards down the field.

* Despite averaging 14 fewer catches than intermediate receivers and 20 fewer than possession wideouts, all 34 of the deep threats in this study topped 1,000 receiving yards. The group average of 1,261 yards was also the highest of the three groups.

* A catch total in the 60s - four catches per game during a 16-game season works out to 64 - seems like an awfully small number for a receiver to push for 1,000 yards, yet there are four such entries - three of which crossed the threshold rather easily.

* Although far from ideal, receivers can get away with a catch rate in the 50s and still enjoy plenty of success. Of the 15 receivers in this study to fall below 60 percent, four of them finished inside the top 22 and five finished inside the top 34. The four top-22 entries made up for it by scoring at least 11 touchdown catches.

* Julio Jones (2019) is the only receiver in the "deep threat" category to make the list in his age-30 season. Only four players - Jones included - did so in their age-29 season and only one (Jones again) did so as a 28-year-old.

How can this help us for moving forward?

The rock stars tend to live in the intermediate range of the field.

One way to look at the success of intermediate receivers in this study would be to say the top players are getting possession receiver volume further down the field, essentially taking one page from the possession guys and one page from the deep threats. Unfortunately, that is a bit too simplistic of an answer.

Take a closer look at the 11 top 20 entries from the intermediate group, which consists of eight different receivers. All of them possess exquisite route-running ability, a significant size advantage on just about every defender they face (and/or play the ball in the air extremely well) or both. The ability to create separation will almost always be part of the equation, which partially explains how "little guys" like Antonio Brown and Stefon Diggs can enjoy touchdown production similar to the "big guys."

The more interesting takeaway here is 15 of the 37 intermediate receivers scoring at least 10 touchdowns. When we consider the possession group only had two, it suggests the majority of offensive coordinators (and/or quarterbacks) view their possession receivers mostly as chain-movers and unworthy of consistently being the primary option near the end zone (unless they boast the aforementioned route-running ability or a significant size advantage).

Fantasy owners should be more cognizant of where receivers are targeted (or should be targeted given their skill set) and how good they are after the catch.

Deebo Samuel is a great example of how misleading YPC without context can be. His 2020 season was truly unique: his aDOT was a mere 2.2 yards, his YPC was 11.8 and his yards after the catch/reception (YAC/R) was 12.2. We can argue Samuel was essentially the same receiver in both seasons, yet his 2019 metrics say otherwise: 7.5 aDOT, 14.1 YPC and 8.3 YAC/R. YPC would suggest he was a deep threat in 2019 and a possession receiver in 2020. The truth is more along the lines of a possession receiver in 2019 and mostly a line-of-scrimmage wideout in 2020.

Samuel is admittedly an extreme example, but it does illustrate that YPC - or even aDOT or YAC/R - are not necessarily "sticky" stats (consistent from one year to the next). However, aDOT and YAC/R are much stickier than YPC and play a big role in what a player's YPC ends up being. With that said, it is not enough to look at one or the other. A player like Marquez Valdes-Scantling was fourth among qualified receivers last year in YAC/R (7.3). Is he a run-after-catch beast? Not exactly, especially with an aDOT of 18.3. That kind of aDOT and YAC/R combination should scream low-volume deep threat who escapes a desperate tackle attempt from the only defender that far down the field and waltzes his way the final 20 or so yards for a touchdown.

Catch rates of less than 60 percent do not automatically disqualify a receiver from potential league-winning status, but they need either a sizable aDOT/YPC or double-digit touchdowns to make up for it.

A surprising 15 of the 95 receivers to qualify for this study made the cut despite sporting catch rates below 60 percent. The average YPC of those players was 15.1. Only two players from that group had YPCs of less than 13 yards and only six of them had YPCs of less than 14 yards. Of those six players, five had at least nine touchdowns.

At a certain point with YPC (and, by extension, aDOT), receivers fall victim to the law of diminishing returns.

In other words, a receiver with an 18.5 YPC can be awesome because he only needs about three catches per game to be worth a start in fantasy and the odds are reasonably strong one of those plays will end up with him in the end zone. Over the course of the season, that kind of thing tends to be unsustainable. Although there is no shame in finishing at the back end of the list of a study such as this one, it starts becoming a bit difficult for a receiver to crack the top 20 performances over the last six years when the YPC starts creeping up over 15 unless it is accompanied by unusual volume for a deep threat. In fact, the only top-20 finish from a receiver with a 15.2-plus YPC was Hill in 2018. How did he do it? Well, 22 carries for 151 yards and a score probably did not hurt.

Unless he is an all-time great, it is usually a good idea to bow out on a receiver following his age-31 season.

There are four entries above from players 32 or older, Fitzgerald accounts for three of them. (Edelman is the other.) The easiest common denominator is that both were exceptional slot receivers in those seasons. Outside of those four exceptions, Marshall (2015) and Nelson (2016) are the only players above to dominate as 31-year-olds. This information leaves fantasy owners in a precarious position for a player like Julio Jones this season, but it seems more likely than not he qualifies for the Fitzgerald exemption and probably has another good year or two left in him - assuming good health.