It is much better to have an idea of where you stand on an incoming
talent before he is drafted, if only the public tends to cater to
popular opinion and "fit" after he is selected. Evaluating
the incoming rookie class before the draft gives us a more stable
ground with which to base our opinions and helps us avoid some of
those "popular" pitfalls.
The goal with this piece (and the position-by-position ones to
follow) is to provide a slightly quicker but still very thorough
overview of some of the top prospects that were not covered in
my draft profiles. The hope is that this
exercise will give readers all the information that could ask
for as they began preparing for upcoming rookie drafts.
Kenny Pickett Draft Profile
Vitals
College: Pittsburgh
Height/Weight: 6'3"/220
Hands: 8 1/2"
Age: 24 (at the time of the 2022 season opener)
High-end NFL Player Comp(s):
Kirk Cousins Low-end NFL Player Comp(s):
Young Andy Dalton
Position-Specific
Attributes and Grades
Attribute
Att Grade
Scale
Accuracy
8.5
10.0
Anticipation/Tight
Window
8.5
10.0
Decision
Making
8.5
10.0
Durability
9.0
10.0
Improvisation/Throw
On Run
8.0
10.0
Poise/Awareness
8.5
10.0
Vision/Read
Progression
9.0
10.0
Athleticism/Mobility
3.5
5.0
Arm
Strength
3.5
5.0
Film
Grade
67.0
80
Pre-Draft Fantasy Prospect
Grade* (out of 50): 37.5
* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For quarterbacks, a player needs to be a
realistic threat for 4,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards
to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional scarcity at
the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
Pickett's 2021 showing was a prime example of how most quarterbacks
need (and should be given) about three years to master an offense.
It was apparent from the beginning of this season that he had confidence
in just about every throw he was making. There were numerous examples
of him looking off the safety, throwing at the top of his drop-back
and quickly accepting his check-down when his first option was not
open. While he earned plenty of media attention (positive and negative)
for his "fake slide" 58-yard touchdown run in his final
college game against Wake Forest, it should not take away from the
fact that Pickett is an above-average runner capable of hurting
a defense in scramble (or RPO) situations. He consistently displayed
toughness throughout his career as a runner and inside the pocket,
so he can be trusted to show up game after game. Much like his ability
as a runner, Pickett has very good but not elite arm strength, which
is to say he can hit a receiver in stride 40-50 yards down the field
but is not someone that forces a defense to cover every blade of
grass. His footwork is well ahead of where most college quarterbacks
are nowadays, so he generally maximizes the downfield opportunities
he gets.
Negatives
Pittsburgh's all-time passing leader (one who broke many of Dan
Marino's old records) has his shortcomings, including his much-publicized
small hands that likely contributed to his 38 career fumbles in
college (six fumbles in 2021). The ACC Player of the Year's pocket
presence is also a bit behind where one would expect it to be for
a quarterback who logged 52 college games; he is more apt to drift
outside the pocket than he is to climb inside of it and doesn't
do the best job of anticipating pressure. How much of that was a
byproduct of him getting beat up behind his o-line in 2020? There
is a bit of a gunslinger mentality to his game and the confidence
he has in his ability betrays him at times; there are enough examples
of him getting greedy on his 2021 film that worked out for him but
will not usually fly in the NFL. Pickett will also turn 24 years
old in early June, making him a bit old for a rookie. (For comparison,
North Carolina's Sam Howell will not turn 22 until after the start
of the season.)
Bottom Line
Pickett is not a hard projection to the NFL since most of what he
will be asked to do moving forward are things he was asked to do
(and showed) at Pitt last season. While he did check down and/or
throw short a lot in 2021, he is not a "Checkdown Charlie."
He appears very comfortable working through his progressions and
can throw receivers open downfield. He has some work to do in learning
what his limits are and improving on his overall accuracy (intermediate
and deep), but there is little question he can and (will most likely
be) a solid NFL starter if he continues to play as he did in 2021.
While Pickett lacks the overall upside of some of the more athletic
quarterbacks that are now vogue in the league and is unlikely to
significantly improve the level of his teammates' play, his 2021
film suggests he has a high floor and Kirk Cousins-like ceiling.
Sam Howell Draft Profile
Vitals
College: North Carolina
Height/Weight: 6'1"/218
Hands: 9 1/8"
Age: 21 (at the time of the 2022 season opener)
High-end NFL Player Comp(s):
A more athletic and physical version of Baker Mayfield Low-end NFL Player Comp(s):
A more conservative Ryan Fitzpatrick
Position-Specific
Attributes and Grades
Attribute
Att Grade
Scale
Accuracy
8.5
10.0
Anticipation/Tight
Window
8.0
10.0
Decision
Making
8.5
10.0
Durability
9.5
10.0
Improvisation/Throw
On Run
7.0
10.0
Poise/Awareness
7.0
10.0
Vision/Read
Progression
7.0
10.0
Athleticism/Mobility
4.0
5.0
Arm
Strength
4.0
5.0
Film
Grade
63.5
80
Pre-Draft Fantasy Prospect
Grade* (out of 50): 37.0
* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For quarterbacks, a player needs to be a
realistic threat for 4,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards
to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional scarcity at
the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
Howell may lack the prototypical size to be an NFL quarterback,
but his dedication in the weight room is evident in how well put
together he is. When the Tar Heels lost the bulk of their offensive
playmakers to the draft following the 2020 season, Howell transformed
himself into more of a dual-threat than he had been over his first
two seasons in Chapel Hill. There is example after example on his
2021 film of breaking or shedding tacklers, resulting in 65 broken
tackles (per Pro Football Focus). While he mostly made headlines
last year for his running ability, Howell owns the ACC record for
the most touchdown passes ever by a player who played three or fewer
seasons (Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence both had 90). Also per
PFF, Howell's 19 touchdown passes under pressure since 2020 are
the most amongst FBS quarterbacks. The product of Sun Valley High
School is unlikely to cut up a defense with precision passing, but
he consistently maintains his poise amid chaos and regularly delivers
a ball that will give his receiver a chance to pick up yards after
the catch. While he does not have a cannon for an arm, he was wildly
successful on deep throws throughout his college career.
Negatives
While he makes up for it a bit with a high release point, Howell's
6-1 frame is far from ideal. There is ample evidence of him anticipating
well and working through his progressions, but there is room for
improvement in both areas. Howell did a good job of valuing the
football throughout his time in college (no more than nine interceptions
in any season and a total of 23 in three years), he took far too
many sacks (48 in 2021 and a total of 117). The first true freshman
to start the season opener in UNC history also needs to tighten
up just about everything from snap to release, as he routinely pats
the ball and tends to bounce on his feet in the pocket, which can
disrupt the overall operation of his delivery. His throwing motion
is also a bit elongated, which could hurt him more in the pros with
smarter and faster defensive backs on the prowl.
Bottom Line
Plenty has been made about Howell's disappointing final season on
campus, but what was expected of him after North Carolina sent Michael Carter, Javonte Williams, Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome to the pros?
It says a lot that he was still very productive despite their departures,
turning himself into a very good rushing threat (828 rushing yards,
including five 100-yard efforts on the ground in 2021) after running
for a total of 181 yards in his first two seasons. The fact he will
not turn 22 years of age until after the season kicks off further
adds to his appeal as a prospect. While he would benefit from a
year on the sidelines (as would most of the quarterbacks in this
draft), he is among the most ready of his positional brethren to
play as a rookie. Fit will be important to him like it is for most
non-blue chip players, but his shortcomings are mostly fixable.
Matt Corral Draft Profile
Vitals
College:
Ole Miss
Height/Weight: 6'2"/212
Hands: 9 5/8"
Age: 23 (at the time of the 2022 season opener)
High-end NFL Player Comp(s):
Mitchell Trubisky Low-end NFL Player Comp(s):
A more athletic Colt McCoy
Position-Specific
Attributes and Grades
Attribute
Att Grade
Scale
Accuracy
8.0
10.0
Anticipation/Tight
Window
8.0
10.0
Decision
Making
7.0
10.0
Durability
6.0
10.0
Improvisation/Throw
On Run
6.5
10.0
Poise/Awareness
8.0
10.0
Vision/Read
Progression
7.0
10.0
Athleticism/Mobility
4.0
5.0
Arm
Strength
4.0
5.0
Film
Grade
58.5
80
Pre-Draft Fantasy Prospect
Grade* (out of 50): 35.5
* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For quarterbacks, a player needs to be a
realistic threat for 4,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards
to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional scarcity at
the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
As cliché as it may sound, Corral's best quality may be his
heart. He is fearless as a runner - especially for a smaller quarterback
- and often competes as if he is playing his final down. After his
competitive fire, his next best quality might be his athleticism.
He is unlikely to hit many home runs as a runner, but he is elusive
and feisty enough to get under the skin of defenses when he calls
his own number. While the Ole Miss passing game was heavily schemed
with a lot of layups for the quarterback, the former University
of Florida commit showed the ability to process quickly and made
more than his fair share of NFL-type throws into tight windows.
Corral has a compact delivery and more of a live arm than one might
expect for someone of his size. He also lays the ball in nicely
for his receivers downfield.
Negatives
It remains to be seen if Corral can transition to an NFL offense
or if he can consistently move his team down the field if his first
option is taken away. The Ole Miss offense under HC Lane Kiffin
used more play-action with Corral than any other team in FBS last
year (60.4 percent), so he is likely underdeveloped - or at least
largely unproven - in terms of reading progressions on known passing
plays. While Corral did his fair share of running after the play
broke down, there were seemingly many more times where he left the
pocket without giving the play a chance to develop. Other times,
he will linger too long in the pocket. Durability became an issue
toward the end of last season and reared its ugly head again when
he opted to play in the Sugar Bowl against Baylor (and suffered
a high-ankle sprain). Although the ankle injury was not caused by
his lack of bulk, a player with his frame is destined to be a regular
in the training room if he does not learn how to preserve his body
better.
Bottom Line
Corral's grit may not be the type of thing that comes out in his
statistical production, but it is easy to see why Kiffin and the
rest of the Rebels' offense seemed to love him so much. His processing
skills and decision-making improved in a big way in 2021, providing
hope that he can eventually learn to live in the pocket more often
and avoid unnecessary punishment. Corral should prove to be a competent
NFL starter one day if can do this, although it may be difficult
for him to retrain his brain after logging more than 300 carries
in college. Adding some body armor would help his cause. He likely
needs at least one year to add bulk and acclimate himself to a more
traditional passing game after rarely operating as a true drop-back
passer. It will be critical for him to go to a team that has the
luxury of developing him behind a quality NFL starter.
Desmond
Ridder Draft Profile
Vitals
College: Cincinnati
Height/Weight: 6'3"/211
Hands: 10"
Age: 23 (at the time of the 2022 season opener)
High-end NFL Player Comp(s):
Alex Smith Low-end NFL Player Comp(s):
Blaine Gabbert
Position-Specific
Attributes and Grades
Attribute
Att Grade
Scale
Accuracy
7.0
10.0
Anticipation/Tight
Window
8.0
10.0
Decision
Making
6.5
10.0
Durability
9.0
10.0
Improvisation/Throw
On Run
7.0
10.0
Poise/Awareness
6.0
10.0
Vision/Read
Progression
7.5
10.0
Athleticism/Mobility
4.0
5.0
Arm
Strength
3.5
5.0
Film
Grade
58.5
80
Pre-Draft Fantasy Prospect
Grade* (out of 50): 34.0
* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For quarterbacks, a player needs to be a
realistic threat for 4,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards
to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional scarcity at
the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
Ridder is a rhythm passer who is considered an exceptional leader.
He was a key component in the rise of the Cincinnati football program,
which became the first Group of Five school to qualify for the College
Football Playoff. Ridder is usually very good at throwing off a
good platform and his experience (four-year starter, 1,304 pass
attempts) shows up in his ability to hold the safety with his eyes
and process quickly. The Louisville native possesses confidence
in his arm strength and is not afraid to deliver the ball into tight
windows as a result. Ridder has a good feel for when he needs to
add some touch on his throws as well. While he is not a spectacular
athlete or speed demon, Ridder can make the first guy miss and move
the chains when he tucks the ball and runs - even if he is unlikely
to bust one for 50 yards in the pros.
Negatives
While the two-time All-AAC selection flashes the ability to anticipate
and fit a ball into a tight window at an NFL level, there were far
too many instances in 2021 when he failed to pick up a defensive
back until it was too late or sailed what should have been an easy
throw. Ridder plays with a great deal of confidence, but his deep
ball tends to come up short if he is hassled in any way and his
relatively slow windup leads to way too many batted balls (26, per
Pro Football Focus). Ridder also showed the occasional ability to
work through his progression but rarely ever did so. He is a bit
of a lightweight for a 6-4 quarterback and could struggle to stay
healthy if he doesn't add at least 10-15 pounds of muscle. The lack
of muscle could explain his 36 career fumbles, although that is
likely more a function of not being more aware of pressure - which
is yet another area of concern for him. Last but certainly not least,
he took 14 sacks in his two most challenging games (bowl games against
Georgia and Alabama at the end of the last two seasons).
Bottom Line
People whose only exposure to Ridder was the SMU game last season
are probably wondering how he is not a lock to be the first quarterback
off the board. In that contest, he could do virtually no wrong.
His deep throws were money, his touch throws were exactly where
they needed to be and his athleticism (40-yard touchdown run) was
on full display. In the other five or so games I watched, he looked
like a Day 3 prospect at best - especially early in games. Despite
his test scores, Ridder often does not look like enough of an athlete
to live on his running ability while he picks up the speed of a
pro passing game, so he has little choice but to become a more accurate
passer if he wants to become something more than a long-term backup.
---
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now. Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.