Fantasy Football Today - fantasy football rankings, cheatsheets, and information
A Fantasy Football Community!




 Log In  | Sign Up  |  Contact      






A Six-Pack Worth Having - QBs/RBs



By Doug Orth | 11/1/24 |

Identifying favorable matchups has long been a critical part of my process (and ultimately, my success, in this hobby). The major difference between identifying favorable matchups during the summer and now is that the former is more of an educated guess based on the previous season as well as player strengths and weaknesses, while the latter comes with a bit more certainty based on roughly two months of games during the current season.

Over the next two weeks, my goal will be to highlight some non-elite players who should be cheaper trade targets (or solid waiver-wire adds in some cases) because they are poised to enjoy a strong second half of the season based on multiple "soft" matchups. I will highlight two quarterbacks and four running backs this week before turning my attention to receivers and tight ends next week. The focus for both articles will be the rest of the fantasy regular season. I will likely highlight favorable matchups for the fantasy playoffs in the coming weeks.

Note: Opponents highlighted in green represent what should be favorable matchups. Opponents highlighted in red represent what should be unfavorable matchups.

Quarterbacks

Caleb Williams (@ARI, NE, GB, MIN, @DET, @SF)

Week 8 notwithstanding, Williams' last month has mostly silenced whatever critics he had. Granted, his two big games came against the Panthers and Jaguars, but there are not many quarterbacks capable of posting a 7:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and running for more than 100 yards over any three-week period - regardless of the opponent. There is no question he failed to meet expectations against the Commanders in Week 8 (10-of-24 for 131 yards and 10 carries for 41 yards), but growing pains like that are to be expected.

With that said, Williams is set to face a host of neutral or favorable matchups over the final six weeks of the fantasy regular season. The Patriots (Week 10) are the only opponent who rank among the top third of stingiest defenses against fantasy quarterbacks. While the Vikings (Week 12) lead the league in interceptions and will be challenging for Williams to solve, they still rank in the top quarter of most favorable matchups for quarterbacks. There are two other reasons why managers should feel optimistic that Williams will thrive over the next six weeks: 1) his supporting cast - which was considered one of the best in the league before the start of the season - is intact and 2) he is providing a strong rushing floor with at least 34 yards in three straight weeks.

We are (obviously) not at the point where Williams can be considered a viable QB1, but he would be among my favorite bench stashes during the bye weeks on rosters where it makes sense to roster two quarterbacks. He could have QB1 upside against the Cardinals (Week 9), Packers (Week 11) and Lions (Week 13).

Bo Nix (@BAL, @KC, ATL, @LV, CLE, bye)

You know a player is flying under the radar in fantasy when he is named Offensive Rookie of the Month and still available in a bunch of fantasy leagues. Nix's year-to-date production as a passer (1,530 yards and eight TDs) looks relatively pedestrian, but it should be noted that seven of those eight TDs came in October. While most fantasy managers were right to assume Nix would bring something to the table with his legs after he ran for 1,613 yards in college, it would have been unrealistic to expect him to be on a 550-yard pace halfway through the season.

Quarterback streamers or managers looking for a bye-week fill-in this week will understandably be drawn to Nix against a Baltimore defense that has faced more pass attempts (308) and surrendered more passing yards (2,493) than any other team. While some of that has been a product of the Ravens playing with a lead so often, few secondaries have suffered more communication breakdowns than Baltimore.

None of the next four opponents has struggled to the same degree as the Ravens, but only the Chiefs (Week 10) feel like a difficult matchup. Whatever Denver lacks in explosiveness in the passing game, Nix can make up for as a runner - specifically when the Broncos move into scoring territory. Nix has as many carries inside the 5 as Javonte Williams (five) but has a 4-0 lead in touchdowns in that area. In short, if Denver scores a touchdown, the odds are usually very good that Nix will be attached to it somehow.

Running Backs

Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (WAS, @CAR, bye, TB, @DAL, NO)

There is no question Tracy's fantasy value has increased significantly over the last week, perhaps to the point where his managers - who likely grabbed him a few weeks with the hope he could serve as an emergency bye-week flex option at some point - may not want to move him. Why? Because they fear they will not be able to get what he is worth in the trade market because he has not "done it" for long enough.

The biggest obstacle ahead for Tracy is his health (currently dealing with a concussion), which is a strong consideration since he is still relatively new to being a running back after making a late transition to the position. (He never handled more than 132 touches in college.) The potential of the coaching staff going back to a player they know (Devin Singletary) if Tracy experiences ball security issues at some point is a secondary consideration that is well without the range of outcomes - although it is an unlikely outcome given what Tracy has already done with his opportunities.

The Commanders (Week 9) represent a neutral matchup for running backs, but it should be smooth sailing for a while after that. Carolina (Week 10), Tampa Bay (Week 12), Dallas (Week 13) and New Orleans (Week 14) currently rank as the first-, eighth-, fourth- and ninth-most forgiving matchups for running backs, respectively. If the Giants continue to feed him as they have recently (19-plus touches in three of the last four games), Tracy could easily power middling teams into the fantasy playoffs and very good teams into first-round byes.

Kareem Hunt / Isiah Pacheco (TB, DEN, @BUF, @CAR, LV, LAC)

Hunt was one of my favorite players as a rookie in 2017. (My belief in him as a potential RB1 that season was one of my best calls in 20-plus years of being a fantasy analyst.) So it comes with some sorrow to say what I am about to say: he is so much a shell of himself at this point that it surprises me he has a starting job in the NFL, much less one with the undefeated back-to-back Super Bowl champions.

However, volume is typically king when it comes to the running back position in fantasy football. Since making his season debut in Week 4 (a four-game sample), only Kyren Williams (23.8) is averaging more touches than Hunt (22.5). Both backs have been inefficient, to say the least, but at least Williams has popped a few big runs. Hunt's longest run this season is 13 yards on 84 attempts. What he has given Kansas City is what HC Andy Reid probably wants most from his running back while Pacheco is out - ball security.

Hunt's matchups so far have not been all that taxing, but they are about to get easier. The Bucs (Week 9), Bills (Week 11), Panthers (Week 12) and Raiders (Week 13) currently rank as the eighth-, sixth-, first- and 10th-most forgiving matchups for running backs. Considering the likelihood that Kansas City's defense will continue to keep the team in positive game script in just about every contest, Hunt should continue to be a solid fantasy RB2 with occasional low-end RB1 upside until Pacheco (hopefully) returns to the field at some point in early December.

Rhamondre Stevenson (@TEN, @CHI, LAR, @MIA, IND, bye)

It was about a month ago when HC Jerod Mayo "benched" Stevenson for fumbling too much. Including that game that he played behind Antonio Gibson (Week 5), Stevenson has been the RB15 by average. (He missed Week 6 with a foot issue.) Much like Hunt, the University of Oklahoma product has been inefficient. Unlike Hunt, he does not have one of the greatest quarterbacks to play the game, a decent offensive line or an offensive mastermind helping him out. It speaks volumes that Stevenson is performing as well as he is for his fantasy managers. With that said, consistency is hard to achieve in the best of offensive environments, so that might be too much to ask from him given his situation.

Stevenson's upcoming slate is far from a cakewalk considering the offense he is attached to, but he does have a few things working in his favor. The Patriots have kept games close more often than not and do not face anything resembling an offensive juggernaut for a while. Drake Maye has quickly proven to be a competent quarterback, which should help New England sustain drives. As a result, Stevenson should see more consistent volume than he did with Jacoby Brissett under center.

The Titans (Week 9) are unlikely to pull away from the Patriots, while the Bears (Week 10) have yet to maximize their offensive potential. The Rams (Week 11) are another middling matchup for running backs, but the Dolphins (Week 12) and Colts (Week 13) are why Stevenson is included in this piece. My preference would be to avoid any fantasy ties to this offense - outside of maybe Hunter Henry - in my leagues, but the 26-year-old running back should be involved enough in an improving offense to be worth using as a flex on contending teams.

Blake Corum (@SEA, MIA, @NE, PHI, @NO, BUF)

Kyren Williams stands to be the biggest beneficiary of the upcoming slate, but my focus will be on Corum for two reasons: 1) Williams is considered an elite option and 2) Williams is a poor bet to hold up under his current workload (22.6 touches per game - 19.9 carries and 2.7 catches), especially given his injury history. In my mind, very little has changed regarding my preseason stance on Corum and the likelihood that he will have an extended run at RB1 production at some point during 2024. Considering how much HC Sean McVay seems to love featuring one back, Corum is arguably the most valuable handcuff in fantasy right now.

There within lies the rub, however. If Williams stays healthy and you decide to hold onto Corum all season (and not specifically to cuff him to Williams, then you wasted a roster spot. Still, let us assume Williams does this year what he has not done yet in his pro career: play more than 12 games. Even if he plays 15, that leaves the door open for Corum to be a potential RB1 at least twice. What if that happens in Week 14 as your team is attempting to clinch a berth in the fantasy playoffs? Or maybe Week 16 and 17? The point is this: beginning with Todd Gurley and progressing through the years to Cam Akers, Sony Michel and now Williams, you want to be in business with the running backs of the Rams.

Regarding the Rams' upcoming schedule, only the Eagles rank lower than 11th in terms of the most forgiving defenses against running backs. Corum may be virtually useless for most or all of that time, but what if Williams goes down within the next two weeks and is out for the season? While none of us want to see a player suffer a serious injury, the fantasy manager holding Corum right now could be holding the key to the second half of the season in much the same way Jordan Mason powered his fantasy managers through the first four weeks of this season.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on Sirius XM. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Please check out his new podcast with JJ Wenner called "The All-Out Blitz."