Identifying favorable matchups has long been a critical part of
my process (and ultimately, my success, in this hobby). The major
difference between identifying favorable matchups during the summer
and now is that the former is more of an educated guess based on
the previous season as well as player strengths and weaknesses,
while the latter comes with a bit more certainty based on roughly
two months of games during the current season.
Over the next two weeks, my goal will be to highlight some non-elite
players who should be cheaper trade targets (or solid waiver-wire
adds in some cases) because they are poised to enjoy a strong
second half of the season based on multiple "soft" matchups.
I will highlight two quarterbacks and four running backs this
week before turning my attention to receivers and tight ends next
week. The focus for both articles will be the rest of the fantasy
regular season. I will likely highlight favorable matchups for
the fantasy playoffs in the coming weeks.
Note: Opponents highlighted in green represent what should
be favorable matchups. Opponents highlighted in red represent
what should be unfavorable matchups.
Week 8 notwithstanding, Williams' last month has mostly silenced
whatever critics he had. Granted, his two big games came against
the Panthers and Jaguars, but there are not many quarterbacks
capable of posting a 7:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and running
for more than 100 yards over any three-week period - regardless
of the opponent. There is no question he failed to meet expectations
against the Commanders in Week 8 (10-of-24 for 131 yards and 10
carries for 41 yards), but growing pains like that are to be expected.
With that said, Williams is set to face a host of neutral or
favorable matchups over the final six weeks of the fantasy regular
season. The Patriots (Week 10) are the only opponent who rank
among the top third of stingiest defenses against fantasy quarterbacks.
While the Vikings (Week 12) lead the league in interceptions and
will be challenging for Williams to solve, they still rank in
the top quarter of most favorable matchups for quarterbacks. There
are two other reasons why managers should feel optimistic that
Williams will thrive over the next six weeks: 1) his supporting
cast - which was considered one of the best in the league before
the start of the season - is intact and 2) he is providing a strong
rushing floor with at least 34 yards in three straight weeks.
We are (obviously) not at the point where Williams can be considered
a viable QB1, but he would be among my favorite bench stashes
during the bye weeks on rosters where it makes sense to roster
two quarterbacks. He could have QB1 upside against the Cardinals
(Week 9), Packers (Week 11) and Lions (Week 13).
You know a player is flying under the radar in fantasy when he
is named Offensive Rookie of the Month and still available in
a bunch of fantasy leagues. Nix's year-to-date production as a
passer (1,530 yards and eight TDs) looks relatively pedestrian,
but it should be noted that seven of those eight TDs came in October.
While most fantasy managers were right to assume Nix would bring
something to the table with his legs after he ran for 1,613 yards
in college, it would have been unrealistic to expect him to be
on a 550-yard pace halfway through the season.
Quarterback streamers or managers looking for a bye-week fill-in
this week will understandably be drawn to Nix against a Baltimore
defense that has faced more pass attempts (308) and surrendered
more passing yards (2,493) than any other team. While some of
that has been a product of the Ravens playing with a lead so often,
few secondaries have suffered more communication breakdowns than
Baltimore.
None of the next four opponents has struggled to the same degree
as the Ravens, but only the Chiefs (Week 10) feel like a difficult
matchup. Whatever Denver lacks in explosiveness in the passing
game, Nix can make up for as a runner - specifically when the
Broncos move into scoring territory. Nix has as many carries inside
the 5 as Javonte Williams (five) but has a 4-0 lead in touchdowns
in that area. In short, if Denver scores a touchdown, the odds
are usually very good that Nix will be attached to it somehow.
There is no question Tracy's fantasy value has increased significantly
over the last week, perhaps to the point where his managers -
who likely grabbed him a few weeks with the hope he could serve
as an emergency bye-week flex option at some point - may not want
to move him. Why? Because they fear they will not be able to get
what he is worth in the trade market because he has not "done
it" for long enough.
The biggest obstacle ahead for Tracy is his health (currently
dealing with a concussion), which is a strong consideration since
he is still relatively new to being a running back after making
a late transition to the position. (He never handled more than
132 touches in college.) The potential of the coaching staff going
back to a player they know (Devin Singletary) if Tracy experiences
ball security issues at some point is a secondary consideration
that is well without the range of outcomes - although it is an
unlikely outcome given what Tracy has already done with his opportunities.
The Commanders (Week 9) represent a neutral matchup for running
backs, but it should be smooth sailing for a while after that.
Carolina (Week 10), Tampa Bay (Week 12), Dallas (Week 13) and
New Orleans (Week 14) currently rank as the first-, eighth-, fourth-
and ninth-most forgiving matchups for running backs, respectively.
If the Giants continue to feed him as they have recently (19-plus
touches in three of the last four games), Tracy could easily power
middling teams into the fantasy playoffs and very good teams into
first-round byes.
Hunt was one of my favorite players as a rookie in 2017. (My
belief in him as a potential RB1 that season was one of my best
calls in 20-plus years of being a fantasy analyst.) So it comes
with some sorrow to say what I am about to say: he is so much
a shell of himself at this point that it surprises me he has a
starting job in the NFL, much less one with the undefeated back-to-back
Super Bowl champions.
However, volume is typically king when it comes to the running
back position in fantasy football. Since making his season debut
in Week 4 (a four-game sample), only Kyren Williams (23.8) is
averaging more touches than Hunt (22.5). Both backs have been
inefficient, to say the least, but at least Williams has popped
a few big runs. Hunt's longest run this season is 13 yards on
84 attempts. What he has given Kansas City is what HC Andy Reid
probably wants most from his running back while Pacheco is out
- ball security.
Hunt's matchups so far have not been all that taxing, but they
are about to get easier. The Bucs (Week 9), Bills (Week 11), Panthers
(Week 12) and Raiders (Week 13) currently rank as the eighth-,
sixth-, first- and 10th-most forgiving matchups for running backs.
Considering the likelihood that Kansas City's defense will continue
to keep the team in positive game script in just about every contest,
Hunt should continue to be a solid fantasy RB2 with occasional
low-end RB1 upside until Pacheco (hopefully) returns to the field
at some point in early December.
It was about a month ago when HC Jerod Mayo "benched" Stevenson
for fumbling too much. Including that game that he played behind
Antonio Gibson (Week 5), Stevenson has been the RB15 by average.
(He missed Week 6 with a foot issue.) Much like Hunt, the University
of Oklahoma product has been inefficient. Unlike Hunt, he does
not have one of the greatest quarterbacks to play the game, a
decent offensive line or an offensive mastermind helping him out.
It speaks volumes that Stevenson is performing as well as he is
for his fantasy managers. With that said, consistency is hard
to achieve in the best of offensive environments, so that might
be too much to ask from him given his situation.
Stevenson's upcoming slate is far from a cakewalk considering
the offense he is attached to, but he does have a few things working
in his favor. The Patriots have kept games close more often than
not and do not face anything resembling an offensive juggernaut
for a while. Drake Maye has quickly proven to be a competent quarterback,
which should help New England sustain drives. As a result, Stevenson
should see more consistent volume than he did with Jacoby Brissett
under center.
The Titans (Week 9) are unlikely to pull away from the Patriots,
while the Bears (Week 10) have yet to maximize their offensive
potential. The Rams (Week 11) are another middling matchup for
running backs, but the Dolphins (Week 12) and Colts (Week 13)
are why Stevenson is included in this piece. My preference would
be to avoid any fantasy ties to this offense - outside of maybe
Hunter Henry - in my leagues, but the 26-year-old running back
should be involved enough in an improving offense to be worth
using as a flex on contending teams.
Kyren Williams stands to be the biggest beneficiary of the upcoming
slate, but my focus will be on Corum for two reasons: 1) Williams
is considered an elite option and 2) Williams is a poor bet to
hold up under his current workload (22.6 touches per game - 19.9
carries and 2.7 catches), especially given his injury history.
In my mind, very little has changed regarding my preseason stance
on Corum and the likelihood that he will have an extended run
at RB1 production at some point during 2024. Considering how much
HC Sean McVay seems to love featuring one back, Corum is arguably
the most valuable handcuff in fantasy right now.
There within lies the rub, however. If Williams stays healthy
and you decide to hold onto Corum all season (and not specifically
to cuff him to Williams, then you wasted a roster spot. Still,
let us assume Williams does this year what he has not done yet
in his pro career: play more than 12 games. Even if he plays 15,
that leaves the door open for Corum to be a potential RB1 at least
twice. What if that happens in Week 14 as your team is attempting
to clinch a berth in the fantasy playoffs? Or maybe Week 16 and
17? The point is this: beginning with Todd Gurley and progressing
through the years to Cam Akers, Sony Michel and now Williams,
you want to be in business with the running backs of the Rams.
Regarding the Rams' upcoming schedule, only the Eagles rank lower
than 11th in terms of the most forgiving defenses against running
backs. Corum may be virtually useless for most or all of that
time, but what if Williams goes down within the next two weeks
and is out for the season? While none of us want to see a player
suffer a serious injury, the fantasy manager holding Corum right
now could be holding the key to the second half of the season
in much the same way Jordan Mason powered his fantasy managers
through the first four weeks of this season.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and joined the
Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season. He is
also a highly successful high-stakes player who often appears as
a guest analyst on Sirius XM. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association. Please check out his new podcast with
JJ Wenner called "The All-Out Blitz."