* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For running backs, a player needs to be a
three-down option as well as a realistic threat for 1,000 rushing
yards and 500 receiving yards to be a candidate for a perfect
grade. Positional scarcity at the pro level is also a part of
the equation.
Positives
Solid blend of power and build-up speed, especially for a
235-pound back of his size (tallied seven runs of at least 50
yards and 13 percent of his 597 career carries went for at least
10 yards).
Willing to drop the hammer more often in short-yardage and/or
red zone situations.
Lighter on his feet than the average big back and patient
enough to change course if he sees a cutback lane.
Late commitment to the running back position - recruited
as a linebacker and committed as a safety to Wisconsin before
settling on running back right before camp his freshman season
- offers hope he can enjoy significant growth on some of the
finer points of being a running back over the next 1-2 years.
Typically showed well as a blocker and possesses the size
and willingness to be great at it; the few technique/recognition
issues he did have could easily be the product of his relative
inexperience at his position.
Will not turn 21 years old until after the 2024 regular season
ends.
Negatives
Contact balance is good most of the time but still a bit
disappointing from a "power back"; fails to maximize
power potential in large part because he doesn't always have
his shoulders square with his pads at the point of impact.
Vision to see a cutback lane as an inside runner is usually
good, but his ability to see the whole field is in question.
Occasionally guilty of bouncing runs when he should stay
inside and staying inside when he should bounce a run.
Elusive enough to occasionally sidestep a defender in the
hole but too tight-hipped to do much more laterally than that.
Capable dump-off option but not a player that offers much
in the way of route diversity.
Can get a bit loose with the ball in his hands, reflected
in the fact he fumbled nine times on 597 career carries.
Bottom Line
Allen is a challenging evaluation. There were times during his
freshman year that Wisconsin appeared to have at least a poor
man's version of Badger alum Jonathan Taylor in its backfield.
He became a foundational piece of the offense just three games
into his college career and seemingly wore down every Big Ten
defense he faced after that in 2021 - as an 18-year-old. His production
dropped off each year after that, although a midseason coaching
change in 2022 and a scheme change to a more pass-heavy attack
in 2023 unquestionably had something to do with that. Injuries
(ankle, shoulder) undoubtedly also played a role in Allen's efficiency
taking a hit in 2022 as well. With that said, it is important
to remember he committed to the running back position full-time
only three years ago. It speaks volumes about his potential that
he could be as productive as he was over three seasons (597 carries
for 3,494 yards and 35 rushing touchdowns) mostly on talent.
Another thing that should not get lost when considering the former
four-star recruit's future is how much Wisconsin relied on him
to carry the offense (and thus, how much attention he demanded
from defenses). Did he bulk up to protect himself, thereby sapping
him of some of his natural speed and explosiveness? It is worth
considering. (He supposedly played at 245 pounds at times in 2023
before getting back to his usual weight in time for the NFL Combine).
The problem with that excuse is that some of his worst tape was
in 2022 at 235 pounds. He appeared sluggish in some games that
season, only to look like the freshman version of himself a week
or two later. Whatever the explanation may be, it does not explain
why Allen's contact balance and power dropped off as a whole after
2021. His vision and running discipline are also areas of mild
concern, although those could also be a product of him being a
relative neophyte at his position.
While it would be foolish to separate his freshman tape from
his sophomore and junior tape completely, there is little doubt
in my mind that the 2021 version of Allen would be the unquestioned
top running back in this draft class. That has to factor into
the equation when it comes to projecting his NFL future. Bigger
backs with big-play ability who can also function in the passing
game are rare. Now consider he enters the NFL at least 1-2 years
younger than most of his draft classmates. Allen may benefit from
dropping 5-10 pounds, which could unlock another dimension to
his game (specifically increasing his explosiveness and lateral
agility). It will be critical that he finds his fit at the NFL
level, presumably in an offense that prioritizes a physical running
game and one that will allow him to continue his running back
education at a comfortable pace (like the Chargers now under OC
Greg Roman and with lead back Gus Edwards). Assuming Allen is
eased into things as a rookie, he should be considered a strong
Day 3 investment due to the likelihood that he will end up being
a two-contract running back. If he ever recaptures his 2021 form
and/or fully embraces being a power back, he could eventually
emerge as a top 20 back in the league. If not, he should settle
in as a high-end tandem back.
Doug Orth has written for FFToday since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
