Perhaps there is a reason for this, besides dumb luck.

Even more important, perhaps we can analyze what has gone on in the past, learn from it and get in on the fun. Be one of the guys who is always competitive. Win every once in a while. Or even begin to dominate the league.

I have done this analysis for the annual FFToday Staff Draft. Hopefully, what I’ve learned will translate to your league.

Over the past four seasons, one owner, Doug Orth, has won two times (2019, 2017) and probably should have won a third ring. He went 12-1 during the regular season in 2016, but my 7-6 team got hot at the right moment and upset its way to the title.

Do you want to be like Doug?

Go “Old School.”

Both times he won the championship, he started the draft selecting running back-running back. Even when he didn’t start RB, RB in 2016 and had the best regular season record, he filled out his starting backfield by Round 4 going WR, WR, RB and RB.

In the charts below are the winner’s draft day rosters from the past six seasons. Five of six times the winning team took a running back in the first round. Three of the six teams, selected running backs in the first and second rounds. Only once did an owner wait past the fourth round to complete their starting backfield. The “zero running back strategy” be damned.

Second, the average pick for the first quarterback drafted by the six past champions is pick No.83 – the end of the seventh round. That average goes down even further when you realize that Mr. Orth won last season with Lamar Jackson as his primary quarterback, not his top QB selection Carson Wentz, and Jackson was drafted at No. 124.

Another thing about when to pick your quarterback. The owner who grabbed the first quarterback off the board is still looking for his first ring. While they have produced a nice win percentage (.615), they haven’t won a championship. And isn’t that the ultimate goal? Therefore, those wanting to jump in early for exciting young quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes (ADP 18.8) or Lamar Jackson (21.0) … beware.

Third, an elite tight end isn’t necessary to win your league. Sure, Travis Kelce or George Kittle is nice to see slotted in at the position, but the following were the first tight ends drafted by the six winning teams and their season-ending position rank based on FPts/G; 2019 - Jared Cook (10th), 2018 - Kyle Rudolph (12th), 2017 - Jimmy Graham (8th), 2016 - Clive Walford (41st), 2015 - Josh Hill (75th) and 2014 - Charles Clay (13th).

Even more interesting is that top-10 tight ends can be found on the waiver wire. Two times the winner claimed a top-10 tight end off waivers during the season. In 2016, I picked up Rudolph, who finished fourth. In 2014 the fantasy owner claimed Delanie Walker and he finished seventh.

In 2015, the winner’s second tight end was Jordan Reed, who was drafted near the end of the 15th round and actually won the position. Spending a lot of capital on a tight end is an unnecessary luxury.

Finally, defense may win the Lombardi trophy, but not your fantasy league. The average round for the defense/ST is the 15th, including one team who simply didn’t draft one at all.

The bottom line in our fantasy league is spending all early capital on running backs and receivers seems to be the best plan. Resist any urge to get the top quarterback and select one in the middle or later rounds and don’t worry about tight ends or defenses. Hope this helps you.