Good OBJ

It was midway through Beckham’s first season that the world saw all of his amazing talents on display with the now famous one-hand, over-the-head catch against the Dallas Cowboys. It was a portent of things to come for the LSU alum. As a rookie he racked up 91 receptions for 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns good enough for 297 fantasy points and seventh-best in the league. He finished fifth in 2015 and fourth the next season. But injuries marred both 2017 and 2018, although when on the field, he still averaged 18.5 and 18.3 FPts/G, respectively.

He was also a handful for management on and off the field and in March of 2019 he was traded to the Cleveland Browns for a first-round pick which would become Dexter Lawrence, a third-round pick (Oshane Ximines) and Jabrill Peppers.

Bad OBJ

The Browns traded for the mercurial wideout to bring their team up to new heights. But the 2019 Browns with Freddie Kitchens as head coach, Todd Monken as OC and Baker Mayfield under center were too heavy a lift. He put up a 1,000-yard season, but didn’t score much and fantasy owners saw his perennial 18-24 FPts/G average slump to 12 points-a-game. The next season was no better, and in fact worse, because he only played in seven games due to injury. He wanted out and was waived by the Browns on November 8, 2021. A week later the Rams signed the wide receiver and he had his moments in the Rams’ Super Bowl drive, particularly in the first half of SB LVI with 52 yards and a score before blowing out his knee.

He hasn’t played a down since that game.

Expectations for 2023

The money offer (one-year $15 million guaranteed with bonuses which could bring the total to $18 million) from the Ravens is so far above what most expected him to receive that he might have taken this big bag regardless of who might be the starting quarterback for Baltimore on Opening Day 2023. However, from the Ravens’ management side… Why would you make a big move like this if you didn’t believe you could contend this season?

You don’t contend with a rookie quarterback or a journeyman. This team only competes to win a championship with Lamar Jackson throwing the ball to OBJ, Rashod Bateman and tight end Mark Andrews. Plus, no one in his right mind would think that OBJ or his agent didn’t make a call to the star quarterback to ask him of his intentions.

Using the assumption that Jackson will be under center, here is what you can expect from Odell Cornelious Beckham Jr. this season…

OBJ will not be a top-10 fantasy wide receiver as in his early days with the New York Giants.

The Giants had no tight end on their roster (think Will Tye and Larry Donnell) who warranted seeing 125 targets a season as does his new teammate Andrews (7.41 targets per game over the past four season). He’ll also share targets with up-and-coming receiver Rashod Bateman who’s 2022 season ended far too early due to a Lisfranc injury. The Lisfranc injury can sometimes be hard to come back from which might have been a small reason for Jackson’s reluctance to sign on the dotted line.

Beckham should easily improve on his Cleveland years just based on the better quality quarterback throwing him the ball. But he also won’t be the “target monster” he was in New York (10.5 targets-per-game or 178 for a 17-game schedule). Additionally, Eli Manning used to throw 600 times a season and Lamar has never cracked 402. The Ravens will still be a run-first organization behind J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Jackson himself.

My estimate is 110 targets with a catch percentage slightly higher than New York because Jackson will be more selective in throwing to OBJ than Manning, who used to force the ball to his only big-play receiver. I’ll use 65-percent to reward him with 71 catches for 994 yards and seven touchdowns. This would result in 212.4 PPR fantasy points and based on last year’s statistics would rank him at No. 22 between the Jets’ Garrett Wilson and Denver’s Jerry Jeudy.