Kickers -

Think your kicker choice doesn't matter? Think again. How many matchups have you lost by one or two points?

But... you are thinking, it's almost impossible to choose the right kicker from year-to-year. I used to think that too. I would simply find a warm weather or dome kicker and call it a day.

But this week I went back and looked at the last two seasons. Here is what I found out.

Choose Brandon Aubrey if you have the opportunity! He's finished first and fourth the past two seasons. It's an even larger advantage if your league gives out bonus points for longer field goals. He was 14-of-17 from 50-yards or more (82.4%) last season and is 24-of-27 the past two years. That's a sick 88.9% from long distance!

But if someone takes him way too early? It happens, then what do you do?

I have found a statistic which may help you in your kicker selection. Its "red zone attempts." In the past I thought teams which couldn't move the ball ended up kicking a lot of field goals. But the truth is that you want teams who get to the red zone most often.

A stunning 75% of the top-10 kickers came from teams in the top-half of "red zone attempts."

Last season, the top-four teams in "red zone attempts" all finished in the top-eight. Eight of the top-10 came from the top half of teams in "red zone attempts." Aubrey was an exception as was Cameron Dicker.

In 2023 eight of 10 finished in the top half including Aubrey and Justin Tucker finishing 1-2 with Dallas (71 times) and Baltimore (68) leading in "red zone attempts."

Over the past two seasons, no team ranking 24th or worse in "red zone attempts" has produced a top-10 kicker. If an offense can't at least mount some kind of drive... you don't want their kicker. Don't think the Giants, Browns, Panthers, Saints, Jets or Titans can move the ball, then stay away from their kickers.

Defense / Special Teams -

There is always one team which comes out of nowhere and turns defense into offense producing "pick-sixes" and fumble returns for a touchdown. Last season the Seahawks scored four times on defense and the Broncos three times. But that's hit or miss. Remember the year the Cowboys returned six touchdowns? Or the Patriots producing seven defensive touchdowns in 2022? I think it's much easier and more reliable to choose a defense based on sack potential.

Last season, the Broncos led all teams in sacks and produced a league-leading 6.5 FPts/G. The five sack-leading teams all finished within the top-eight in defense/special teams. The previous season the top-five in sacks finished top-seven or better.

Who do I like in 2025?

Denver is the No.1 option again. They were tough against the run, ranking third in yards-per-game (96.4) which forced teams to pass. When they did fade back to pass the Broncos led the league in sacks with 63.

Additionally, I like the Baltimore Ravens. They stop the run too and make opponents one-dimensional. Then they attack the quarterback. The Ravens added to their defense in the offseason, drafting Malaki Starks early and adding Jaire Alexander to an already formidable defense making them my second choice. They started slowly in 2024, but over the final seven regular season games didn't yield 25 points in a game.

My third choice is Houston. They finished third last season which was quite a feat considering how badly the Texans' offense struggled. They were always with their back against the wall as the offense gave up 26 turnovers. I believe the Houston offense will be better and more sure-handed in 2025. C.J. Stroud could hardly be any worse. Head Coach DeMeco Ryans is a defensive guy and it won't hurt that the division quarterbacks, as a group, might be the worst division in the league. Daniel Jones, rookie Cam Ward and a disappointing Trevor Lawrence don't strike fear into defensive coordinators.

Bottom line… Denver, Baltimore or Houston.