In 2020, quarterback Baker Mayfield led the Cleveland Browns
to their first winning season since 2007, throwing for 3,563 yards,
26 touchdowns and eight interceptions. However, he’s only
declined since then. The 2018 first overall pick was traded to
the Carolina Panthers last offseason for a day three selection,
but they’d release him on Dec. 5.
The Los Angeles Rams picked him up on a one-year deal, but he
chose to become a free agent after the season ended. He finished
the 2022 season with 201 completions for 2,163 yards, 10 touchdowns
and eight interceptions in 12 games, ranking as the 29th-best
quarterback in fantasy football, averaging just 13.6 points per
week.
The Buccaneers were in desperate need of a quarterback with experience
due to Tom Brady retiring, so they signed Mayfield as a bridge
quarterback to … ?. Assuming he wins the starting job out of camp
over Kyle Trask,
Mayfield will have the benefit of playing with Pro Bowl caliber
receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Even so, the team is projected
to struggle with a weak offensive line and a new system led by
new offensive coordinator Dave Canales. A couple of spike weeks
can be expected but overall, there’s no juice to drafting Mayfield
toward the back-end of your draft. He’ll likely be an afterthought
in most 1QB redraft leagues.
Rachaad White is expected to take a big leap in his second NFL
season. The running back played in 16 games last season but only
started in eight as he split time with Leonard Fournette, recording
129 carries for 481 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He should
be a solid option for PPR leagues as he hauled in 50 receptions
(11th-most by running backs) for 290 yards and two touchdowns
through the air last season.
With Fournette out of the picture nobody behind him pressing
for playing time, White is expected to handle the bulk of the
running back load. We should expect an increase in touches from
a year ago (179) but Baker Mayfield at the helm throws some cold
water on the upside of all the skill position players. Because
of this, White is expected to be a top-25 running back and should
be taken in rounds 4-5 of fantasy football drafts. At just 24-years-old,
he has an excellent shot at being the focal point of the offense
but lacks RB1 upside given the mediocre projection of the offense
as a whole.
The Miami Dolphins signed running back Chase Edmonds last offseason,
but traded him to the Denver Broncos on Nov. 1. Three weeks later,
he’d be sent to the IR for the rest of the season and was
then cut by the Broncos on March 10. He finished last season with
68 carries for 245 yards and two touchdowns.
The Buccaneers picked him up just six days after his release
to add depth to their running back room. It’s still uncertain
if Edmonds will win the RB2 job as he battles with Ke’Shawn
Vaughn in camp. However, Edmonds has a couple more years of experience
which should give him the edge. With that being said, Edmonds
is not a target in most drafts and will likely be a waiver wire
pickup should something happen to Rachaad White.
Godwin has been a solid WR2 the last two seasons with Tom Brady
including ranking as the WR18 with 224.8 fantasy points a year
ago. He topped 100 catches for the first time in his career on
142 targets (10th among WRs). The obvious issue this season with
Godwin and Mike Evans is the downgrade at quarterback from Brady
to Baker Mayfield and perhaps Kyle Trask later in the season.
The risk of a stagnant offense in 2023 is showing in Godwin’s
ADP which currently sits on the WR2/3 border in the WR25 range
(PPR leagues). Godwin’s youth – 27 years-old and right in the
middle of his prime – is giving him the edge over his running
mate Evans (30) among fantasy drafters. He should be the more
consistent of the two standout Bucs’ receivers as he operates
in the short to intermediate areas of the field making him a safe
bet in PPR leagues, especially if you can snag him a few picks
after his ADP.
Make it nine-straight seasons with at least 1000 receiving yards
for Evans including last season when he posted 77 receptions for
1,124 yards and six touchdowns. Evans had 27 fewer receptions
than Godwin, but over 100 more yards and three more touchdowns
as he’s yards per reception (14.6) dwarfed Godwin’s
(9.8).
Evans turns 30-years-old on Aug. 21, hitting the general age
of decline. His streak of consistency will need to overcome the
age curve and the quarterback downgrade from Tom Brady. Is it
possible? Mayfield has excelled with the deep ball on occasion
his career, using the play-action pass, but it’s safe to
wonder if this is the season Evans’ fantasy numbers take
a slight dip. The fantasy community thinks so, as Evans is currently
going a few picks later than Godwin in the WR28 range. Evans is
more volatile than Godwin given the deep targets which is something
to keep in mind as you build out your WR room. He’s an uncomfortable
selection in the mid-rounds given the uncertain nature of the
Bucs offense in 2023.
Gage spent four years with the Atlanta Falcons and was the team’s
WR2 in 2020 and 2021. He had over 65 receptions and nearly 800
yards and four touchdowns in both seasons. In Tampa Bay last season,
Gage finished with 51 receptions for 426 yards and five touchdowns
in 13 games. While these numbers aren’t stellar, they are
solid for a WR3, especially when the top two receivers in the
Bucs offense each recorded over 75 receptions and 1,000 yards.
Because of this, and the mediocre play expected at quarterback,
Gage won’t be drafted in fantasy football leagues, but he
has proven that he’s capable of filling traditional WR2
numbers. If Godwin or Evans goes down, the 27-year-old should
be a quick waiver wire pickup.
Cade Otton was certainly under the radar during his rookie season
in 2022, finishing with 42 receptions for 391 yards and two touchdowns.
In terms of fantasy football, he had his moments, but offered
just four games over 10 PPR points with a high of 17.8 coming
against the Los Angeles Rams.
With Godwin, Evans and even Gage the first three options in the
passing game, Otton’s numbers aren’t likely to take
a huge leap in 2023, especially since Brady isn’t throwing
the ball. Because of this, Otton is off the radar in fantasy football
leagues and probably won’t come off the waiver wire either.
