Editor's Note:
ADP based on 12-team non-PPR scoring system.
The word “value” gets thrown around plenty during
fantasy drafts, and for good reason. Acquiring key contributors
in the right round without reaching for need can make or break
fantasy owners. That’s why mock drafts are important –
to help owners get an idea of which rounds a player might go in.
But during these busy summer months, not everyone has the time
for that, so we’re going to give you a position-by-position
breakdown of overvalued and undervalued players based on their
Average Draft Position (ADP).
Running back Carlos Hyde will have a chance
to prove he was worth a second-round draft pick in 2014.
The Case For Hyde Being Undervalued: He’s the clear
number one back on a team that is an unabashed running outfit.
The Case Against Hyde Being Undervalued: He didn’t
have a huge amount of success as a rookie and the 49ers’ offensive
line took a hit in the offseason.
Verdict: Playing behind Frank Gore, Hyde accumulated
modest totals, with 333 rushing yards and four touchdowns while
averaging 4.0 YPC. With Gore off to Indianapolis, Hyde will take
over as San Francisco’s top back, and at the very least should triple
the 83 carries he received last season. That number will include
the goal-line variety, as the team’s number two runner, Reggie Bush,
certainly won’t be a vulture in that regard. Hyde may not be a RB1
just yet, but it wouldn’t be surprising if that was the case at
the end of the season.
The Case For Bernard Being Undervalued: He’s a
true dual-threat with solid production in his first two NFL seasons.
The Case Against Bernard Being Undervalued: Jeremy
Hill is Cincinnati’s clear-cut number one running back.
Verdict: Bernard has had very similar rushing totals
in each of his two seasons, running for 695 yards and five scores
in 2013 and 680 yards and five scores last year while picking up
over 850 yards with five touchdowns as a receiver. Obviously, Hill
will get the lion’s share of the carries, but there will still be
plenty of touches for Bernard. He had double-digit carries in nine
of his 13 games last season and hauled in three or more receptions
seven times.
The Case For Bell Being Undervalued: He’s Detroit’s
top back and can be effective on the ground or in the passing game.
The Case Against Bell Being Undervalued: He’s coming
injury (knee, Achilles) and rookie Ameer Abdullah is poised to get
plenty of work.
Verdict: Bell was a top-15 back in fantasy scoring
last year with nearly 1,200 combined rushing and receiving yards
to go with eight scores. The obvious concern this season is the
injuries that have sidelined him. But he’s expected to be healthy
for the season and will be the team’s backfield starter. Clearly,
he’ll share some of the duties with Abdullah, but Bell should still
get somewhere in the vicinity of 250 touches, something that cannot
be said for some of the 32 running backs being taken ahead of him.
The Case For Anderson Being Overvalued: His career
success consists of half a season, and competition for carries remains.
The Case Against Anderson Being Overvalued: Gary
Kubiak’s scheme is a recipe for running back success.
Verdict: Anderson burst on the fantasy scene in
Week 10 last season, running for 90 yards against Oakland. He went
on to be a top-15 fantasy scorer at his position, with nearly 850
yards and eight scores while tacking on over 300 receiving yards
and two receiving scores. Still, it should be noted that six of
his touchdowns came in two games, and his most successful games
were against teams that were poor against the run. It would also
be unadvisable to completely discount Montee Ball or Ronnie Hillman
as competition for carries. Anderson may well be Denver’s top back
for the entire season, but there is substantial risk in taking him
with a top-10 overall pick.
The Case For Murray Being Overvalued: He has all
of 82 career carries, and his numbers were inflated due to one performance
against the Chiefs, and Oakland finished last in rushing attempts
last season.
The Case Against Murray Being Overvalued: He possesses
all the physical tools necessary to be successful and there isn’t
a lot of competition for him.
Verdict: Murray rose into prominence after rushing
four times for 112 yards and two scores last season in a Thursday
night game against the Chiefs. The next week he ran the ball 23
times (the first game of his career with more than four carries)
but managed only 76 yards. Murray then had double-digit carries
in the next three games and picked up 59, 86, and 37 yards. The
UCF product has a lot of potential – that much is obvious. But on
average he’s the 18th running back being picked, and that’s too
much faith to put in a player based on potential and one memorable
night.
The Case For Gurley Being Overvalued: Coming off
a torn ACL, he won’t be ready for Week 1, and Tre Mason was
better than people realize last season.
The Case Against Gurley Being Overvalued: He was
the 10th overall pick of the draft for a reason. His talent is phenomenal
and he should be a fantasy starter for years.
Verdict: There is a ton to like about Gurley, as
anyone who saw him play at Georgia will attest. And eventually,
he’ll probably wind up near the top of fantasy boards. But
his torn ACL will have him miss time at the beginning of the year,
and even if he does come back, it would be hard to believe he’ll
get a regular workload. Then there’s Mason, who had 765 yards
and four touchdowns last year, and if he starts well, Jeff Fisher
won’t just replace him. In the future, Gurley will have an
ADP that starts with the number one, but this year it shouldn’t
be starting with the number four.
