Christmas came a few days early for the 3% of DraftKings players
who were brave enough to make the contrarian play of Antonio Brown
against the Broncos. It was a bold move considering the hefty $8700
price tag and the difficult matchup against Aqib Talib and the Broncos
secondary, and Brown did not disappoint with 16 catches for 189
yards and two touchdowns.
On the surface it would appear as those 3% of folks were stupid
and lucky for starting Brown over less expensive players playing
against easier pass defenses like Jeremy Maclin vs. the Ravens
or Tyler Lockett/Doug Baldwin against the Browns. But closer consideration
reveals a smart move by these owners, especially in large GPP
games, and an excellent learning point for all DFS owners going
forward.
In nearly every season going back to 2000, there has been at
least one player who performs at a level, head shoulders above
his competition, regardless of the difficulty of the match up
or weather conditions. Like Priest Holmes in 2003, LaDainian Tomlinson
in 2006, and Randy Moss in 2007, Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger
and playing at a level that is unmatched by their peers, even
in a passing friendly NFL like today’s game.
It took them a few games to get into a groove and Ben’s
nagging injuries in the middle of the season derailed what could
have been a record-setting season. Even with Ben only managing
to play in ten games, the two players have put up ridiculous receiving
numbers, including an NFL record two 16-plus receiving games in
one year.
Going forward I hope to have learned two new things from what
we witnessed from Brown and Big Ben on Sunday. First, a wide receiver
and quarterback connecting on a ridiculous pace like those two
is worthy of a play regardless of the opponent. And second, I
want to try to take advantage of a situation like that in future
GPP games so I can have an edge on those 97% of people who missed
the opportunity to cash in on an excellent contrarian play.
To win a GPP tournament you need to make bold choices for your
roster. Kudos to those 3% who were better DFS players than I last
week.
The following is a lineup review of a head-to-head cash game
roster from DraftKings.
Wilson entered the week white hot, with three consecutive 30-plus
performances for a Seahawks team gelling on offense. With the
emergence of Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett, and the addition
by subtraction of Jimmy Graham leaving the offense due to a torn
patella, Wilson is playing the best football of his career and
looked like a sure bet to deliver another strong performance against
the Browns at home.
In this head-to-head matchup I wanted to focus on making sure
I did not miss out on critical points from my quarterback. My
first two choices were Cam Newton and Russell Wilson, with the
latter earning the start on my team based on the fact that I thought
his floor was higher. Newton would have been the best play here,
but I was a bit worried that the Giants would step up their game
defensively in hopes of ending the Panthers run for a perfect
season.
Newton’s 5 TD game would have been a nice boost to this roster,
but fortunately for me, I scored just enough points to win despite
other QB’s like Cousins, Bridgewater and Osweiler delivering better
performances. I was correct with my theory that Wilson would give
me a high floor, and 26.56 from my QB was just enough to get me
over the top.
My recent struggles at picking a solid pair of running backs
continued this week with the selection of AD and Robinson. Peterson
against the Bears in a must-win game for the Vikings to keep pace
in the NFC North appeared to have the makings of a big game.
I also chose Peterson because my opponent in my most important
season-long league played AD against me in the first round of
the playoffs. If Peterson was going to thrash me in my beloved
AFFL league, at least I could hedge my bet and win some money
off him in DFS.
An injury-shorted game with a mere 6.3 points was a huge disappointment,
but my hedged bet paid off in the long run as I won my playoff
matchup.
With an ownership level of nearly 30%, Robinson was a popular
inexpensive play for many owners this week on DraftKings and other
DFS sites. Robinson struggled against what was a terrible Atlanta
rush defense to the tune of 28 yards on 14 carries. Luckily he
did post eight catches for 46 yards to salvage the day.
Not my best day for picking running backs, and it only gets worse
with my poor choice for flex below.
Riding the Doug Baldwin train for another week seemed like the
no-brainer play at wide receiver, and 45.6% of players agreed
with me on that logic. Although Baldwin only caught 4 balls for
45 yards, he did hit pay dirt twice to give him an impressive
13 receiving touchdowns on the season.
Allen Robinson leads the league in plays over 20 yards and he
has been a consistent TD producer with three straight games of
scoring a touchdown. Consistency is key in a head-to-head game,
and Robinson has been one of the most consistent performers over
the past month.
Snead was my boom or bust play with the hope of Drew Brees continuing
to be a dominant player at home in primetime games. Snead turned
out to be the volume play I was hoping for with 10 catches of
76 yards. He didn’t score a TD, but the 17.6 points from
a $4600 third receiver was a great play.
I went against my own advice this week by starting a tight end
named other than Julius Thomas. Thomas was going to be my play,
but a gut feeling of Reed building off his 30-point game against
the Bears in week 14 seemed to be the better option.
With Reed there is always the risk of injury and the threat that
he may give you a goose egg, but you cannot deny the recent volume
of targets he is receiving from Cousins as the Skins fight for
a playoff berth. Reed ended up being the best tight end play of
the week and saved my team with 27.4 points.
I should force myself to wear a dunce hat for the rest of the
week for trusting Bill Belichick and the Patriots rushing attack.
At $3200 Bolden seemed like a great value play, as the Pats would
no-doubt blow out the Titans and cruise in the second half with
tons of carries for Bolden. Of course Bolden only received 12
touches for 50 total yards, as Joey Iosefa was used as the workhorse
back in the second half of the blowout.
I hate the Patriots and I hate Belichick.
Defense: Seattle Points 9
Grade: C
Seattle proved to be a smart head-to-head play because they provided
a comfortable floor with the possible upside of a defensive touchdown.
I felt pretty certain that I would not get a zero from the Seahawks
at home against Johnny Football, and they did not disappoint with
9 points on three sacks and one interception.
