The starting quarterback position for the Bills is an open competition
between a first round bust (EJ Manuel), a journeyman veteran whose
sole claim to fame is an eleven-win season with the Patriots (Matt
Cassel), and a former backup to Joe Flacco who has yet to make
a single NFL start in five seasons (Tyrod Taylor). When you add
in the fact that the Bills are now under the leadership of Rex
Ryan, a defensive minded coach who prides himself as a run-first,
ground and pound type of signal caller, you are left with a situation
that is less than advantageous for fantasy owners.
According to reports, none of the quarterbacks made much of an
impression during off-season workouts and depending on who you
listen too, Matt Cassel appears to be the leader in the competition
as mini-camps break this summer. However, the addition of former
San Francisco 49er offensive coordinator Greg Roman appears to
bode well for a more mobile quarterback like Manuel. Roman’s scheme
tends to favor a quarterback who can move out of the pocket, make
throws on the run, and run the read-option. Those are three things
that Manuel does better than Cassel.
Taylor is the dark horse in the race as he is the most mobile
of the three and could be the most effective player should the
Bills run what appears to be a highly conservative offense. Taylor
received an equal share of snaps with his counterparts and has
impressed Ryan and Roman with his athleticism. Bottom line, none
of the three players vying for the starting nod are worthy of
consideration in ten- and twelve-player, one-quarterback leagues.
In one of the more shocking off-season deals in recent memory,
perennial first-round fantasy running back LeSean McCoy was traded
by Chip Kelly and the Eagles to the Bills for linebacker Kiko
Alonso. The former Eagle joins a backfield in Buffalo that contains
veteran stalwart Fred Jackson, Anthony Dixon, Bryce Brown, and
fifth-round pick Karlos Williams from Florida State.
McCoy will be the primary tailback with Fred Jackson also receiving
a decent amount of carries. As a run-first team that will attempt
to shorten the game and control the clock with a menacing ground
attack, there should be more than enough carries for McCoy and
Jackson. At age 26, McCoy is still relatively young despite having
1461 carries on his legs. He enters 2015 as a disgruntled player
looking to prove his old team wrong by bouncing back from the
lowest touchdown total of his career (16 games, only 5 rushing
TDs).
In addition, the absence of C.J. Spiller via free agency to the
Saints opens the door for McCoy to regain the lost production
in third-down receptions that he experienced last season in Philadelphia.
Whoever ends up winning the starting role at quarterback for the
Bills will lean on McCoy in the passing game as a dump off receiver
and third-down threat. Fantasy owners that were burned by McCoy’s
drastic drop in production in 2014 will likely steer clear, opening
the door for owners drafting in the later spots in the first round
to get excellent value. Although the predicted poor quarterback
play may allow teams to load up the box against the run game,
sheer volume will allow McCoy to produce top ten fantasy production
this season.
RB Fred
Jackson (2014 RB Rank – No.25, 8.6 FPts/G)
At 34, Fred Jackson continues to defy logic when it comes to
age and performance for NFL running backs. Every year the same
narrative is shared by numerous writers that Jackson is too old
and is finished, and every year it seems the veteran tailback
proves those pundits wrong with a solid performance. Although
he managed just 3.7 yards per carry and two paltry rushing touchdowns
in 2014, he did post 66 receptions and 501 receiving yards out
of the backfield.
Jackson will likely share time with McCoy, with McCoy acting
as the bellcow and primary ball carrier. It is also possible that
McCoy will eat into Jackson’s reception total, as McCoy
is an accomplished receiver out of the backfield and has more
elusiveness in the open field. Fantasy owners should view Jackson
as a handcuff to McCoy and not a viable flex play in standard
formats.
Sammy Watkins came just 18 yards shy of joining Mike Evans, Odell
Beckham Jr., and Kevlin Benjamin as four rookie wide receivers
to break the century mark in receiving yards last season. The
former first-round pick from Clemson added six receiving touchdowns
and 65 receptions in what ended up being a solid rookie campaign,
despite the fact that he posted eight games with three or less
catches.
The new Rex Ryan regime does not bode well for fantasy owners
of Watkins (hip)looking for an increase in volume, as Ryan will
likely continue to be a run-first coach with the Bills. Another
65-reception season could be in store for Watkins, however, the
question is can he become more of a threat in the red zone and
top the ten-touchdown plateau in his sophomore season. The addition
of Percy Harvin may also reduce the number of targets for Watkins,
while conversely opening the door for more single coverage deep
and the opportunity for more big plays. Watkins should be viewed
as a low-end WR2 who would be a solid number two if he can increase
his red zone touches.
There are few wide receivers in the league that can boast similar
physical tools as Percy Harvin. Unfortunately for Percy, there
are an equal number of wide receiver divas that seem to agitate
their team and burn bridges quite like the former first round
pick from Florida. All the talent in the world does not mean a
player will be successful in the NFL if that player doesn’t
stay focused and improve on his craft. For this reason, Harvin
has never top more that six touchdowns in a season and only six
total touchdowns over the past three injury-riddled seasons. Harvin
should open up the field for other players like McCoy and Woods
in Greg Roman’s offensive scheme, however, fantasy owners
banking on him to be a consistent producer will likely be disappointed.
WR Robert
Woods (2014 WR Rank – No.48, 6.2 FPts/G)
Although he is not flashy and at times appears to be an afterthought
for fantasy owners, Woods quietly amassed 700 yards and five touchdowns
last season on an impressive 104 targets. A player who receives
over 100 targets in a season is someone who should garner attention
from fantasy owners, regardless of what team that player plays
on. Targets equal opportunity and opportunity is what owners look
for in the later rounds of drafts. Unfortunately, the change in
coaching staff and the addition of Percy Harvin will likely mean
fewer targets for Woods in 2015, reducing his value to only a
spot start in even deep leagues.
TE Charles
Clay (2014 TE Rank – No.16, 5.6 FPts/G)
Charles Clay was a trendy breakout player in 2014 as a member
of the Miami Dolphins. The thought at the time was that the Dolphins’
offense was primed to take a big step forward with quarterback
Ryan Tannehill maturing into a viable NFL starter. Clay disappointed
owners with only three receiving touchdowns and 605 receiving
yards on 58 receptions. Now the former converted running back
joins a Bills team that provides a definite downgrade in quarterback
and a coach who prefers to run the ball early and often. Look
for Clay to have a few ten-plus fantasy point performances this
season, but the lack of volume and the less-than stellar quarterback
situation makes him a risky play this season.
