As one would expect, Tom Brady’s fantasy value hinges greatly
on the pending outcome of his lawsuit against the National Football
League and commissioner Roger Goddel’s handling of the deflate
gate saga. As of the date of publication, Brady’s four-game
suspension has yet to be reduced and second-year QB Jimmy Garappolo
is slated to start the first four games of the season. Assuming
no change will come from the litigation in the case, Brady is
slated to start his season for fantasy owners on October 6 against
the Colts on Sunday Night Football. 12 games of Brady and four
games replacement play from a backup like Sam Bradford or Carson
Palmer could make Brady a nice late pickup in fantasy drafts,
especially if you subscribe to the narrative that the Patriots
will seek revenge for their perceived poor treatment from the
league office by taking it out on other teams on the field with
a scorched-earth mentality. Add in the fact that the New England
defense appears to have taken a step back from last year’s
Super Bowl winning team and could possibly force Brady and the
offense to keep pace in high scoring games, and you have the makings
for a possible steal for owners who fail to secure a QB until
the later stages of the draft.
Trusting a New England running back to deliver consistent fantasy
production has been one of the more difficult tasks over the past
few seasons, as head coach Bill Belichick has been notoriously
difficult for fantasy owners to read and his propensity to bench
tailbacks for fumbling or other errors has made owning a Patriot
tailback an exercise in patience. Owners who draft LeGarrette
Blount not only have Belichick’s history to consider, but
they also will need to deal with Blount missing the first game
of the season due to a suspension stemming from an unfortunate
pot-related incident when he was a member of the Steelers. Despite
these negative factors devaluing Blount, the former Oregon Duck
has proven to be a solid fantasy play while with New England.
As a member of the Patriots, Blount has posted ten rushing touchdowns
and 1053 rushing yards in 21 games. Perhaps most impressive, is
the fact that he has averaged nearly five yards per carry during
that span. He’s got RB2 upside but fantasy owners need to
be aware of the risk involved.
Gray burst onto the scene in 2014 with a 37-carry, 201-yard and
4-touchdown performance Week 11 against the Colts. He then proceeded
to disappear the rest of the season after spending some time in
Bill Belichick’s doghouse, failing to score more than 6.9
points in his remaining four games, as LeGarrette Blount secured
the leading tailback role for the Patriots. With Blount out for
the first week of the season due to a substance abuse related
suspension and Tom Brady dealing with his four-game Deflate Gate
suspension, Gray will likely be the lead back as the Patriots
take on the Steelers to kick of the regular season. Gray will
have some significant value in DFS and could be a spot play Week
1, but other than that he has very little fantasy value in 2015
unless Blount misses time.
RB James
White (2014 RB Rank - No. 116, 2.0 Fpts/G)
Owners in PPR leagues should consider adding second-year running
back James White to their late-round list of targets. White, a
former fourth round pick from the University of Wisconsin, is
the leading candidate to take over the passing down role abdicated
by the departed Shane Vereen. White is young and other players
like Travaris Cadet, Dion Lewis and Brandon Bolden could end up
taking the former role of Vereen, but for PPR owners looking for
a possible draft and stash play, White could be an excellent option.
Edelman has been a target monster over the past two seasons,
logging 285 targets in 30 games dating back to the start of the
2013 season. Of those 205 targets, the former seventh round pick
from Kent State converted 197 of them for catches and 2028 yards.
Unfortunately, only ten of those 197 catches went for touchdowns,
and only four of them occurred with Rob Gronkowski on the field.
Edelman is a nice compliment to any team, especially those playing
in PPR and half-point PPR formats. But in a standard league weighed
heavily on touchdowns, Edelman takes a hit for his lack of TD
scoring in the offense. Complicating the situation is Edelman
has been noticeably absent from team drills since early August,
relegated to individual work for an undisclosed injury. The general
consensus is Edelman will be available for Week 1 but the Patriots
remain silent on his timetable for return.
It might surprise some fantasy owners to know that Brandon LaFell
finished higher in fantasy points per game in 2014 than potential
studs like Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews and Sammy Watkins. In
fact, his 9.2 fantasy points per game were just behind fellow
wide receiver and number one wide receiving option Julian Edelman.
LaFell has been dealing with an undisclosed injury throughout
training camp which is why is ADP continues to hover in the mid-ninth
round in standard scoring 12-team leagues. He is not a flashy
player and owners who take LaFell in the late round of drafts
will likely not receive much in the form of compliments from their
fellow owners, but adding a guy who can provide 70 catches and
seven TDs as a WR three is a solid move.
Only one player can boast a two-point per game average gap over
the second rated player at their position while commanding a tier
of their own in fantasy rankings. At just 26 years of age, Rob
Gronkowski has been the most dominant and consistent tight end
since joining the league in 2010. He has posted 54 touchdowns
in 65 NFL games and two 1100-plus yard seasons, including a whopping
1327 yards and 17 TD campaign in 2011. His value does take somewhat
of a hit if Brady is suspended for the full four games, however,
Gronk’s size and ability to find the end zone will likely
make him a favorite target for Jimmy Garappolo. Fantasy owners
looking for a clear advantage over the competition at the tight
end position can do no wrong with Gronkowski. The question is
can he deliver on the first round price tag that accompanies a
player of his caliber.