The daunting aspect of building
a lineup for large GPP contests like the $3.11M Fantasy Football
Millionaire contest on DraftKings is knowing that you will need
to hit nearly the perfect lineup for all nine positions to be
in the running for the top prize. Missing on just one of your
selections can be the difference between a hefty payday and finishing
out of the money.
For this reason, I typically avoid massive GPP games and focus
my attention on head-to-head cash games and multipliers. But for
this season I decided to enter one ticket in the Millionaire contest
each week to see if I can break even or come out ahead. Through
11 weeks of the season I am up $200, but overall, my experience
playing in this type of contest has been a bust.
The following losing ticket is a prime example of why playing
in GPP’s can be frustrating, as I went for a home run play
at quarterback with Jay
Cutler, one to be left out in the cold with what could have
been a lineup in other formats.
More often than not a winning ticket in GPP contests have an
inexpensive quarterback with a low ownership percentage that blows
up with a big game. Spending only $5,400 on Cutler afforded me
the ability to spend more money on other expensive plays like
Mike Evans and Melvin Gordon, my two high-priced skill position
players in this lineup.
Cutler at home against the Tampa Bay Bucs had the making of a
shootout, with Cutler throwing for four touchdowns and 300 yards.
The game also had a high probability of Smokin’ Jay throwing
pick after pick for a single digit point return on my investment.
With three interceptions and 83 yards in the first half and an
alleged concussion that mercifully held him out for the second
period, Cutler burned me and killed any chance of at least getting
my money back.
In hindsight, going with a more expensive quarterback with a
high floor paired with a mid-level wide receiver instead of Evans
would have been a better play. But in GPP you go high risk/high
reward, and in the case of Cutler, I received high risk and no
reward.
Gordon at home against a Bills defense that has allowed the most
fantasy points to RBs over the past month seemed like a logical
expensive play to pair with Rex Burkhead against the Raiders.
I anticipated that Gordon would give me the floor of around 100
yards and a touchdown with the ceiling of a possible monster day,
while Burkhead was an inexpensive wild card with an unknown amount
of usage by Bill Belichick and the Pats.
Game script somewhat killed Gordon’s ceiling as Nate Peterman
dropped an Urban Sombrero of five interceptions in the first half
against the Chargers D/ST (forgive me, I am a die-hard Seinfeld
fan).
Predicting usage for Patriots running backs can be an exercise
in futility, with Belichick continually mixing up how he doles
out carries in his backfield. With 15 points in each of his last
two games and an attractive $3,600 salary, Burkhead vs. the Raiders
seemed like a nice home run play. 24% of DK players shared that
same logic, and nearly a quarter of all tickets ended up swinging
and missing as Burkhead scored just 7.7 points.
60 combined points is the target floor for my wide receivers
in GPPs, with the goal of scoring around 75 for any hope of making
a serious return on my $20 entry fee. Cooks was the no-brainer
play of the week with Hogan out and Amendola likely limited.
I thought about pairing DeVante Parker as my stack with Cutler,
but I decided last minute to go with the volume play in Landry
instead. That move ended up being a smart move, as Landry now
has a touchdown in three connective games.
Mike Evans dropped a touchdown pass that could have given him
20-plus points on the day and moved my WR corps into the 70-plus
point total threshold. I’m not sure I will invest in Evans again
this season, as he just doesn’t seem to be clicking with Ryan
Fitzpatrick.
Tight End: Tyler
Kroft Fantasy Points: 9.2
Grade: B
The decision here was between Marcedes Lewis and Kroft, two touchdown
dependent tight ends playing against two teams that seem to always
give up receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends. Both players
scored, but neither had a big game.
Thompson was the no-brainer flex play of the week with the Redskins
down Rob Kelley, Jordan Reed, and Terrelle Pryor vs. the Saints.
Thompson looked primed for a monster game with 10.3 points in
the first half, but a nasty leg injury knocked him out for the
rest of the season and killed any chance of a big performance.
A tough break for one of the most talented receiving running backs
in the game.
D/ST: Jacksonville Fantasy Points: 25
Grade: A+
Week 11 was a week for monster D/ST performances with the Jags,
Ravens, and Chargers scoring 25 points. I was pleased to see the
Jags come through in what looked like a must-start game. Nearly
25% of all DK players agreed that paying up for the Jags made
sense, while a small percentage of Chargers owners banked with
similar production from a $3,000 priced DST.
I anticipate staying in the fire with the Jags week 12 as they
take on the Blaine Gabbert-led Cardinals this Sunday.
