With studs at all three skill positions
shouldn’t' the fantasy community be higher on Eli?
QB Eli
Manning (2017 QB Rank - No.29, 17.2 FPts/G)
To say the 2017 New York Football Giants were a dumpster fire
would be a gross understatement, as the G-men finished 31st in
total offense and 28th overall in total defense. The team was
a train wreck from the onset of the season, with Odell Beckham
Jr. suffering a season-ending leg injury, and a Paul Perkins-led
ground game failing to produce any semblance of a running game
behind the 26th-ranked offensive line (according to Pro Football
Focus).
A 3-13 record culminated with the bizarre benching and subsequent
reinstatement of franchise quarterback Eli Manning in Week 13,
and the eventual dismissal of head coach Ben McAdoo. Lost in all
the off-field drama was the fact that Manning, despite losing
arguably the best wide receiver in the league and garnering no
help from a piss-poor rushing attack, finished with a completion
percentage of 62%, while throwing the second-fewest interceptions
of his 14-year career.
Although the quarterback position in 2018 is by far the deepest
it has ever been, with at least 14 serviceable fantasy quarterbacks
available in the draft, Manning will likely go undrafted in most
redraft leagues this summer. Recency bias is something that affects
many owners and the ability to look past last year’s debacle
is not an easy task. However, with the addition of left tackle
Nate Solder and guard Will Hernandez, the Giants made great strides
improving the offensive line for both pass protection and run
blocking.
In addition, the addition of superstar prospect Saquon Barkley
and the return of a healthy Beckham will give Manning more than
enough weapons to dissect opposing defenses and improve on last
year’s finish as the No. 31 scoring offense. Manning is the only
quarterback in the NFL who boasts a top-5 fantasy WR, top-12 RB,
and top-5 TE. If fantasy owners believe that Beckham Jr, Barkley,
and Evan Engram will live up to their ADP, then Manning is grossly
undervalued and could be a top-12 QB that will go undrafted in
most formats.
The success of rookie running backs Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara,
Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt, and Leonard Fournette over the past
two seasons has challenged the old narrative that first-year players
cannot be stud running backs right out of the chute. Kamara, Hunt,
Fournette, and Cook all finished as RB1’s last season regarding
points per game, while Elliott followed up his impressive rookie
campaign in 2016 with a second-place finish last year.
After setting the college football world on fire last season
and turning heads at the combine, Saquon Barkley became the first
running back since Reggie Bush to be taken second overall in the
draft. Barkley joins an excellent situation in New York on a team
with an improved offensive line and a passing game that will not
allow opposing defenses to sell out on the run.
With volume and opportunity being king in fantasy football, Barkley
will be heavily used in both the rushing and ground game, making
him a first-round pick in all formats with the upside as a top-5
RB in 2018.
Beckham Jr. suffered a pedal ankle fracture in Week 5 against
the Los Angeles Chargers, forcing the former 2014 first-round
pick from LSU to miss the remainder of the 2017 season. Before
suffering the injury, Beckham Jr. was on pace to deliver nearly
identical numbers from his 2016 campaign in which he finished
with 101 catches for 1367 yards and ten touchdowns as the No.
5 ranked wide receiver.
At just 25 years of age, there is little evidence to suggest
that Beckham Jr. will not fully recover from his injury and regain
his record-setting form from the first three seasons of his career.
The addition of second-overall pick Saquon Barkley should give
an otherwise anemic rushing attack a much-needed boost that could
equate to more success in the passing game. Also, the Giants made
great strides in improving their offensive line with the addition
of free agent left tackle Nate Solder from New England, and the
selection of guard Will Hernadez with the 34th pick in the 2018
NFL draft.
Doubts surrounding Beckham Jr.’s ability to recover from
injury fully and contract dispute will likely push the star receiver
to the back end of the first round in most redraft leagues. Although
those concerns have some validity, the improvements to the Giants
offense and the fact that Beckham Jr. has never finished outside
the top-5 in WR make him arguably the best value in the first
round.
Injuries played a massive role in a sophomore slump for wide
receiver Sterling Shepard, as multiple ankle sprains, a hamstring
pull, and migraines held the former second-round pick from Oklahoma
to just 11 games in 2017. In those 11 games, Sheppard was a boom
or bust fantasy option, with three games of at least 14 fantasy
points sandwiched between seven games of six or fewer.
The season-ending injury to Odell Beckham Jr. did not equate
to a monster season for Shepard, as teams focused their defensive
strategy on stopping the second-year player and the Eric Flowers-led
Giants offensive line was downright atrocious.
With ODB back and healthy and the Giants front office addressing
their offensive woes in both free agency and the draft, the New
York offense looks primed to make great strides in 2018. The question
is will Shepard, arguably the No.4 receiving option behind Beckham,
Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley, get enough volume to make him
a viable No.3 wide receiver in fantasy football?
There is little doubt that Beckham will be among the leaders
in targets at the wide receiver position, and Engram trailed only
Travis Kelce in targets among tight ends. In addition, Barkley
is an accomplished pass-catching running back who will be featured
in the passing game under new head coach Pat Shurmur. For Shepard
to have significant fantasy value in 2018, he will need to be
a viable touchdown scoring threat like he was when he caught eight
TDs as a rookie in 2016.
The Giants used the No. 23 pick in the 2017 NFL draft to take
Evan Ingram, a pass-catching tight end out of Mississippi who
projected to be more of a big-bodied wide receiver than a traditional
tight end. Injuries to Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard
opened the door for Engram to make his mark quickly with the Giants,
as the former Rebel led the team in catches, targets, and receiving
touchdowns.
As one would expect from a young player playing in his first
season, not all was rosy for Ingram, who managed to catch just
56% of the balls thrown his way. Engram dropped a team-high six
balls last season, as he failed at times to be on the same page
with Eli Manning.
Despite his shortcomings, Engram finished the year as the No.4
tight end in fantasy points per game, behind Rob Gronkowski, Travis
Kelce, and Zach Ertz. With tight end projecting to be one of the
more shallow positions in fantasy for 2018, Engram enters the
year as a consensus top-5 pick even though both Beckham Jr. and
Shepard are once again healthy and will consume a large percentage
of Eli Manning’s targets.
Concerning pecking order, it is safe to assume that ODB will
command the lion’s share of targets in the passing option,
and rookie running back sensation Saquon Barkley will garner his
fair share of targets out of the backfield. With targets a being
a finite commodity, it would not be surprising to see Engram not
reach the 115 targets he enjoyed in 2017. However, if he can improve
on his low catch percentage, reduce the number of drops, and catch
between six and ten touchdowns, look for Engram to once again
finish as a top 5 tight end.