The Gut Check decided to see if week two is really time for owners to hit the panic button. The results depending on position range from "act quick," to "take a chill pill." What did Yours Truly discover?

First, let's look at how The Gut Check derived this information. Once again, Doug Drinen's stats at www.pro-football-reference.com are the basis of the queries listed below.

1. The average fantasy points by position for the 2001, 2002, and 2003 seasons.
   
   
2. The average fantasy points by position for the first two games of the 2001, 2002, 2003 seasons.
   
   
3. The differential between the first two games and the entire season by position for 2001, 2002, and 2003.
   
   
4. Identifying players with significant negative point differentials between their first two games and the entire season.

The Gut Check decided on a differential of -5 points as the baseline. In other words, Yours Truly is looking for players that averaged at least five points less over the course of their first two games of the season than over the course of the entire season. This should tell us whether we should be patient or hit the panic button.

Based on this information, The Gut Check recommends you seriously consider finding a new starter if your quarterback falls below the average fantasy point baseline for a #1 QB after the first two games of the season. Of course there are noticeable exceptions—proven top-tier starters of Manning or McNair's caliber—where a fantasy owner should ride out the storm because of their past performance and the current weapons around them.

What about running backs? Are the results similar?

For the same three-year period, twenty-two backs finished in the top twenty-four after a bad start. Nearly 31% of starting quality running backs in two-RB lineups for a 12-team league (22 out of 72), put up better numbers after week two. This is definitely better odds, but not comforting by any means. When The Gut Check factored out the backs that weren't the opening day starter from the original twenty-two, the numbers are even less encouraging: only 12 out of the 72 backs (16.67%) turned around a bad start.

Once again the elite backs (Tomlinson and Faulk) appear to be the exception to this data. The Gut Check recommends you better be certain the back in question is truly the best of the best. If anything, this data suggests that running backs tend to come out of the woodwork as the season progresses—either as rookies that show they've made the adjustment to the NFL or injury replacements. This supports the idea of stockpiling running back depth in the draft, through trades, or the waiver wire.

Ready to panic? Fortunately, not all is lost when it comes to slow starts for wide receivers:

In a twelve-team league with three starting receivers, the data paints a promising picture. Over the course of the past three years 16 out of 18 receivers—a very comforting 88.8%—with a sub-par start finished the season as a quality starter. Clearly the data shows that an owner shouldn't panic when it comes to slow starts for higher-rated wide receivers. In fact, the average point differential for wide receivers in this table is the smallest among the three major fantasy positions in a starting lineup.

So how do we apply this information heading into week three? Let's look at some players that didn't start off 2004 on the right foot. Let's refer back to the baseline average fantasy points for each position in standard scoring, 12-team league with 1 QB, 2 RB, and 3 WR in a starting lineup.

The Gut Check isn't going to address the receiver position due to the higher probability that a receiver off to a slow start can turn his season around. At this point it's too difficult to separate the better receivers with bad games from the rest of the pack.

Let's look at some of the quarterbacks falling below the #2 QB baseline for average fantasy points.

Kurt Warner and Drew Bledsoe? Although both have demonstrated considerable talent, they seem to be lame duck starters at this point in their careers. Some owners counted on Bledsoe to experience a revival in his play. To Mike Mularky's credit, Kordell Stewart started slow and finished the season among the top twelve quarterbacks in average fantasy points per game in 2001. The same could happen for Bledsoe, but the Gut Check would be looking for another viable option—considering the data above—just in case lightning doesn't strike twice.

Then there is Grossman, Leftwich, and Simms. Grossman and Simms are going to have their ups and downs as quarterbacks embarking upon their first year as the starter. Leftwich has had a slow start and appears to be pressing. On the other hand, the Bills and Broncos have the sixth and third-rated defenses against the pass. Is this rating due to both teams facing Leftwich, or are both defenses that good? Yours Truly believes it's a combination of both factors: the defenses were good and Leftwich and his young receiving corps were out of sync. Although The Gut Check isn't quite ready to admit his 2004 predictions for Leftwich were wrong, the second-year quarterback isn't doing much to justify them right now. Yours Truly is willing to take his lumps if Leftwich hasn't turned it up a couple of notches against 22nd and 24th ranked passing defenses of the Titans and Chargers in consecutive weeks. Even with if the Jag's QB has two dynamite games, The Gut Check won't be able to avoid the light much longer…

But probably the two most disappointing starts have to be Trent Green and Brad Johnson. The Chiefs receiving corps has been decimated with injuries. The Gut Check was saying "uh-oh," when the Broncos managed to shut Kansas City down just by putting Champ Bailey on Tony Gonzalez. This is truly a situation where owners should be looking for another starter. Green did have a nice turnaround last year, but he's averaging nearly five points less than he did during 2003's bad start!

Johnson appeared to be in a situation where the Bucs' offense was getting upgraded in the off-season. Now many people are calling the season over after two games. With Chris Simms getting time in week two, you may want to look for another backup. Hopefully that's all Johnson was to your fantasy team.

Running backs off to a slow start in 2004 seem to match the last three years of data. First we have to eliminate the injured backs on this table from scrutiny: McAllister is the only one that qualifies.

Note the parallels between the Jaguars and Bills—both have an establish receiver in Jimmy Smith and Eric Moulds, a promising young player that has disappointed thus far in Reggie Williams and Josh Reed, a rookie on the rise in Ernest Wilford and Lee Evans, and no established, receiving tight end—as both teams' offenses gain more balance, Yours Truly believes these players should have some very good games during the second half of the season.

What about Duce Staley and Charlie Garner? These were two popular sleepers due to their change in venue and past production. If Jerome Bettis weren't the goal line back, Staley would be a top ten fantasy RB thus far (presuming Duce would have scored three times against the Raiders). Unfortunately, Duce's future prospects are even further muddled with Roethlisberger in the lineup. The Gut Check can't say Garner's prospects looked as promising after week one. Week two didn't do much to remedy the situation, either. Lump Garner in with Gordon, William Green, and Wheatley as guys to stay away from for the rest of the season.

Then there is Kevin Jones and Reshard Lee, two guys that could come out of the woodwork if they find an opportunity to take the feature spot in the next few weeks: Jones has the best chance of the two. Lee is considered a talented runner but he has too much trouble with pass protection for Parcells to feel good enough to rely upon him as an every down option.

The Gut Check also recommends Chester Taylor as a plug-in if you anticipated being short-handed for the weeks of the Jamal Lewis trial. In fantasy circles, The Gut Check would probably call him a poor man's Maurice Morris—a complete back that exhibits more speed when the pads are on than he does at a combine test. And Edgerrin James wasn't the only Indianapolis back that appeared to have returned to form—Dominic Rhodes displayed the pre-injury burst and moves in the Colts' opener that made him a waiver wire gem a few years ago.

And remember, the best two options that have yet to play a down at running back are waiting for their opportunity: Lee Suggs and Michael Bennett. Both should be ready to go soon, and have an excellent chance to make a big impact. Cleveland and Minnesota have been in the game and the addition of these two explosive runners could change the fantasy landscape for many leagues.

The Gut Check on early season panic attacks? For quarterbacks and runners, act quickly unless the guy has proven to be an elite player. Receivers are a different story. Take a Valium and wait a couple more weeks to see how things shake out. Nothing is guaranteed in fantasy football, but it never hurts to have the odds in your favor. Hopefully this information at least keeps the odds from being stacked against you.