Last week I advised that you
should check out a cash game contest that involves the Thursday
game even if you do not use the players from the game. Did you do
it? In one my DraftKings 50/50’s, a fellow contestant had
eight of his nine players going in the Thursday night game. Even
though this person did well with Jarvis Landry and Chris Hogan,
it was not enough to offset the performances of Scott Chandler and
Robert Woods. This roster had a final score at the end of the week
of 80.5 points - just 0.005 percent of the contestants had a worse
score. Now this is an extreme example, but I saw quite a few other
lineups loaded up with Thursday players. This week has a chance
to be similar with a lower point total in a division matchup. Now
Jamaal Charles will be highly owned and I cannot argue that he is
worth a roster spot. He has averaged 120 yards over his last five
games and has seven touchdowns over that stretch. However, you can
be sure that there will be plenty of lineups that have many other
suboptimal players from Thursday night’s game negating any
advantage Charles provides. I think I have hammered home that point
so we will move forward.
This is the last week for bye weeks. It is also one of the last
couple of weeks for the regular season in most season-long fantasy
football leagues. The daily fantasy sites are continuing to grow
at a rapid pace and they will be welcoming plenty of more new
players as their playoff hopes are crushed. If you have been playing
for a while, I hope you are enjoying the game and thank you for
continuing to visit this column. If you new to the game, please
check out some of the past articles as
I try to include more information rather than just delivering
some value picks. When you have a question on a concept or would
like to offer a comment, feel free to reach
out to me. I would be happy to hear from you.
As we do every week, let’s see what the odds makers think
of the team scores this week.
Las Vegas scoring lines for Week 12:
- Kansas City (25) at Oakland (17.5)
- Cleveland (21.75) at Atlanta (25.25)
- Tennessee (18.75) at Philadelphia (29.75)
- Detroit (20.5) at New England (27.5)
- Green Bay (29.25) at Minnesota (19.25)
- Jacksonville (18.25) at Indianapolis (32.25)
- Cincinnati (21) at Houston (22.5)
- NY Jets (18) at Buffalo (22)
- Tampa Bay (20.25) at Chicago (25.75)
- Arizona (18) at Seattle (24.5)
- St. Louis (19.75) at San Diego (24.25)
- Miami (20.75) at Denver (28.25)
- Washington (17.5) at San Francisco (26.5)
- Dallas (25) at NY Giants (22)
- Baltimore (23.5) at New Orleans (26.5)
Bye: Carolina, Pittsburgh
Salaries: (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Quarterbacks Drew Brees
(9,000/8,200) Brees has looked less than spectacular at
times and has not thrown for 300 yards since Week 8 against Green
Bay. Like the Packers game, this week Brees is at home in primetime,
which plays well into his stat splits. The Saints are still in
the playoff hunt and have one of the higher team totals for the
week.
Matt Ryan (7,600/6,300) I do not expect Ryan to be a
popular pick this week, making him a good contrarian play. He
has not topped 300 yards since Week 5 and has only thrown for
multiple touchdowns once since Week 4. Ryan has thrown seven of
his 17 touchdowns in the three games inside the Georgia Dome.
Cleveland has performed well against opposing quarterbacks, but
for the price I will give Ryan a shot at home.
Kaepernick makes for a good tournament
play in DFS.
Colin Kaepernick (7,300/6,500) It is tough to trust Kaepernick
and his body of work this year as he has only thrown for 300 yards
once, multiple touchdowns three times and he is averaging just
over thirty yards per game rushing on the season. I would not
trust Kaepernick in my cash game lineup, but I would give him
a shot in tournaments against the struggling Washington defense
that is giving up top-three production to opposing quarterbacks.
Josh McCown (7,500/6,600) Since reclaiming the starting
spot a couple of games ago, McCown has thrown for nearly 600 yards
and four touchdowns. This week he goes back to Chicago in a revenge
game to face the worst pass defense in the league.
Running Backs
LeSean McCoy (7,700/6,200) McCoy has shown up in
this article a couple of times in recent weeks. While he is not
performing like the top three pick that he was in redraft leagues,
a combination of his daily price tag and is volume of touches
makes him a good value candidate. This week he faces a Titans
defense that was torched by LeVeon Bell on Monday night
to the tune of 200-plus yards and a touchdown. Look for McCoy
to get another twenty plus touches and maybe he can find the end
zone for just the third time this season.
Rashad Jennings (6,600/5,100) In his first game back
from injury, Jennings saw 18 carries and four catches. Although
his yardage was not where investors would have hoped, the touches
alone make him a good value at this salary. This week in a primetime
matchup he faces a Dallas defense that is giving up 4.8 yards
per carry.
Trent
Richardson (5,700/4,900) Richardson should be the main workload
beneficiary of Ahmad Bradshaws (ankle) season ending injury.
He has not performed very well this year but he has a nice match
up at home against Jacksonville this week.
Tre Mason (5,600/4,200) Last week the rookie topped 100
yards for the first time in his career and did so on thirty touches.
While I do not expect another thirty touch week, Mason has solidified
himself as the feature back in St. Louis. This week he faces the
San Diego defense who has given up an average of 100 yards and
a touchdown over the last four games.
Wide Recievers
As an extra note about pass catchers this week, I am not
a huge fan of a lot of the deeper value plays on FanDuel. The
salaries are not that wide from top to bottom so I will be loading
up on the big names and finding my values elsewhere.
Odell
Beckham Jr. (7,500/6,100) Since the bye, Beckham is averaging
seven catches on eleven targets for 119 yards. He has emerged
as a top target of Eli Manning.
Percy Harvin (6,400/4,700) Coming off his third bye week
of the season, Harvin should be well rested and even better acquainted
with the Jets offense. That is not a great offense and there is
a low projected score in this game so his upside is limited. Harvin
is averaging nine targets in the passing game and has been involved
in the running game as well, giving him a decent value.
Marques
Colston (6,000/4,200) With Brandin Cooks (thumb) done for
the season, Colston figures to see a few more targets in the coming
weeks. Baltimore is giving up top-five production to opposing
wide receivers.
Allen Hurns (5,900/3,200) Hurns (concussion) is no longer
on the injury report making him a nice value at DraftKings where
his price is just $200 over the minimum. He will be in the starting
lineup and should see decent volume in a game that Jacksonville
figures to throw early and often to stay in the game.
Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham (7,500/7,000) Graham is going to be
a staple in my cash game lineups this week. He is a favorite target
of Brees and figures to see a few more looks with the loss of
Brandin Cooks. At the position, Graham is as sure as they come
for some safe points.
Jason
Witten (5,700/4,400) Witten has seen an uptick in targets
over his last three games and has scored in two of his last three.
The Giants have given up four touchdowns in their last four games
including two to Gavin Escobar last time these two teams met.
Larry Donnell (5,500/3,900) Here is a start your tight
end against the Dallas Cowboys play. In their first meeting this
year Donnell caught seven passes for 90 yards. If you are looking
for a cheap play at the position, Donnell is a viable option.
Defenses
Philadelphia (5,100/3,400)
Buffalo (5,200/3,300)
Indianapolis (5,600/3,200)
Good luck this week!
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