Some weeks in the daily fantasy space, it seems like prices are
a little tighter to rankings and predictions. In my opinion, this
is one of those weeks. There is still some value out there but some
of the plays are not as obvious as other weeks. As we approach Sunday,
a few more value possibilities may present themselves as the injury
reports become clearer. This is the case every week, but it seems
even more apparent this week as more of the regular starters are
not practicing and showing up as questionable on the injury report.
Some of the key questions at the running back position are: like
Andre Ellington (ARI), Isaiah Crowell (CLE) and Rashad Jennings
(NYG). Keep an eye on these situations as there is potential to
get starter touches and targets at backup prices. At the time of
writing, if I was going to play just one lineup this week, I would
be paying up for my quarterback and running back as I see stronger
value plays at the wide receiver and tight end positions.
As I
mentioned earlier in the week, the injury reports are providing
some more value priced options for this weekend. Of course some
teams are staying close to the vest on their game time decision
players, so check the Sunday inactives before finalizing your rosters.
Below are a few added comments or ideas for this week.
Andre Ellington has been ruled out for this weekend. Stephan
Taylor (5,500/3,300) will get the start but will likely split
the work with Marion Grice (5,000/4,100). Against Kansas City,
neither of these two are great options, especially in a cash game
format.
Isaiah Crowell (6,500/5,000) is looking like he will play
through the questionable status. With a hip injury, I would not
feel comfortable playing Crowell at his price, but I would consider
Terrance West (5,300/3,800) if Crowell is inactive.
Rashad
Jennings made the value report earlier this week but his limited
practices scaring me away in cash games. He traveled with the
team to Tennessee and is listed as a game time decision.
Las Vegas scoring lines for Week 14:
- Dallas (27.25) at Chicago (23.75)
- Baltimore (21.25) at Miami (23.75)
- Pittsburgh (22) at Cincinnati (25)
- Indianapolis (26.75) at Cleveland (23.25)
- Houston (23.5) at Jacksonville (18.5)
- NY Giants (22.75) at Tennessee (22.75)
- Carolina (19.5) at New Orleans (30)
- Tampa Bay (15.75) at Detroit (25.75)
- St. Louis (23.5) at Washington (21)
- NY Jets (17.25) at Minnesota (23.5)
- Buffalo (18.75) at Denver (28.75)
- Kansas City (19.75) at Arizona (20.75)
- San Francisco (24.25) at Oakland (16.25)
- Seattle (23.75) at Philadelphia (24.75)
- New England (27) at San Diego (23.5)
- Atlanta (21.5) at Green Bay (34.5)
Bye: N/A
Salaries: (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Quarterbacks Drew Brees
(9,400/9,100) – Brees returns home after his five-touchdown
effort on the road. It is hard to imagine him topping last week’s
performance but he is at home where his splits are better and
he faces a Carolina defense that gives up top 10 production to
opposing QB’s. The Saints have the second highest projected
scoring total for the week.
Matt Ryan (7,900/7,000) – Ryan is not a play I would feel
comfortable with in a cash game but he does have some value in
a tournament format. The Packers have shut down opposing QB’s
in Lambeau and Ryan has some weak road splits. He should benefit
from a lot of volume as the Falcons figure to have to throw early
and often to stay in the game on Monday Night.
Jay Cutler (8,300/7,200) – Cutler has been anything but
consistent this year so beware of using him in a cash game. He
does offer value in a tournament against a Cowboys defense that
is top 10 against opposing QB’s over the last five weeks.
This game is the second highest total if you are including the
Thursday night matchup.
Running Backs
Jonathan Stewart should see 15-20 touches
in Wk 14.
Matt
Forte (9,100/8,700) – Look for the Bears to get back to running
the ball after completely abandoning the run on Thanksgiving.
Going into last week, Forte had been averaging over 24 touches
per game including 6.5 catches per game. Dallas has been giving
up top 3 production to opposing RB’s over the last five weeks.
Rashad
Jennings (7,400/7,100) - or Andre
Williams (6,500/4,400) – Be sure to check the injury report
with this situation to see if Jennings (ankle) is going to play.
Tennessee is giving up the most points to opposing RB’s over the
last five weeks and the second most over the season. If Jennings
is good to go then start him with confidence, otherwise Williams
becomes a great value.
See the note
above. Jennings value has decreased with his limited practice
this week. He is listed as a game time decision.
Bishop Sankey (5,400/4,000) – Sankey has not had his breakout
game this season, but if there is a week that he will do it, facing
the Giants rush defense is as good a time as any. Sankey has seen
double digit touches every week since Week 5. With his volume
of touches he should be able to pay off his price tag. A visit
to the end zone would be a nice bonus.
Jonathan
Stewart (5,200/3,800) – With DeAngelo Williams likely sideline
with a fractured hand, Stewart will see a bulk of the touches
for Carolina. He gets to face a Saints defense that has been the
worst against the run over the last three weeks.
C.J.
Anderson (7,800/7,600) – Anderson has seen 30-plus touches the last
two weeks. Buffalo has been tough against the run but they are
giving up 4.47 yards per carry average over their last six games.
With the Bills focusing on Peyton Manning, Anderson should find
room to run.
Wide Recievers
Dez Bryant (8,600/7,100) – The Bears have given up
top 10 production to opposing WRs this year. Dez is priced as
the 8th and 14th wide receiver at Fanduel and DraftKings respectively.
He has top wideout potential at a reduced price.
Mike
Wallace (7,100/5,200) – Baltimore has given up 8 touchdowns
to opposing wideouts over the last four games and Wallace barely
missed a couple of touchdowns last week. Jarvis Landry has been
getting similar targets and production but will be more widely
owned making Wallace a bit of a contrarian play.
Kendall
Wright (6,700/5,400) – With Justin Hunter (spleen) on season
ending IR, Wright stands to see a few more targets going forward.
He is coming off his best week of the season and has a good rapport
with Mettenberger. Mettenberger is questionable but likely to
play. Downgrade Wright a bit with Locker under center.
Shortly after
publishing, information came out that Wright broke a bone in his
hand during practice. He is listed as doubtful for this week.
This opens up opportunities for Delanie Walker (Tight End listed
below) and Nate Washington (6,600/4,600).
Kenny
Stills (6,400/6,000) – Since teammate Brandin Cooks was lost
to injury, Stills has had the most targets in the Saints offense.
Carolina is giving up top 10 production to opposing WRs this season.
Jump on Stills while his price is still low.
Stedman
Bailey (6,300/4,300) – Bailey has an outstanding matchup against
the Washington secondary this week. He has become Shaun Hill’s
favorite target. There has been quite a bit of buzz around Bailey
so expect his ownership to be a little higher this week.
Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham (7,100/6,400) – Coming off a no-catch,
no-target game last week, look for Graham to get involved early
and often at home this week. His ownership will be down after
last weeks results.
Antonio Gates (5,600/4,700) – Gates has not found the end
zone since Week 8 in Denver. I expect that to change this week
at home against New England who is giving up top 10 production
to opposing tight ends. This game has shootout potential on Sunday
night as it is one of four games with a total in the 50’s.
Delanie Walker (5,400/4,200) – Walker is coming off a down
week where he saw just 1 catch for 6 yards. If Mettenberger starts
this week, look for Walker to rebound in a decent matchup versus
the Giants.
Defenses
Houston (5,300/3,700)
Detroit (5,300/3,400)
San Francisco (5,600/3,600)
Good luck this week!
Suggestions, comments? E-mail
me or follow me on
Twitter.
|
