Every week with the exception of week 17 there will be Thursday
games. While you can choose whether or not you want to play those
early games, this article will be out in time to help you make that
decision with updates to follow when needed. It is worth noting
that there tends to be a short week effect with these Thursday games.
While the sample size is fairly small, comparing midweek games to
weekend games, the statistics show that scoring is lower for the
Thursday contests. The shorter preparation time for teams appears
to result in a more vanilla game plan.
One thing I have always disliked about the Thursday night games
is it might force you into a decision on what to do on the weekends
based on who is available. For instance, if you have a player
listed as questionable on Sunday, you might have to play someone
on a Thursday game rather than chance the zero on Sunday. We saw
that play out last week as Andre Ellington (foot) and Cecil Shorts
(hamstring) we’re both very questionable to play. When setting
your daily lineups you can avoid those questionable players but
it leaves you with fewer options including possibly a value added
backup. Depending on the contest you enter or the rules at that
site, once the Thursday night game starts, you might not be able
to change your line-up (FanDuel). Usually, I am not a fan of using
players in the Thursday game, but I certainly will get in the
contests that allow those players as long as I can use the late
swap feature (DraftKings). This way, my opponents can use the
players in the vanilla game that they get to watch on Thursday
night, and I can take the better value on the weekends.
Now that you know how I approach the Thursday night games, let’s
check out some of the players I am considering for my line-ups.
First let’s look at the projected scores based on the betting
lines.
- Pittsburgh 23.5 at Baltimore 21
- Detroit 20.25 at Carolina 23.25
- Miami 22 at Buffalo 21
- Jacksonville 18.75 at Washington 24.75
- Dallas 23 at Tennessee 26.5
- Arizona 22.75 at NY Giants 20.25
- New England 26 at Minnesota 23
- New Orleans 27 at Cleveland 20.5
- Atlanta 21.75 at Cincinnati 26.75
- St. Louis 15.5 at Tampa Bay 21.5
- Seattle 25.25 at San Diego 19.25
- Houston 21.25 at Oakland 18.25
- NY Jets 19 at Green Bay 27
- Kansas City 19.5 at Denver 32.5
- Chicago 20.75 at San Francisco 27.75
- Philadelphia 25.25 at Indianapolis 28.25
In your cash games (50-50’s and heads-up) I would encourage
you to get at least one or two Broncos in your line-up. This week
the Philadelphia and Indianapolis game looks to have plenty of
scoring in it as well. Other teams to generally target include
New Orleans, Green Bay and San Francisco.
Prices listed are FanDuel and DraftKings in that order.
It's hard to pass on Aaron Rodgers' value
this week.
Quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers,
GB ($9,100/$7,900) – After a tough matchup last week Rodgers
is back home against the Jets. His price is down to the forth-highest
quarterback at FanDuel and the seventh highest at DraftKings.
It is hard to pass on that value.
Tom Brady, NE ($8,500/$7,000) – Belichick and company are
going to want to make a statement after last weeks loss. Minnesota’s
defensive stats look better than they should after facing St.
Louis last week.
Cam Newton, CAR ($8,600/$7,700) – This is a bit of a contrarian
play as many people will not choose him coming back from injury.
Cam is a good GPP option this week.
Andy Dalton, CIN ($7,800/$7,500) – Dalton has better splits
at home and goes against Atlanta’s poor defense.
Alex Smith, KC ($6,700/$6,300) – Kansas City should be
behind in this game leaving Smith with a lot of garbage time attempts.
Running Backs
There are a few questionable situations this week based
on the injury status of some players. I recommend staying away
from the Baltimore (Thursday game) and Cleveland backfield in
cash games this week. There can be good value in some of these
low-priced options but I will avoid them. If I was forced to pick,
I would go with Bernard Pierce in Baltimore and Terrance West
in Cleveland.
The stud backs were largely disappointing last week. I think
the script gets flipped this week and I would pay up for one of
them. I don’t think you can go wrong with any of the top
four (McCoy, Lynch, Charles, Peterson).
Arian Foster, HOU ($8,300/$7,000) – It will probably be
tough to get Foster in your line-up this week if you already have
one of the big guns. I like Foster against Oakland and this could
be a good GPP play.
Giovani Bernard, CIN ($7,800/$6,300) – He was on the field
on 86% of the offensive plays last week to the popular Jeremy
Hill’s 15%. I see more of the same this week.
Doug Martin, TB ($7,400/$5,100) – CHECK INJURY STATUS.
I really like Martin’s upside this week and his lower price
at DraftKings. If Martin is out I will plug Bobby Rainey ($5,000/$4,800)
in there instead.
Wide Recievers
Randall Cobb, GB ($7,600/$6,400) – Cobb has good
value this week and I will look to pair him up with Rodgers.
Pierre Garcon, WAS ($6,900/$6,400) – Garcon is a target
monster and I like him this week versus Jacksonville
Reggie Wayne, IND ($6,200/$5,300) – Wayne had 13 targets
last week and has an ideal matchup against the Eagles.
Robert Woods, BUF ($5,200/$3,500) – He was on the field
for 91% of the offensive snaps last week and led the team with
4 receptions. I like his upside potential in GPPs.
Nate
Washington, TEN ($5,100/$3,400) – Justin Hunter is going to
be the popular pick this week against Dallas. I will take the
contrarian play and go with Washington instead.
Tight Ends
This week I will be paying up for this position where I
can and going with Jimmy Graham ($8,000/$7,000) or Julius Thomas
($8,100/$7,100). I do like some of the value options this week
though too.
Jason Witten, DAL ($6,300/$3,800) – Witten is a better
value at DraftKings than FanDuel. Tennessee was the ninth worst
team against tight ends last year and I look for Witten to bounce
back.
Larry Donnell, NYG ($4,500/$3,000) – The Giants offense
is garbage, but Donnell is a minimum salaried guy going up against
the 2013 worst defense against tight ends.
Jermaine Gresham, CIN ($4,500/$3,000) – With Eifert out
on the short term IR, I like Gresham to step up.
Defenses
At defense this week (and most weeks for that matter) I
am going to fade the weak offenses.
Arizona ($5,300/$3,300) versus N.Y.Giants
Tampa Bay ($4,900/$3,200) versus St. Louis
Be sure to check back this weekend for updates or added plays.
Good luck!
Suggestions, comments? E-mail
me.
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