8/24/05
A year ago this four part series, focused only on specific camp
battles around the league. In the first segment this season (tight
ends), I went into a little more detail about draft strategy
for the position, and discussed several players removed from camp
battles in order to provide a little more depth to the topic. I
isolated seven misunderstood and possibly important battles, trying
to clear the fog as best as possible. Hopefully, the information
will help readers avoid the mistake of drafting the loser of a camp
battle. If you followed the average draft positions (ADPs), you
know many are making that error. You also have some interesting
sleepers to consider late in your draft.
The quarterback position has a scenario similar to the TEs, so
I'm going to discuss late round draft strategy along with the
camp battles again. As with the TEs, there's a couple top tier
studs drafted early (P. Manning and Culpepper), a batch of quality
QBs that fall through the middle rounds, and always a player or
three with great value late in the draft. Likewise, shrewd fantasy
owners often tab one of the top QBs early, or build strength at
WR and RB while waiting a little longer than most to fill in a
QB likely to keep pace with, or even surpass, several chosen earlier.
This sounds very familiar if you read the TE segment. The key
to fantasy success is choosing the right studs and simply drafting
players who outperform their ADPs.
Given the high production, visibility and popularity of QBs,
it isn't my purpose here to discuss the established starters around
the league. For a terrific resource, projections, what you can
expect, and ideas on how to play it; see Mike and Mike's excellent
FFToday Draft
Plan. It's a highly condensed thing of beauty; better organized
and researched than information you'd be paying for elsewhere;
and loaded with everything you need to build a powerhouse team--
even this series on camp battles.
Later in the week, as I move along to RBs and WRs, my focus will
narrow down to camp battles alone. For fantasy purposes the necessity
of digging into camp battles at QB is first and foremost to help
you avoid unknowingly drafting a non-starter. As you shall see,
the five questionable situations around the league are fairly
easy to analyze, and no one should be taking a non-starter unless
they do so by choice. Jeff Garcia anyone? These five situations
also take us down to the "bottom feeding" ranks of fantasy
QBs. That doesn't sound too enticing, but please keep reading.
Bottom feeding QBs, both in and out of camp battles, are a topic
worth discussing, and here's why: In almost every season in memory,
and I've been at this for 19 years now, there's been at least
one quarterback taken very late, or not at all, who turns in a
big season. Last year I was telling anyone who would listen that
Drew Brees wasn't just the clear winner of a perceived camp battle,
but playing remarkably well. In a deep IDP league, I picked him
up with my last pick in the 25th round. As you should recall,
he went on to have a career season tossing 27 td passes, only
7 picks, and ending up with the 3rd highest QB rating in the NFL
(below only Manning and Culpepper). Sometimes bottom feeding for
a QB serves up filet mignon. It requires a little luck, a little
more research, and very little risk with a late draft pick. Few
of us forget the season when Kurt Warner went from undrafted in
most fantasy leagues to league MVP. No I didn't draft him that
year. I didn't know who the heck he was.
There's other benefits to scraping the bottom for a QB. If you're
the guy who spent a first or second rounder for Manning or Culpepper,
then you have some ground to make up at RB (maybe WR too). All
you need at QB is good health from your #1 and a bye week fill-in.
Do your best to catch up at the other positions and find a late
round QB (or two if the rest of this paragraph encourages you)
with an excellent matchup the week of your starter's bye. In standard
12 team leagues every owner will have at least two QBs. That's
24-- leaving 8 starters available in free agency. Generally, a
couple owners will go deeper and add a third QB. We're now down
to 6 available starters, and there could be more than two owners
adding the depth. There's always an injury here and there, and
at that point things really get thin (Yes, their backups are often
better value than the other scraps in free agency.). Finally,
you can expect a few QBs to really struggle, making the situation
at rock bottom nearly desperate. In 10 team leagues this isn't
as obvious; in larger leagues it's a serious situation.
So, I'm a big fan of fishing for QBs at the bottom of the draft,
depleting the resource for the rest of the league, and hoping
to find real value. If he doesn't pan out, my 3rd QB may be the
first dumped when someone more attractive becomes available in
free agency. If he does pan out, I've got a terrific situation
where I can trade a QB to someone hurting at the position-- a
pain I helped inflict; or possibly use the late pick as a starter
myself. It's low risk high reward roster management at it's best.
Keeping all this in mind, let's bottom feed and check out camp
battles for QBs. As always, the numbers in parentheses represent
average draft positions (ADPs).
Detroit Lions
Joey Harrington (11.7) vs. Jeff Garcia
(17.4)
The most anticipated and talked about camp battle at QB this
season has been this one between Harrington and Garcia and for
the pleasure of spreading the ball around to the wealth of skill
position talent accumulated by the young Lions. Veteran Jeff Garcia
came into camp with no intention of mentoring Joey Harrington.
Reuniting with HC Steve Mariucci, Garcia came to win the starting
job and re-establish himself as one of the league's highest producing
QBs. At first glance it looked like a golden opportunity for both
Garcia and the Lions. Many NFL experts perceived the missing ingredient
in Detroit to be an answer to the sporadic and sometimes abysmal
play of Joey Harrington. Garcia looked like a great fit. Unfortunately
for fantasy fans and the Lions, Garcia hasn't backed up his challenging
words on the field of play. At this point, it would take a phenomenal
turnaround by Garcia to unseat Harrington. It's safe to proclaim
Joey as the Detroit starter going into the season.
This information hasn't been missed by fantasy owners. Harrington's
ADP has moved up a full two rounds, while Garcia has slid from
the 15th to the 17th. Those still drafting Garcia, are most likely
doing so as a hedge, believing eventually his opportunity will
come, and the performance will be there. Harrington's past struggles
suggest it's still possible for Garcia this season.
The great news in Detroit is that Harrington responded to the
challenge by perceiving it as a "jolt" forcing him to
play better. He has played better. His preseason performance thus
far has been eerily similar to Drew Brees from a year ago. He's
kept the mistakes to a minimum while efficiently delivering the
football with some struggles in the redzone. The bad news for
fantasy fans is unlike Brees last year, Harrington is surrounded
by talent expected to produce, and none of us should expect to
take a last ditch flyer on Harrington like we could with Brees.
If Harrington was still available near the 14th round, he'd be
exactly the type of 3rd QB I target. Another solid preseason performance
and I may be convinced to bring him aboard as early as his ADP.
If he falls deep into your draft, don't leave him in free agency.
Chicago Bears
Chad Hutchinson vs. Kyle Orton vs.
Jeff Blake
Ugh. The Bears entered training camp with QB Rex Grossman unopposed
and promising to have his best season. Grossman proceeded to break
his ankle and may be shelved for the entire season. Second on
the depth chart and immediately named the starter is former Cowboy
back up and last season's stand in, Chad Hutchinson. A below par
performance in five games a year ago, and struggling with his
mechanics in camp, Hutchinson is being ignored by fantasy fans
along with any other QB on the Bears roster. Rookie Kyle Orton
has been the talk of a possible camp battle, but Bears coaches
refuse to throw the young prospect to the wolves. Orton finds
himself in a familiar situation for highly touted rookie QBs.
Should the team really struggle, he may be called on to show what
he can do. Should the Bears be contending, then Hutchinson will
keep the starting job unless injury stops him, in which case,
freshly acquired Jeff Blake would hopefully be ready to run the
offense. The injury to Grossman makes this look like an accident
on a busy freeway complete with a traffic cop saying, "Move
along! Nothing to see here." I'm playing the role of traffic
cop.
Miami Dolphins
Gus Frerotte (18.7) vs. AJ Feeley
The Miami Dolphins have an excellent wide receiver in Chris Chambers
and one of the league's better tight ends in Randy McMichael.
Marty Booker is a steady player to run opposite Chambers, and
David Boston appears to have made an unexpected comeback. Even
the running game is improved with the return of Ricky Williams
and the addition of Ronnie Brown, the first RB chosen in the draft.
Many elements are in place for a sleeper QB to emerge and lead
the Dolphins' offense to higher ground. But a couple crucial elements
are missing. The offensive line has earned the scorn of HC Nick
Saban. He's blamed the 0-line for the inability to develop any
promise from the QB position, and Gus Frerotte has earned the
starting job with an almost embarrassing performance. There's
reason to believe the coaches are concerned about more than just
the 0-line. Quality sources inside the Dolphin organization have
been leaking names like Tim Couch and Adrian McPherson to the
media. If you're hoping the Saints cut a young QB so you can nab
him, then the situation is truly desperate. Did I say I enjoy
bottom feeding for QBs? I did, so let's drop our hooks elsewhere.
Washington Redskins
Patrick Ramsey (14.12) vs Mark Brunnell
Redskins homers would sadly announce that this situation was
never an actual camp battle. I call this the Joe Theisman QB controversy.
The retired Redskin QB and annoying television color man has campaigned
for Brunnell with every errant throw from the young Ramsey. HC
Joe Gibbs isn't interested in anything Joe Theisman has to say
and has stood by Patrick Ramsey since day one. Ramsey has two-stepped
and jitterbugged his way through the preseason with respectable
numbers that belie his shoddy play. The additions of Santana Moss
and David Patten are hardly an upgrade over jettisoned Laveranues
Coles and Rod Gardner. But they will provide Ramsey with respectable
targets and opportunities for big plays. Chris Cooley (a sleeper
from the TE segment) provides a solid over the middle go to option.
The positive news in Washington this season is the vast improvement
of the offensive line. Add that to the amazingly talented Clinton
Portis, and the situation in Washington really does resemble San
Diego's from a year ago. Almost nobody had faith in Brees then,
and Ramsey is currently the brunt of jokes in fantasy circles.
I know, I took him for a buck in an auction. I was then told I
overpaid. Maybe I'll have the last laugh. I was just depleting
the position and bottom feeding by choosing Ramsey over a Dolphin,
a Bear, and a couple other bottom dwellers. I'm one pundit who
thinks he has a chance. Again like Brees a year ago, if he doesn't
produce a quality season-- this is his last chance. I like his
motivation, and the most important element down here on the bottom
is probably the respective offensive lines.
San Francisco 49ers
Alex Smith (13.7) vs. Tim Rattay (17.5)
Here's one where all the "experts" drafting early who
provide us with ADPs were on the wrong end of a camp battle. There's
alot of Alex Smith owners out there, and HC Mike Nolan has announced
the competition closed. Tim Rattay gets another year at the helm
of the floundering 49ers. It's not often an NFL organization heads
into camp expecting a rookie quarterback to be the starter. But
that was the case until the rookie repeatedly played like one
in preseason games. In the end, the demotion is good news for
a very talented and possible future star. Alex Smith was not ready
for Sundays yet, and Tim Rattay, like many others down here at
the bottom, has risen to the challenge. There are some who cite
his wide open divisional schedule and excellent preseason play
as reasons to take him before Ramsey. We're bottom feeding down
here, and I prefer the situation in Washington myself, but this
could easily be the better call. I'd feel better about it if the
49er offensive line was showing improvement, and the other pieces
to the puzzle were a little higher quality.
Since I'm mentioning the San Francisco offensive line, I'd like
to take this moment to express my deep condolences to the 49ers
organization and players, and even more so to the friends and
family of 0-lineman Thomas Herrion, who tragically died after
this Saturday's game in Denver.
Around the League
Keeping with the theme of bottom feeding, I'm going to use Joey
Harrington's ADP as a ceiling for the bottom and discuss a few
QBs down here who avoided camp battles but may fit the late QB
theory free agency depletion theory better than those discussed
above.
Ben Roethlisberger (11.7) had
an amazing rookie season leading the Steelers to a 15-1 record.
There's no questioning it, the kid is a winner. He's the kind
of QB I wish was starting for my favorite team, but he's not the
kind of QB I look for late in a fantasy draft. He will be a serviceable
and steady back up for many fantasy owners, but I seek more upside
later in the draft. The Steelers are a time of possession chewing,
power running offense, supported by a dominant defense. Big Ben
plays his role in the system to perfection. Unfortunately, it's
not a system conducive to generating impressive QB stats.
Kurt Warner (12.1) has another
new in gig in just the type of situation I look for. Projections
for his top two receivers, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald
suggest that Kurt just needs to stay behind center and deliver
the ball to prove well worth his ADP. HC Denny Green has a history
of turning veteran QBs into quality fantasy stars, and the high
octane schedule could put Kurt in shootouts all season long. If
you like the way his situation is setting up, there's a couple
caveats. In serious expert drafts (and big money leagues) the
above information is not going unnoticed and Kurt's stock is on
the rise. You may have to take the plunge as early as the 9th
round, and waiting for the 12th probably will cost you the opportunity
to own Kurt Warner this season. On top of that, there's a school
of thought which believes Kurt is playing scared after taking
a pounding the past few seasons, and he's a mere shadow of the
former MVP. If not for those concerns, there'd be no chance to
draft him this late, so the risk versus reward is a decision for
each individual owner. I see little risk compared to the possible
reward, and won't hesitate to draft him, or dump him if he looks
like a deer in the headlights, or fumbles out of self-protection
again.
Eli Manning (12.8) certainly
has the skills and pedigree to one day be a force in fantasy football.
With Plaxico Burress added to Amani Toomer, Jeremy Shockey and
Tiki Barber, and with a tough year of seasoning under his belt,
I still don't think Eli is ready for prime time. He has a schedule
almost as QB friendly as Warner's. The offensive line, considered
by some the worst in the league a year ago, gave up 52 sacks,
and is only improved through continuity in the system. If that's
enough to protect Manning much much better, then I am reading
this wrong, but I'll fish around for Peyton's kid brother next
season.
Drew Bledsoe (13.2) reunites
with both HC Bill Parcells and aging WR Terry Glenn in what should
feel like watching a syndicated 90s sitcom that was canceled because
the ratings were never very good begin with. It's hard to get
excited about this situation, but like Warner and Manning the
schedule is QB friendly. It's expected that Parcells is going
to grind it out with Julius Jones and the big 0-line, and Bledsoe's
job is merely to avoid turnovers. There are rumors that the connection
with Glenn seems like old times, but drafting a fantasy team is
no time for enjoying nostalgia.
Rock Bottom
Kyle Boller (13.7), JP
Losman (14.5), and Trent Dilfer
(14.2) are all that's left to talk about among opening day starters.
Boller's another in a system designed to control the clock and
rely on a great defense. The addition of Derrick Mason and a healthy
Todd Heap will help his production in the passing game, but his
numbers, by design, will remain limited. JP Losman's situation
in Buffalo barely differs from Boller's, but Losman is a lesser
known commodity. I appreciate his athleticism and ability to run
with the ball. Buying time for receivers by scrambling can create
big plays, and with Lee Evans and Eric Moulds in the pattern,
Losman may put up surprising numbers. In Boller's case we know
what we get, and it isn't anything to be excited about. With Losman,
we don't and it could be. Bottom fishing is like rolling dice
sometimes. Trent Dilfer was brought to Cleveland to provide veteran
leadership and stability to a team in transition. Romeo Crennel
is a no nonsense coach bringing New England's vaunted approach
to Cleveland. This is a bigger unknown even than the others and
the prudent fantasy owner will leave Trent in free agency but
not hesitate to snatch him up if he suddenly looks like Tom Brady
in Romeo's system. Making Dilfer just a little more interesting
are the ongoing weekly rave reviews of Antonio Bryant, the Browns
new WR.
Summary
A primary purpose for this article is to declare the winner of
QB controversies so readers will not be caught up in hype elsewhere
and unknowingly draft a back up. It's a season with few confusing
camp battles, and the winners are declared here with confidence.
I've added my bottom feeding draft strategy for depleting free
agency. Hopefully I've helped you catch one of the QBs who rise
up from the bottom and achieve far beyond their ADPs. Joey Harrington
and Kurt Warner are the two most promising prospects, but they
have to be moved on sooner than the rest. Ben Roethlisberger is
set to give us chapter two of what should be a very successful
NFL career, and another mundane fantasy season. Deep into the
most unappreciated NFL QBs, I'm considering Ramsey or Rattay as
3rd QBs with the possibility of "going Drew Brees" this
season. And, I'll be keeping a keen eye on JP Losman and Trent
Dilfer, just in case.
Next up: Those all important Running Backs
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