|
Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
|
 By: Dave Stringer — October 15, 2010 @ 1:19 pm
1. We all know that the NFL has become a passing league over the last decade, with several quarterbacks regularly putting up numbers that would have been considered remarkable 10 to 20 years ago. Two years ago, Saints quarterback Drew Brees came within 15 yards of tying Dan Marino’s record for passing yards in a season, a record that was considered unbreakable after Marino’s amazing 1984 season. However, after five weeks this year, three quarterbacks are on pace to break that record. The trio of Philip Rivers (on pace for 5,629 passing yards), Kyle Orton (5,545), and Peyton Manning (5,149) all have a chance to eclipse Marino’s single-season numbers, with Rivers likely having the best chance if the Chargers running game fails to breakout.
2. The Rams passing attack was dealt a major blow when wide receiver Mark Clayton suffered a torn patellar tendon during this week’s loss to Detroit. Since being acquired from the Ravens just prior to opening day, Clayton had quickly emerged as the team’s top receiver and had caught 22 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns during the first four games. Although Laurent Robinson may seem like the obvious choice to replace Clayton in the starting lineup, look for rookie fourth-round pick Mardy Gilyard to get the nod. Clayton was playing flanker in the Rams offense, and Gilyard has been learning the slot and flanker positions while Robinson has been lining up at split end, where Brandon Gibson usually gets most of the reps.
3. With their win over the Rams this week, the Lions won their first game of 2010 and just their third over their last 38 games. This week in New York against the Giants, they will attempt to win back-to-back games for the first time in 45 contests, dating back to the 2007 season.
4. This week, the Bills announced they were abandoning their 3-4 defense and moving back to the 4-3 as their base package. Head coach Chan Gailey wanted to run the 3-4 and brought in former Dolphins assistant George Edwards to be the team’s defensive coordinator and lead the switch. However, Gailey and general manager Buddy Nix failed to obtain the proper personnel to run the 3-4, so it comes as no surprise that Buffalo has not been able to stop the run in 2010. The Bills don’t have a run-stuffing nose tackle to anchor the front line, their outside linebackers consist almost exclusively of former defensive ends in their first year at a new position, and they were relying on former Dolphin and Giant retread Reggie Torbor to provide a pass rush along with overrated 2009 first-round pick Aaron Maybin, who routinely gets steamrolled in the rushing game by opposing offensive lineman.
5. Keeping with the Bills, if you’re in an IDP league, roll with any defensive lineman that is facing the Bills in the coming weeks. Left tackle Demetrious Bell continues to struggle as he recovers from knee surgery, and right tackle Cornell Green is expected to miss several weeks with a sore knee that has bothered him since the preseason. Even though Green hasn’t been very good in his first year in Buffalo, the Bills failed to bring in a veteran swing tackle backup, so they will turn to undrafted rookie free agent Cordaro Howard to start in Green’s absence.
6. The Texans, as expected, didn’t re-sign cornerback Dunta Robinson in the offseason as he entered free agency, choosing instead to go with a group of young players at the position. The team’s top four cornerbacks entering the season were a pair of second year players in Brice McCain and Glover Quin and a pair of rookies in Kareem Jackson (first round) and Sherrick McManis (fifth round). Quin and Jackson have struggled in starting roles, and the Texans currently rank last in the league in passing defense, giving up 330 yards per game. They have also given up a whopping 11 touchdown passes, ranking second-worst in the league in that category. Although general manager Rick Smith has maintained that the pass defense will come around, the team signed aging veterans Adewale Ogunleye and Ryan Denney (since released) to help out in pass rushing roles (and thus to help the cornerbacks). They also claimed former Bears defensive end Mark Anderson off waivers this week.
 Gimme the damn ball! 7. Greg Jennings of the Packers has never been mentioned in the same category as the league’s diva wide receivers, such as Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco, but he apparently went off on the coaches over his lack of use during this week’s loss to the Redskins. He has had a disappointing start to the season with just two receptions in three straight games and 101 receiving yards over the last four. However, he figures to get more looks in the coming weeks with Green Bay’s other receivers coming off poor performances against Washington (six drops between Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson) and tight end Jermichael Finley out at least eight games (and possibly for the year) with a knee injury. That makes Jennings a great buy-low candidate.
8. The sports world is full of stories of players and their agents turning down lucrative contract offers, only to sign at a later date for far less money. It’s just not often that you see a pair of players from the same team do so over a two-week period with such differing results. Chargers left tackle Marcus McNeill and wide receiver Vincent Jackson both received restricted free agent tenders back in February for just over $3-million, and both players vowed they would not sign the tenders, opting to sit out the 2010 season instead. However, McNeill backed down and signed his tender two weeks ago, agreeing to a five-year contract extension for $48.5-million that contains $24.5-million in guaranteed money. This week, word leaked out that Jackson will sign his tender but will not receive the $3.3-million contract he was tendered back in February. Chargers general manager A.J. Smith reduced the tendered amount back on June 15th, and Jackson will play for a prorated portion of the new tender of $583,000. That means he will make $218,000 if he reports in time to play six games—the minimum number of games required for him to become an unrestricted free agent next year.
9. Keeping with Jackson, he faces numerous hurdles in order to have a productive stretch of games when he returns. First of all, he will not be in game shape, and that will put him at a significant disadvantage for his first couple of games. While Jackson is a quality wide receiver, he doesn’t rank among the league’s elite yet. Secondly, it remains to be seen whether he will show up in the proper frame of mine and be motivated. There is certainly a chance that he will simply go through the motions. Finally, as we have seen with other players who have missed time with holdouts, there is an increased chance of injury for those who attempt to get up to game speed quickly and try to do too much, too early. If you are a V-Jax owner and a team comes looking for him in a trade, I would seriously consider moving him, given the various obstacles he faces in becoming a quality fantasy contributor in 2010.
10. The Saints haven’t been nearly as explosive this season as in 2009. New Orleans is currently on pace to finish with just 317 points after scoring 510 last season. The question is: why has there been such a dramatic drop off? Well, there are two main reasons. First off, the team’s rushing attack has suffered with the loss of Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. After ranking sixth in the league in rushing in 2009, with 21 rushing touchdowns while averaging 4.5 yards per carry, they now rank 31st, with just a single rushing touchdown in five games. Secondly, with Bush out of the line-up, opposing defenses can play both safeties deep, thereby taking away the big plays that were the Saints’ hallmark over the last two seasons. Don’t expect much to change until both Thomas and Bush return to the lineup.
By: Dave Stringer — October 12, 2010 @ 2:11 pm
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
Fitzpatrick has topped 20 fantasy points in three consecutive games and ranks sixth in points per game at the quarterback position, despite passing for just 595 yards during that stretch. He has padded his fantasy production by tossing eight touchdowns, and he also added 74 rushing yards in Week 4. While I’m not anointing him starter material by any means, given the state of the Bills offense, he is decent bye week filler and is now worthy of a roster spot in most leagues.
Moving Down
Matt Schaub, Texans
I’m a little wary to designate Schaub as Moving Down. I put him here after Week 1, following the Texans’ bullying of the Colts behind a solid rushing attack led by Arian Foster, rationalizing that with a decent running game, Houston would throw far less in 2010 than they did last season. Then Schaub went out and tossed for 497 yards and three touchdowns against the Redskins in Week 2. That was nice, since he’s my starter in one league; yet not so nice, since it made my prognostication look bad. Since then, he has thrown for 633 yards (a 211-yard per-game average) and has now thrown for less than 200 yards in three out of fives games.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
Michael Bush, Raiders
Bush didn’t get much work in his first couple games back from missing time with a wrist injury, and it appeared he had become nothing more than Darren McFadden’s handcuff. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, however, given McFadden’s injury history. This week, with McFadden out because of a strained hamstring, Bush had a solid game against a tough Chargers run defense, gaining 104 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries. He also chipped in three receptions for 31 yards and may have earned himself a bigger portion of the touches out of the Raiders backfield going forward. Plus, he will be a nice fill-in if (when?) McFadden gets hurt.
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
Charles fumbled this week and failed to score a touchdown, but the most interesting development in the Chiefs backfield was that Charles received significantly more touches than starter Thomas Jones. Charles had 17 touches to just eight for Jones, marking the first time since Week 1 that has happened (the Week 1 tally was 12 for Charles and 11 for Jones). Could the light have gone on during the team’s Week 4 bye, showing Chiefs head coach Todd Haley that maybe the team’s most dynamic offensive player should get more touches? Will it take until next year’s bye before Haley figures out that the best players should be in the starting lineup? Just how quick is Haley on the uptake? Fantasy owners want to know. I’m guessing this is the beginning of a trend as Haley realizes that the Chiefs can’t rely on special teams and defense to carry them, as they did during their first three games.
Fred Jackson, Bills
Marshawn Lynch is gone. Bills head coach Chan Gailey said that Jackson would take over as the team’s starter, and Jackson got the majority of the work this week over C.J. Spiller (13 touches to six). While Jackson is the current starter and was productive in 2009, I’m not getting too excited about him. Expect Spiller to earn a larger role as the season progresses and don’t forget that the Bills offense is hit-and-miss, with more misses than hits. While Jackson topped 1,400 total yards in 2009, it is worth noting that he scored just four touchdowns.
Jerome Harrison, Browns
He’s back! After getting no touches during Week 4, Harrison got some work this week against the Falcons, gaining six yards on six carries. While that is hardly stellar production, the more interesting development was starting running back Peyton Hillis suffering another injury. Hillis has now suffered thigh and quad injuries over the last two weeks and may not be suited for such a heavy workload. Harrison has been productive at times, including having some huge games at the end of last season, so he is worth stashing away on your roster in case Hillis gets hurt again.
Mike Hart, Colts
This one’s for deeper leagues. Let’s take stock of the Colts backfield. Joseph Addai is injury prone and is well on his way to averaging under 4.0 yards per carry for the third consecutive season (he’s currently at 3.7 yards per tote). Donald Brown also can’t stay healthy, having missed seven games out of 21 in his career, and he has done little to suggest that he’s ready to challenge Addai as the starter. Then there is Hart, who had a tidy game this week with 11 carries for 50 yards and a touchdown as well as a reception that went for five yards, subbing for the injured Addai. The Colts generally release injury information early, so expect an update on Addai’s neck or shoulder injury before many fantasy leagues process their waiver wires.
Felix Jones, Cowboys
Jones had 19 touches this week to just six for Marion Barber, which may indicate that the Cowboys will start using him more. That will likely lead to another Jones injury, so I’m hardly excited. Here’s my quick take on Jones: He will not develop into a consistent fantasy option in 2010. The Dallas running attack has been miserable. And good luck guessing which week the Cowboys will actually succeed at running, combined with Jones being the back (between himself, Barber, and Choice) who gets the rock. Nonetheless, he’s moving up simply because this was one of those weeks—he picked up 126 total yards.
Brandon Jackson, Packers
I’m moving Jackson up—not because I like him, but because I have been so harsh on him that I must make amends for his big game this week against the Redskins (10 carries for 115 yards, five receptions for 25 yards). So, just to be clear, he’s up because he was good this week, not because I think he’ll be good over the balance of the season. And he’s last on this list for a reason. Take head.
Moving Down
Justin Forsett and Leon Washington, Seahawks
After the Seahawks acquired Marshawn Lynch from the Bills, the odds of Forsett having a breakout season in 2010 dropped to virtually nil. As for Washington, there was a chance he might gain a majority of the work at running back around midseason if he could prove that he was completely healthy. That also seems highly unlikely now. With the Seahawks offence hardly being a juggernaut, Forsett is worth holding onto only in deep leagues, and you can officially drop Washington in all but the largest fantasy formats.
Mike Tolbert, Chargers
Tolbert had a touchdown this week against the Raiders. But he also had just 12 yards on his 11 carries and sat for most of the fourth quarter while Ryan Mathews got the work. Mathews finished with 59 yards on just nine carries and it is abundantly clear that he is the team’s top threat out of the backfield.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
Malcom Floyd, Chargers
Well, I benched Floyd this week in favor of (ahem) Derrick Mason, thinking that the Raiders would put Nnamdi Asomugha on Floyd. All he did was go off for eight receptions, 213 yards, and a touchdown. Basically, I had him down as a must-start except in games against the Broncos (Champ Bailey) and the Raiders. After this performance, he is now the fourth-ranked wide receiver in standard fantasy formats, which makes him a must-start on a weekly basis.
Michael Crabtree, 49ers
There was a Michael Crabtree sighting this weekend and that collective sigh that reverberated across the fantasy landscape was his owners contemplating what the 2009 first-rounder might accomplish with his head screwed on straight. Facing a respectable Eagles pass defense, Crabtree had easily his best game of the season and the best game of his brief career, catching nine passes for 104 yards and a touchdown. He was targeted 14 times by quarterback Alex Smith, hopefully squashing the rumors that Smith was apprehensive about going to Crabtree after he caused numerous interceptions earlier this season.
Brandon Lloyd, Broncos
Keeping with what appears to be this week’s theme, Lloyd has also now firmly established himself as a week-in, week-out must-start for fantasy purposes. The mercurial Lloyd now leads the league in receiving yards with 589 on just 30 catches, which translates into an impressive 19.6 yards per catch. He also has three touchdowns and is the top-ranked fantasy wide receiver after five games. Imagine what you could have won in Vegas had you thrown down some money on that! Lloyd has topped 100 yards receiving in three straight games and has four 100-yard games in 2010. He is clearly the best Broncos receiver to own and has established himself as Kyle Orton’s go-to guy in an offense that is throwing it plenty.
Percy Harvin, Vikings
Harvin more than doubled his 2010 fantasy production this week with a pair of touchdowns and 97 receiving yards against the Jets. Harvin seemed to benefit from playing opposite Randy Moss, with the Jets frequently putting a safety deep on Moss’s side of the field. If Sidney Rice fails to make it back onto the field in 2010, Harvin shapes up as a decent WR3 going forward. Monitor the Rice situation and consider Harvin a potential sell-high candidate in the coming weeks if he continues to play well and Rice’s return becomes imminent.
Steve Johnson, Bills
Who? Steve Johnson, that’s who. And, yeah, that’s right, he plays for the woebegone Bills. Johnson entered the season as the starter opposite Lee Evans, only to quickly lose the job to Roscoe Parrish. No matter. Johnson had a nice game this week against Jacksonville with five receptions for 46 yards and two touchdowns, and he has now scored touchdowns in three straight games. For the season, Johnson has caught 17 of his 18 targets for 214 yards and four touchdowns. Which begs the question: Why isn’t Buffalo throwing it to him more often?
Moving Down
Greg Jennings, Packers
Failing to produce on a consistent basis, Jennings has been one of the biggest disappointments at wide receiver in 2010. This week, he had his third consecutive two-catch performance, and he has just 14 receptions for 183 yards over the Packers’ five games. His fantasy stats have been padded by three touchdowns, but he has not attained the WR1 status most owners expected entering the season. With Green Bay’s offensive line struggling and opposing defenses playing mostly cover-two sets to take away big plays from the Packers potent offense, Jennings has become a bit of a forgotten man. I still like him, just a lot less than I did earlier in the season.
Chad Ochocinco, Bengals
Ochocinco ranks right up there with Jennings in terms of being a huge disappointment. Although I’m not ready to write him off just yet, my expectations for him over the balance of the season are definitely lower than those of Jennings. At this point, Ochocinco is clearly the number two receiver behind Terrell Owens in Cincinnati’s passing offense. Much like when T.J. Houshmandzadeh was in Cincinnati, Owens has become the team’s best option on short and intermediate routes and Ochocinco is working downfield. However, Owens is a much more viable target on deep passing plays than Houshmandzadeh was. Perhaps that’s why Ochocinco has just 11 targets over the last two games.
 Catching the ball - a key component in being a relevant fantasy receiver. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
Well, I don’t know. I’ve never been an NFL receiver or head coach, but I’m guessing that you can’t produce if you can’t catch the ball—and Bowe can’t seem to do that. I’m also guessing that head coaches aren’t going to keep calling plays for receivers who can’t make the catch. This week, Bowe dropped two easy passes, including one in the end zone that would have given the Chiefs a 13-9 lead over the Colts in a game they eventually lost. Of course, the Chiefs head coach is a guy who starts Thomas Jones over Jamaal Charles at running back, so maybe he will keeping throwing it to Bowe.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
I had him moving up after Week 2 and it’s time to put him here again. Although Lewis has put up a middling receiving yardage total (192 in five games), he has emerged as a quality red zone target for quarterback David Garrard. After failing to catch more than two touchdowns during any of his first four years in the league, Lewis has five touchdowns already in 2010, making him the fourth-ranked fantasy tight end.
Moving Down
Dustin Keller, Jets
After suffering through a disappointing sophomore season, Keller emerged as a threat early this year, catching 19 passes for 254 yard and five touchdowns during the Jets first four games. This week, with Santonio Holmes in the line-up for the first time and Jerricho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards healthy, Keller was targeted just five times, catching two passes for 14 yards. While Keller is still a valuable fantasy tight end, there are warning signs on the horizon. And expecting him to produce as he did during his first four games is unwise. He’s definitely a sell-high candidate.
By: Dave Stringer — October 8, 2010 @ 11:16 am
1. The leading fantasy producer at tight end for the Houston Texans is Owen Daniels, right? Wrong. It’s Joel Dreessen courtesy of his five-reception, 73 yard, one touchdown performance this past week against the Raiders. In fact, his 13 fantasy points last week are nine more than Daniels (who has two games with under 10 yards) has this season. At this point, it appears that Dreessen has surpassed Daniels in the tight end pecking order in Houston.
2. Eagles head coach Andy Reid has always had a reputation of being poor at clock management but he seems to have taken his incompetence to a new level. This week, LeSean McCoy was ruled down just short of the goal line with 23 seconds remaining before halftime and Philadelphia trailing Washington 17-3. The replay booth called for a review that took five minutes to complete and the call was not overturned. Despite having all that time to come up with a fourth down play call, the Eagles were called for delay of game, forcing them to kick a field goal on fourth down at the six-yard line.
3. Jaguars kicker Josh Scobee’s 59-yard game winning field goal against the Colts last week was the third longest game winning field goal and eighth longest in the history of the league. For whatever reason, the Jaguars always play the Colts tough and Scobee now has three game winning field goals over Indianapolis, all from greater than 50 yards. I have some advice for Josh. After you nail a game winning kick, don’t try to run away from your teammates. You are a kicker. They will catch you. Hit the ground after the kick and take cover so you don’t get hurt.
 He's good. 4. Moving to the Colts, Reggie Wayne’s monster day last week (10 receptions for 176 yards) moves him and quarterback Peyton Manning into second place on the list of most receiving yards between a wide receiver and quarterback in league history. The only duo ahead of them are Manning and former Colts wide receiver Marvin Harrison.
5. Since the start of the 2007 season, there have been three 40-yard runs by quarterbacks. It’s not surprising that Vince Young and Donovan McNabb have accomplished the feat given their running ability but Lions quarterback Shaun Hill was a surprise addition with a 40-yard scamper last week against the Packers.
6. Packers cornerback Charles Woodson had an interception return for a touchdown last week against the Lions, given him ten such plays in his career. That ranks him third all-time in that category behind Deion Sanders (12) and Rod Woodson (11).
7. With their special teams having a dominant performance during the shellacking of the Dolphins on Monday night, New England became the first team in NFL history to score a touchdown on a run, a pass, interception, kickoff return and a blocked field goal.
8. Here’s to the Rams, who are currently tied for first place in the woeful NFC West with a record of two wins and two losses. Entering last week’s home game against Seattle, the Rams had lost ten straight games to Seattle and 15 straight division games. With their 20-3 thrashing of the Seahawks, the Rams stopped both streaks and are beginning to look like they could challenge for the division crown behind rookie quarterback Sam Bradford and running back Steven Jackson, who surpassed Marshall Faulk this week to become the team’s second leading all-time rusher behind Eric Dickerson. That’s good company to keep.
9. Keeping with the Rams, they have allowed 17 points or less in their first four games, an astounding statistic given that their defense has ranked at the bottom of the league for most of the past decade. This is the first times a Rams defense has achieved this feat since the 1978 season.
10. More Rams. Their defense has given up four touchdowns – tied for the league lead with the Steelers and Ravens (sorry – I’m a Rams fan and I just had to mention that since I may never get the opportunity to do so again).
11. It was a coup for Fred Jackson owners when Buffalo finally traded Marshawn Lynch; shipping him to the Seahawks. Jackson figures to take over for Lynch in the Bills starting line-up and was a solid producer in that capacity in 2009. However, the Bills figure to be out of the playoff hunt early and so there’s a high probability that the team’s management will want rookie first round pick C.J. Spiller to see extended playing time before the end of the year. Jackson definitely shapes up as a sell high candidate over the next few weeks, provided of course that he performs the way he did last season.
12. Keeping with the Bills, tight end Shawn Nelson is eligible to return to the team this week after serving a four-game suspension for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy. Nelson underwent groin surgery four weeks ago so he may not be quite ready but the Bills are hopeful that the speedy tight end can help provide a spark to their anaemic passing attack. He flashed his ability at times during his rookie season in 2009 and may be ready for a bigger role in 2010.
13. With Randy Moss out of the picture, reports are circulating that the Patriots have contacted the Chargers about Vincent Jackson and the Seahawks about Deion Branch. While Jackson would make some sense in New England, it seems unlikely that Chargers general manager A.J. Smith would deal him to a team that San Diego could face in the playoffs. However, the Patriots are loaded with 2011 draft picks so they have the ability to make an offer that Smith would have a hard time turning down. As for Branch, he is on his last legs and would merely provide veteran depth and experience to the roster. Perhaps the Patriots are putting the Branch option out there to help drive down the price on Jackson, who is the player that could help propel them into the playoffs.
14. Here’s to Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz for stepping up and taking the blame for the team’s inept offensive effort during last week’s loss to the Giants. However, more than a fair share of the blame should go to quarterback Jay Cutler as well as the team’s offensive line. Cutler’s ability to read defenses has always been a question mark and never more so than against the Giants. While the league’s best quarterbacks are all adept at defeating the blitz, generally by throwing to the location that a blitzing defender has vacated, Cutler either misread several blitzes last week or refused to throw to the area the blitzing player left open.
15. Sticking with the Bears, look for the team to alter it starters along the offensive line for the third time this season. J’Marcus Webb, a rookie seventh round pick, has been subbing in for starter Kevin Shaffer at right tackle but may take over in the starting line-up this week. Guard Edwin Williams (Redskins), plucked off the waiver wire prior to the season, could start ahead of second-year player Lance Louis at right guard. In addition, left tackle Chris Williams may return to the line-up this week. Either way, it looks like the Bears will start their third offensive line combination in five games this season.
16. Looks like Tennessee wide receiver Justin Gage is battling a hamstring injury and might miss this week’s game against the Cowboys. Perhaps that will provide an opportunity either Nate Washington or second-year player Kenny Britt to finally emerge as the Titans number one wide receiver.
17. Keeping with the Titans-Cowboys matchup, here’s a little tidbit that might be useful – the Titans have won ten straight games against NFC opponents.
18. Here’s a name to keep your eye on if you are in a dynasty, PPR league – Rams wide receiver Danny Amendola. The Rams grabbed him off the Eagles practice squad last year and he played reasonably well as a rookie with 43 receptions for 326 yards and a touchdown. In the preseason, he held off rookie fourth round pick Mardy Gilyard to retain his position out of the slot. So far in 2010, he’s been targeted just under eight times per game and has 21 receptions for 208 yards – good enough to qualify as a solid backup in PPR leagues. He’s shown a willingness to go over the middle and he’s quick on underneath routes. In short, he’s a poor man’s Wes Welker but only in his second year and could grow into one of the league’s top slot receivers over the next couple of years.
19. After his second DWI charge, the Panthers finally rid themselves of wide receiver Dwayne Jarrett. Taken in the second round of the 2007, Jarrett had done little during his first three years in Carolina but was expected to be elevated to the starting line-up this season. I guess when the general manager uses a second round pick on you and is so convinced of your abilities that he releases Keyshawn Johnson, he is bound to give you more opportunities than you deserve in order to save face. Jarrett’s release is one in a long list of reasons why nobody should be surprised if both head coach John Fox and general manager Marty Hurney are looking for employment following the 2010 season.
20. Like every other fantasy enthusiast, I love reading the Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em articles out there (none more so than FFToday’s own The Shot Caller’s Report by Bill Aquaviva). However, I’m getting more than a little tired of reading that I should be starting whichever wide receivers are facing the Baltimore Ravens. As Bill points out in this week, the Ravens are giving up a miniscule 119 yards per game through the air and have given up just one passing touchdown in 2010. Entering the season, the Ravens were expected to have a poor passing defense but that clearly hasn’t been the case so it’s past time to adjust that viewpoint.
By: Dave Stringer — October 6, 2010 @ 10:23 am
With their projected top wide receiver out indefinitely and still using crutches, the Minnesota Vikings today acquired Randy Moss from the New England Patriots.
Reports indicate the Patriots will receive a third round draft pick in the 2011 draft in return. Interestingly enough, the Patriots would likely have received a compensatory third round pick if Moss signed with another team as a free agent following the season.
The acquisition of Moss reunites the mercurial receiver with the franchise that selected him in the first round of the 1998 draft. Moss burst on to the scene as a rookie, catching 69 passes for 1,313 yards and an amazing 17 touchdowns – a rookie record that no other wide receiver has come close to approaching and which may never be broken.
In his initial stint in Minnesota, Moss had an amazing six-year run, topping 1,200 yards each season, before having a disappointing year in 2004 which ultimately led to the team trading him to Oakland.
During the period from 1998 to 2003, Moss caught 525 passes for 8,375 yards and 77 touchdowns. Only Jerry Rice and Marvin Harrison have exceeded that level of production over a six-year period.
 Just what the Vikings needed. In Minnesota, Moss immediately becomes the Vikings top wide receiver and unites him with quarterback Brett Favre for the first time in their careers. As a Packer, Favre encouraged team management to pursue Moss, but a trade with the Raiders never materialized and Moss was dealt to the Patriots.
Reports have circulated that the Packers refusal to trade for Moss was the point at which Favre began contemplating life in a uniform other than gold and green.
Minnesota’s passing attack has struggled thus far in 2010, failing to match the lofty heights it achieved in 2009 when Favre passed for 4,202 yards and 33 touchdowns with only seven interceptions. With Sidney Rice (hip) on the physically unable to perform list, the Vikings deep passing attack has floundered with few big plays in 2010.
However, the acquisition of Moss provides the team with a player that excels on deep passes and jump balls. In essence, Moss is a similar player to Rice with better deep speed… although Rice is a more skilled player on crossing routes.
In New England, it appears the Patriots are once again choosing to jettison a veteran player on the downside of their career in return for a quality draft pick. The decision to trade Moss follows the pattern that was set with the trade of defensive end Richard Seymour to the Oakland in return for a first round pick.
As with the Seymour trade, it is difficult to argue that trading Moss will help the Patriots in the short term, even if the team has developed young players at the wide receiver and tight end positions over the last two years.
Fantasy Impact
If red lights aren’t going off for Sidney Rice owners, they should be. With reports indicating Rice is still walking with crutches after preseason hip surgery, the move to acquire Moss may be an indication that Rice is behind in his recovery and possibly headed for injured reserve.
With Moss on board, even if Rice comes back healthy, he now shapes up as a high-end WR3 given that Moss will almost certainly cut into his opportunities on deep passes and in the red zone.
Second-year jack-of-all-trades, Percy Harvin was a preseason favorite as a potential breakout player, in part due to Rice’s injury, but the chances of that happening now become nil.
In the short term, Harvin remains a viable option as a fantasy starter since he will continue to get opportunities in the short and intermediate passing game. Moss’ presence may actually help Harvin as teams will likely move their safeties further from the line of scrimmage to prevent Moss from getting deep.
However, Harvin becomes a WR4 with both Moss and Rice in the line-up. Don’t give up on him in dynasty formats since the trade was not conditional on Moss signing a contract extension with Minnesota.
Owners of Bernard Berrian, already fed up with his lack of production, can now safely jettison him from their rosters.
Favre is obviously a huge fantasy winner with this trade as Moss provides him with the exact type of player he loves to throw to – a tall player, with excellent deep speed and leaping ability. While Favre remains unlikely to hit the top five as a fantasy quarterback in 2010, he immediately moves from being a matchup play to being a fantasy starter that should be ranked just outside of the big six – Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Tony Romo and Matt Schaub.
Brady moves to the bottom of the aforementioned list of big six now that Moss no longer resides in the Patriots starting line-up.
As for Adrian Peterson, he remains arguably the top fantasy running back but his touchdown projection may take a slight hit as Moss is an excellent red zone option as are tight end Visanthe Shiancoe and Rice. Shiancoe also will likely lose red zone touches with Moss in the line-up.
In New England, second-year receiver Brandon Tate is the player most likely to assume Moss’ role in the team’s offense. However, he will not receive the same opportunities that Moss had in the deep passing game and the team will look to replace Moss’ production with a number of players.
Tate becomes an intriguing fantasy option but is nothing more than a WR4 or WR5 in most formats. He is more valuable as a prospect in dynasty leagues.
Slot receiver Wes Welker already gets plenty of use and it is difficult to imagine the Patriots actually increasing his role given that he is less than a year removed from ACL surgery.
That leaves the Patriots tight ends and running backs as the players most likely to increase their fantasy production with Moss no longer on the roster.
Rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez has had an excellent start to the season and has more receiving yards in his first four games than any tight end has ever had. Look for him to become an integral part of the team’s offense and to replace Moss as the team’s preferred option in the red zone.
Fellow rookie tight end Rob Gronkowski figures to get more looks as well but is unlikely to be worthy of a roster spot in fantasy leagues that are not dynasty formats.
Diminutive running back Danny Woodhead has already proven adept in the passing attack and has been effective replacing Kevin Faulk, who is out for the year. While Woodhead may get more touches, he is a low-end flex play in larger leagues only.
By: Dave Stringer — October 5, 2010 @ 8:20 pm
With a trio of smaller running backs, all with similar skill sets, the Seattle Seahawks have been in the market for a physical back since the draft.
Today, they finally found that back, acquiring Marshawn Lynch from the Buffalo Bills. ESPN reports that the Bills will receive a 2011 fourth-round pick and a conditional pick in 2012. With Buffalo having used its first-round pick in this year’s draft on Clemson running back C.J. Spiller and with Fred Jackson having three years remaining on his contract, Lynch was expendable.
In Seattle, Lynch will compete with Justin Forsett and Leon Washington for playing time. Following Lynch’s acquisition, the team released Julius Jones, who started 29 games during the 2008 and 2009 seasons.
Lynch’s departure comes as no surprise given his legal difficulties since entering the league and the tumultuous relationship he had with Bills management as well as the Buffalo fanbase.
Picked by the Bills in the first round of the 2007 draft, Lynch showed much promise during his rookie season, rushing for 1,115 yards and seven touchdowns. He followed that up with another 1,000-yard season in 2008 but fell out of favor with last year’s coaching staff, losing his starting job to Jackson by season’s end.
During his time in Buffalo, Lynch was investigated in connection with a hit and run incident, ultimately pleading guilty to a reduced traffic violation charge.
Then in February of 2009, police approached Lynch and two companions inside a vehicle that smelled of marijuana and found a gun they claimed belonged to Lynch. He pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor gun charge.
Ten months later, Lynch was accused of stealing $20 from the wife of a Buffalo police officer.
Fantasy Impact
 The most talented RB on the Seahawks roster. Look for Lynch to quickly assume the lead back role in Seattle. Both Forsett and Washington are better suited to serve as backups, coming off the bench to provide a change of pace and to play on passing downs.
While Lynch has started in Buffalo since Week 2, it was widely assumed the team had moved him into the starting lineup to showcase him for a potential trade. It is hard to argue with that considering today’s developments.
Lynch has been decent thus far in 2010, but he has hardly been dominant, and it remains to be seen whether he will fulfill the potential he displayed during his first two years in the league.
Although he has solid size at 5’11, 235 pounds, there were whispers out of Buffalo that the coaching staff wanted him to be a more physical, downhill style of runner. Nonetheless, he immediately becomes the most talented running back on the Seahawks roster. He was named to the 2008 Pro Bowl and is just 24 years of age.
Lynch shapes up as a RB3 for fantasy purposes due to the Seahawks struggles on offense and the woeful performance of their offensive line so far this season. It would be foolish to suggest that his acquisition will result in a marked improvement in the Seahawks rushing attack, which currently ranks 27th in the league.
Look for Forsett to become the team’s main backup and for Washington to concentrate on his return duties on special teams. While the biggest fantasy loser from Lynch’s acquisition has to be Jones since he’s now out of a job, Forsett’s decline in value is likely causing his fantasy owner’s some major headaches right now.
In Buffalo, it’s anybody’s guess as to whether Spiller or Jackson will assume the lead role. Spiller clearly has major upside, but the coaching staff has been reluctant to use him. Jackson was productive in 2009 and seems the odds-on favorite to assume the lead back role until Spiller is ready to take over.
Both players shape up as flex plays at best, given that Buffalo has perhaps the worst offense in the league.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 2:35 pm
(This is just a Tribute…)
We’re going back in time, folks.
Back to a simpler time, when you needed two solid running backs to win your fantasy league. Back to when there were three solid fantasy options at tight end, otherwise you were praying for your starter to score a touchdown. Back to when teams had two starting wide receivers that got most of the targets. Back to when base defenses were 4-3, not the “exotic”3-4 alignment.
That’s right, we’re heading back to 2005, when FFToday ran the FF In The Groin article every week courtesy of Mike MacGregor. Mike’s busy with other FFToday tasks at the moment but I wanted resurrect his column, if only for a week. I can’t promise you the excellence you got back then but I’ll give it my best shot.
We all know the wide receiver position is fickle. Quarterbacks can decide to look elsewhere, opposing defenses can smother top receivers with constant double teams, your starting quarterback gets injured or your team jumps out to a lead and proceeds to grind out the clock on the ground. Or maybe, just maybe, your guy is in line for a huge play but the DB yanks him to the ground before the ball gets there – sixty-yard penalty for the offense and zero fantasy points in your starting line-up. I hate when that happens. There were a lot of goose eggs and poor performances posted by wide receivers this week causing an extraordinary amount of abdominal pain in Week 4.
Groin Shot of the Week Candidates
Studs
If you faced these guys, you likely got burned…
RB LaDainian Tomlinson (138, 2) – We knew he would be solid against the Bills but we didn’t know he would run roughshod over them. LT looked like the LT of old (circa 2005 even) and the Bills were no match.
WR Terrell Owens (222, 1) – Another “Oldie But a Goodie” who played like it was 2005 all over again. T.O. found his game this week in the Bengals loss to the Browns, topping 200 yards for the first time since Week 12 of 2008 . In the process, he surpassed former Rams’ WR Isaac Bruce, to move into second place on the NFL’s career receiving yardage list, behind only the immortal Jerry Rice.
QB Shaun Hill (331, 2) – Interesting little dynamic going on in Detroit. The Lions get behind, Hill chucks it all over the field for big yardage. He chipped in 53 rushing yards on his way to a 29-FPt effort this week.
QB David Garrard (163, 2) – Garrard padded his fantasy points total on the ground also with 44 rushing yards and a touchdown. Even with the modest passing totals, he still finished with a tidy 26 FPts. Not exactly what his opponents were expecting.
TE Antonio Gates (144, 2) – Should Gates even be here? Doesn’t he put up these kind of numbers every week? At this point, it’s safe to assume that Gates is just adding Vincent Jackson’s 2009 production to his usual production and will finish the year around 2,000 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns.
WR Brandon Lloyd (115, 0) – Come on, man, how does this guy keep doing it? Lloyd has been given up for dead for several seasons now but has been reinvigorated this season in Denver. He torched the Titans and is remarkably the second leading receiver in the NFL. Wow!
WR Davone Bess (93, 1) – The Dolphins facsimile of the Patriots Wes Welker did his best impersonation this week getting plenty of looks with Brandon Marshall getting double-teamed on every play. With the bye weeks beginning, Bess was in plenty of lineups with his opponents likely banking on a typical 40-50 yard performance. No such this luck this week.
New England D/ST – It’s not often that a team has a kickoff return touchdown, a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown, an interception return for a touchdown and a blocked punt. When that happens, you can expect them to win and if you had the New England defense in your fantasy league, you likely won. Throw in a pair of sacks and three other interceptions for good measure. Maybe their defense isn’t so bad after all.
Duds
Take your picks from the multitude of bad performances at wide receiver this week. We all started these guys and got burned in the process.
RB Ray Rice (20, 0) – There it goes across the wire on Sunday at noon – “Ravens running back Ray Rice is active and will play this week against the Steelers.” Here’s what should have went across the wire – “Ravens running back Ray Rice will play against the Steelers only if every other running back on the roster gets hurt.”
WR Randy Moss (0-0, 0) – Hmmm. Three zeros from the second rated fantasy wide receiver entering the season. It’s one thing get shutdown by a stud cornerback like Darrelle Revis but has Vontae Davis of the Dolphins been elevated to Island status? If so, it’s news to me. He pitched the shutout on Moss who has yet to top 60 receiving yards in a game and is on pace to finish the year with 556 yards.
WR DeSean Jackson (3-19, 0) – No Michael Vick, no big plays for the Eagles. Jackson is a boom or bust kind of guy who usually goes boom but he relies on big plays and that wasn’t happening with Kevin Kolb checking down to LeSean McCoy on every play.
WR Mike Sims-Walker (0-0, 0) – This is a recurring theme for the Jaguars disappointing wide receiver. Hopefully, he’s not your disappointing wide receiver. If so, I don’t need to tell you this is his second game putting up three zeros. That’s just ugly for a guy who was a consensus WR2 entering the season.
QB Jay Cutler (42, 0) – Nope, those aren’t Cutler’s rushing statistics. You can thank the Bears offensive line for this one as well as Cutler’s utter refusal to get rid of the ball in the face of a withering Giants’ pass rush. Quarterbacks have thrived playing for Mike Martz because of their ability to beat the blitz but Cutler still needs some (plenty?) of work in that area. He might not be doing much work in that area this week since his eggs got scrambled.
WR Johnny Knox (1-26, 0) – Two targets for Knox and one measly reception. As noted above, you can blame the offensive line and Cutler for part of this but reality is Knox isn’t helping his fantasy owners much because he isn’t making the big plays he made as a rookie. He has yet to find the end zone in 2010.
QB Michael Vick (49, 0) – Vick left the game after the Redskins used him as their own personal human pinball machine. Those hits had to hurt and it hurt if you were expecting Vick to light up a suspect Washington secondary only to see him finish with five fantasy points.
And the winner is…
 Winner, winner, chicken dinner! Hey, if we’re going back in time, how about we hand the award this week to LaDainian Tomlinson. I told countless people in the preseason that LT looked better than his stats indicated and that he came close to breaking a number of long runs last year in San Diego. The blocking prowess of the Jets offensive line allows him to actually break loose on those plays in New York. Clearly, LT is not finished and we’re all happy to see it, except maybe Shonn Greene and his owners.
And if you want to give an award for this weeks’ Dud, here’s to you, Nate Clements. With your team stumbling badly at 0-3 and with a chance to upset the Falcons in Atlanta, you grab what should be a game-clinching interception and then try to take it to the house; only to be stripped by Roddy White when he catches you from behind. The Falcons recover and proceed to march down the field for the game winning field goal.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 1:11 am
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
Shaun Hill, Lions
If there’s a timetable for Matthew Stafford’s return, please let me know what it is. At this point, with the Lions struggling at 0-4 and having no chance to make the playoffs, it makes sense for them to sit Stafford until after their Week 7 bye. If that’s the case, Hill has another two games to start, and he currently has five touchdown passes while averaging 301 yards passing in his three starts. Not bad. You can definitely start him next week against the Rams, who are giving up massive yards through the air (though just three passing touchdowns over four games). Week 6 against the Giants is a little more iffy.
Moving Down
Alex Smith, 49ers
It’s not that Smith has been that bad, it’s just that he hasn’t been that good, and the 49ers are 0-4. Worse yet, with the Bills decision to release Trent Edwards, Smith is the new Captain Checkdown among the league’s starting quarterbacks. Running back Frank Gore is the prime beneficiary of Smith’s reluctance to chuck it downfield, with 29 receptions on the year. Smith currently ranks next to last in the league in yards per completion and fourth last in yards per attempt. With all the weapons around him and a young, talented offensive line, Smith was a sleeper candidate entering the season. But his play over the first four weeks had pretty much extinguished any hope of fantasy fortune. Move on.
 A major fantasy disappointment. Eli Manning, Giants
It was expected that Manning would retain his status as a low-end fantasy starter in 2010, but there was upside in that expectation, given the Giants increased reliance on the passing attack as well as their outstanding trio of wide receivers in Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith, and Mario Manningham. However, after three games, Manning is the 18th-ranked fantasy quarterback. Worse yet, in leagues that penalize interceptions, Manning is ranked much lower thanks to his six interceptions. He has posted starter-worthy numbers in two of four games but has failed to top 200 yards twice. In fact, remove some garbage time production against the Titans and Manning would rank as one of the major fantasy disappointments at quarterback.
Kevin Kolb, Eagles
On the positive side for Kolb owners, he may get a chance to start next week against the 49ers. On negative side, he had a perfectly mediocre performance in relief of injured starter Michael Vick this week against the Redskins, with the Eagles losing at home. Kolb checked down early and often to running back LeSean McCoy, and the end result was no production from Philadelphia’s group of talented wide receivers. Hard to imagine him winning the job back from Vick without some major improvement, and there’s little evidence to suggest that will occur.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
Michael Bush, Raiders
Last week, Bush was Moving Down when I reminded you of Darren McFadden’s history of injury—and Bush’s value in light of that history. Sure enough and right on cue, McFadden suffered a hamstring injury during the Raiders loss to the Texans. If he’s out, Bush will get an opportunity to reclaim his starting position this coming week against the Chargers. Unfortunately, five of the Raiders’ next six opponents have rushing defenses ranked in the top 10.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
MJD owners can breathe a sigh of relief after his performance during this week’s win over the Colts. After putting up modest numbers during the first three games of the season, this week Jones-Drew gained 105 yards and a touchdown on the ground as well as 16 yards and a score through the air. The touchdowns were his first of the year, and his fantasy production this week matched his total entering the game. The concern that the knee injury he suffered in the preseason might be hampering him can now be put to rest.
Ryan Torain, Redskins
I know, he was here last week and isn’t it redundant to have a guy Moving Up two weeks in a row? Not when there’s more positive news to digest. For the second week in a row, Clinton Portis was sidelined during a game so just maybe injuries are beginning an issue. This week, he said he heard his groin pop. That doesn’t sound good and likely means he’s out at least a week. Last week, he suffered a wrist injury. I could be describing my grandfather, not a starting running back in the NFL. Next up for the Redskins are the Packers (22nd ranked run defense), Colts (27th), Bears (6th), Lions (23rd) and Eagles (25th). Anyway, that’s why Torain is here and I should mention he’s averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Opportunity plus ability plus motivation equals success. That equation applies to everything including fantasy football and I should mention that it works great in interviews. “Well, Mr. Givemeajob, I am motivated and I have the ability to be successful in this position. All I need is for you to provide me with an opportunity.”
Derrick Ward, Texans
Hey, it’s a slow week for developments at running back, plus four teams were on a bye. With Arian Foster benched for the first quarter of this week’s game against the Raiders, Ward filled in and finished with ten carries for 80 yards and a touchdown. Looks like Ward (and not Steve Slaton, who is apparently relegated to the pass-receiving role) is Foster’s new handcuff.
Moving Down
Steve Slaton, Texans
See Derrick Ward above and note that Slaton’s pass-catching role isn’t much of one, with only three receptions in 2010. Slaton is roster-worthy only in larger leagues.
Laurence Maroney and Correll Buckhalter, Broncos
It has been a nerve-wracking season for Knowshon Moreno owners so far. First, he suffers a hamstring that keeps him out of much of the preseason. Then he injures his other hamstring and the Broncos trade for former Patriots first-round pick Laurence Maroney. Well, after two games, it’s clear that Maroney is either injured or completely ineffective. He had 12 carries for 24 yards in Week 3 and followed that up with an 11-carry, five-yard performance this week. As for Buckhalter, he split the workload with Moreno for much of 2009 but looks washed up thus far in 2010, as he is averaging only 1.8 yards per carry.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
 The better wide receiver? Terrell Owens, Bengals
He’s back, baby. T.O., wait, make that Robin…or is it Batman? Whatever you call him, Owens went wild in the Bengals loss to the Browns this week with a whopping 222 yards and a touchdown on ten receptions. The naysayers will contend that his touchdown came on a play where the defender fell down, but the optimists will point out that, even minus the touchdown play, Owens still had a very productive afternoon. Meanwhile, Chad Ochocinco (the real Batman) had another quiet day and has 11 receptions for 137 yards and no touchdowns since his big opening game in New England. Which begs the question, Who is the Bengals receiver to own? It looks like Owens right now. After all, Ochocinco told us in the preseason that Owens was the better receiver. Maybe we should believe him.
Derrick Mason, Ravens
Both Mason and T.J. Houshmandzadeh were disappointments entering this week’s game against the Steelers, seemingly forgotten options in the passing game with the addition of Anquan Boldin and the re-emergence of tight end Todd Heap. However, both players got it going this week, which really shouldn’t be a huge shock given that Ray Rice was an emergency option at running back and Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain both were injured. While Houshmandzadeh had the better fantasy production with three receptions for 49 yards and a touchdown, Mason was used more frequently and came through with six receptions for 80 yards on eight targets. Of the two, he’s the guy I want going forward.
Brandon Lloyd, Broncos
Quick! Who has the second most receiving yards in the NFL with 454, two behind Reggie Wayne? Well, you obviously know the answer, but do you believe it? Are you currently loading the stats page on FFToday.com to confirm it? Don’t you trust me? That’s okay; you don’t have to trust me. We are talking about Brandon Lloyd—the same Brandon Lloyd who had 495 receiving yards over the last three years combined. No, he’s not going to do it every week, but he does have double-digit fantasy points in three of four weeks, and the Broncos have been extremely productive in the passing game.
Braylon Edwards, Jets
It’s hard to endorse a player who averages fewer than five targets per game, was just arrested for DWI, and might not be his team’s best wide receiver once another returns from suspension. It’s even harder when you don’t particularly think he’s all that good. That being said, I have for you Braylon Edwards (please excuse my gagging). Hey, he has a touchdown in three straight games and 218 yards from 11 receptions on only 16 targets. It’s hard to be consistently productive with such a low number of targets, but it’s possible the Jets will begin using him more. On the other hand, he may just be benefiting from a strong Jets rushing attack that creates opportunities on play action.
Steve Johnson, Bills
This one’s for deeper leagues only. Since Ryan Fitzpatrick took over at quarterback for Trent Edwards, Johnson has been targeted six times, catching all six for 97 yards and a pair of touchdowns. On the season, he’s been targeted 13 times, catching 12 passes. So, when will Bills head coach Chan Gailey figure out that Johnson needs more opportunity? He has yet to figure out that first-round pick RB C.J. Spiller needs more touches at running back so I have my doubts.
Moving Down
Marques Colston, Saints
It seems sacrilegious to have the number one wideout from the most explosive offense in the league in 2009 Moving Down, but there’s no getting around it. Colston has been a major disappointment fantasy-wise in 2010, failing to catch a single touchdown and accumulating just 190 yards on 18 receptions. His production is down due to a confluence of events: injury problems at running back have allowed defenses to focus on the pass and take away deep plays, the team is spreading targets among four wide receivers and two tight ends, and the offense is functioning at the same level it did last season. All of this is causing Colston to get lost in the shuffle. Although it’s too early to give up on him, it now seems unlikely that he will match preseason expectations of over 1,000 receiving yards and 8-10 touchdowns.
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
Another player who is flirting with bust status is Fitzgerald, who is on pace to finish the year with 76 receptions for 832 yards and eight touchdowns. Like Colston, it’s not so much about the player as it is about his team’s current situation. Fitzgerald has struggled with Derek Anderson at quarterback, with the two not having played together in the preseason because Fitzgerald was out with an injury. Anderson was benched this week in favor of undrafted free agent Max Hall—an ominous sign for Fitzgerald. Anderson is bad, but is he worse than an undrafted rookie free agent? Apparently head coach Ken Whisenhunt thought so this week, and there are whispers out of Arizona that Hall will be the starter at some point this season.
Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars
Hi, I’m Mike Sims-Walker, the most maddeningly inconsistent wide receiver in the NFL. Although I had close to 1,000 yards receiving last year (869, to be exact—in essentially 14 games), I have two games this year with no receptions. If you start me, I will disappoint you. If you bench me, I will have a big game. So, how about helping me out by benching me more often so I can have more big games? After all, I’m no use to you in your starting lineup. Yours sincerely, Mike.
Lee Evans, Bills
Current projection: 40 receptions for 376 yards and no touchdowns. Production in 2009: 44 receptions for 612 yards and seven touchdowns. Why does anybody think this guy can produce in the Bills anemic offense? Just because they’re paying him $9 million a season doesn’t mean he can produce. If the offensive line can’t pass block, then a one-dimensional player who excels only in the deep passing game can’t do a thing. It’s not rocket science, folks.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Zach Miller, Raiders
He was a sleeper at tight end entering the season and he hasn’t disappointed, now ranking fourth amongst tight ends. Miller was moderately productive over the first two games of the season, but he has turned it on over the last two games now that Bruce Gradkowski is his quarterback. Against the Cardinals and Texans, Miller was targeted 22 times, catching 15 passes for 186 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Moving Down
John Carlson, Seahawks
One good game, one below-average game, two stinkers. Such is the John Carlson fantasy story—not just for 2010, but 2009 as well. After Carlson had a solid rookie season in 2008 with 55 receptions for 627 yards and five touchdowns, he seemed like a solid fantasy prospect for years to come. And the thing is that he’s actually a decent receiver. Unfortunately, the Seahawks offense is lacking in playmakers, they can’t consistently move the ball, and—here’s the real kicker—their offensive line is horrendous, which forces Carlson to spend time blocking. He’s not the first solid receiving tight end to suffer because of his offensive line, and he certainly won’t be the last.
Heath Miller, Steelers
It was expected that Miller would benefit early in 2010 from Ben Roethlisberger’s suspension and the departure of wide receiver Santonio Holmes. Many (yours truly included) thought the combination of no Big Ben and no Holmes would result in more opportunities for Miller as a checkdown option and red zone target. Unfortunately, it hasn’t happened, and Miller has 10 receptions for 100 yards and no touchdowns to this point. It’s not time to cut bait just yet, but if he doesn’t produce after the Steelers’ Week 5 bye, it might be time to move on.
By: Dave Stringer — October 1, 2010 @ 1:56 pm
1. If you’ve read my columns much, you know that I love to pile on Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels. This week, with the Broncos having a first down at the Colts one-yard line, McDaniels gave Laurence Maroney carries on first and second down before calling an unsuccessful pass on third down. Maroney was then stuffed on fourth down, part of his 12-carry, 24-yard performance. Meanwhile in Baltimore, Browns running back Peyton Hillis (who McDaniels traded away in order to acquire quarterback Brady Quinn) had a nice 22-carry, 144-yard, one-touchdown performance to go along with 36 yards on seven receptions. Oh, he’s also a good short-yardage back.
2. Keeping with McDaniels…During the Broncos 27-14 loss to the Colts, Denver failed to score on any of their five trips to the red zone, twice turning the ball over on fourth down. After the game, McDaniels explained that you need to score touchdowns if you want to beat the Colts. Hmmm. Five field goals equals 15 points. Add the 14 points they actually scored and you get 29 points. A field goal on each trip to the red zone would have resulted in a Broncos victory. We all know McDaniels is a bad head coach. Now we know he’s also bad at math.
3. 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree: six receptions, 81 yards, no touchdowns.
Raiders wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey: ten receptions, 140 yards, no touchdowns.
Eagles wide receiver Jeremy Maclin: 11 receptions, 147 yards, four touchdowns.
Colts wide receiver Austin Collie: 27 receptions, 359 yards, four touchdowns.
So, who was the best receiver taken in the 2009 draft?
 A buy low candidate. 4. With those stats in mind, Crabtree seems to be a great buy-low candidate at the moment. After catching a respectable 48 passes for 625 yards and two touchdowns in 11 games as a rookie, despite missing all of training camp, he has been a huge bust in 2010. Word out of training camp was that he had developed an inflated ego (which was reputed to be big enough already coming out of college) and that he was not working hard during the team’s practices. However, he is clearly a talented player, and the move to replace offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye with quarterbacks coach Mike Johnson may be the move that ignites Crabtree. Johnson is expected to use more spread formations and reduce the team’s reliance on running back Frank Gore, which should translate into a bigger role for Crabtree going forward.
5. If the Lions lose to the Packers this week, which seems very likely, head coach Jim Schwartz will have coached the Lions to two wins over their first 20 games. If that happens, Schwartz will have the worst record of any Lions head coach over their first 20 contests, eclipsing (hey, hey) Marty Mornhinweg’s 3-17 record.
6. There seems to be a fair amount of debate about whether Packers general manager Ted Thompson will make a trade for a running back, with Marshawn Lynch of the Bills often mentioned as a potential trade target. Here’s my take on this one: While Thompson has a well-known affinity for draft picks and is loath to trade them, the team’s running game since losing Ryan Grant for the season two weeks ago has been nothing short of pathetic. The only reason for the Packers not to trade for a running back is that they are convinced rookie sixth-round pick James Stark can provide a spark. But he hasn’t played since 2008, so that seems very unlikely.
7. Here’s how I would make the Packers running back situation work to my advantage in my fantasy football leagues: First off, try to get Lynch on the cheap from his owner, with the upside in mind that he could do some damage if he were the starter in Green Bay. Secondly, I would make a play for C.J. Spiller and/or Fred Jackson. Both can likely be had for a song in redraft leagues. If you can pull off both deals, you’ve gained a potential RB1 as well as a solid RB3 or flex league player.
8. Here’s a name to consider in deep leagues and dynasty formats: Stephen Williams. The Cardinals undrafted rookie wide receiver had an impressive training camp, forcing his way onto the team’s opening day roster. Now it looks like he will get a solid opportunity much sooner than expected, with injuries decimating the team’s depth chart at wide receiver. Steve Breaston will miss at least one game after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus, and Early Doucet will miss another game—more likely two—as he recovers from hernia surgery. With rookie third-round pick Andre Roberts still playing behind both Williams and fellow undrafted rookie Max Komar, Williams will likely start each of the next two games. He has ten targets over the first three weeks and could post decent numbers this week if the Cardinals fall behind early against the Chargers.
9. See you later, Trent Edwards. If you’re looking for career advice, I hear you can win in Pop Warner throwing five-yard passes all game.
10. Great move by the Jaguars to pick Edwards up. Let’s call this one desperation. David Garrard continues to disappoint and the team has only Todd Bouman behind him. It will be shocking if Jack Del Rio is back in Jacksonville next year.
11. It might be time to bump Broncos wide receiver Eddie Royal down your wide receiver rankings a few notches. With rookie Perrish Cox struggling as the team’s punt returner, Royal is expected to take over that role. Last season, the Broncos cut back his snaps on offense when he handled punt returns, and there is a solid chance that will happen again this year, particularly with Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, and rookie first-round pick Demaryius Thomas all producing at wide receiver.
12. Another player to drop in your rankings is Saints running back Pierre Thomas. Entering the season, it was expected that Thomas would have a much larger role in 2010, with Lynell Hamilton possibly earning the short-yardage role. Once Hamilton suffered a season-ending injury, it seemed Thomas was a safe bet to get major touches each week. But even with Reggie Bush also injured, head coach Sean Payton has not used Thomas as his workhorse back. Chris Ivory split the workload with Thomas in Week 3, and that development is solid evidence that Thomas will never be a true lead back in New Orleans. In 43 career games, Thomas has just three 20-carry outings.
13. The word out of St. Louis is that Laurent Robinson, currently out with a foot injury, is struggling to gain separation after tearing his ACL in Week 3 of last season. Robinson didn’t endear himself to the coaches during his time in Atlanta due to his inability to stay healthy, and he seems well on his way to the same outcome in St. Louis.
14. Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome is renowned as being one of the best at his craft in the league, a reputation he deservedly owns. However, Newsome may have outsmarted himself with the decision to sign Seahawks castoff T.J. Houshmandzadeh prior to the season, which forced the team to trade Mark Clayton to the Rams. Houshmandzadeh has not produced in his three games as a Raven, and he voiced his displeasure with his lack of use this week—hardly a surprising development given his overinflated sense of his own abilities. Houshmandzadeh has been a disappointment ever since leaving a pass-happy Bengals offense that featured Chad Ochocinco opposite him. Meanwhile, Clayton, who had his best training camp as a Raven this year, is enjoying great success in St. Louis. With 17 receptions for 228 yards and two touchdowns, he has developed into the Rams top receiver in 2010.
15. The word out of Tampa Bay is that LeGarrette Blount has earned the role of backup to starter Cadillac Williams and that Blount will assume the short-yardage duties going forward. If Kareem Huggins fails to get any work next week, you can safely drop him from your roster in redraft leagues—if you haven’t done so already.
16. For what it’s worth, Tennessee head coach Jeff Fisher stated this week that he wants to give backup running back Javon Ringer more opportunities to spell starter Chris Johnson. With Johnson playing well but with his production down slightly from a year ago, there may be some truth to this one. He is currently on pace for a 400-carry season, and it looks like Fisher doesn’t want to overload his star running back.
« Newer Posts — Older Posts »
| |
|
Powered by
WordPress |
|
|
