In trying to determine the strength of schedule,
we have to rely upon the statistics of the previous season. Granted
there are numerous changes in personnel which may upgrade or downgrade
an offense or defense but this method does offer a basis for predicting
trends for the 2001 campaign. Although it usually takes 4 - 6 games
into the season to get a positive grasp in determining strengths
and weaknesses in both areas, one needs to formulate a system that
will offer a fairly predictable indicator of performance for their
fantasy draft. When given the average number of yards allowed per
game by each team's 2001 opposition, I found it very inconclusive
to predict possible levels of performance. In rushing yardage
alone the range from the top team to the lowest team was only 23
yards per game. The differential in passing yardage was only 26
yards. From this type of analysis it is evident that little insight
can be achieved.
BASED ON AVG # OF YDS ALLOWED/GAME BY TEAM'S 2001
OPPOSITION
TOTAL OFFENSE/GAME
PASSING YDS/GAME
RUSHNG YDS/GAME
1.
San Diego - 336.7
2. New Orleans - 329.5
3. Atlanta - 329.3
4. New York Giants - 328.7
5. Philadelphia - 327.1
6. Washington - 327.0
7. Kansas City - 326.4
8. Detroit - 326.1
9. Oakland - 325.9
10. Miami - 325.6
11. Carolina - 325.4
12. Denver - 324.8
13. Buffalo - 323.9
14. Chicago - 322.8
15. San Francisco - 322.8
16. St. Louis - 322.7
17. Dallas - 321.9
18. N.Y. Jets - 319.7
19. Arizona - 315.9
20. New England - 315.6
21. Seattle - 315.5
22. Baltimore - 315.1
23. Tampa Bay - 314.1
24. Green Bay - 312.7
25. Indianapolis - 312.6
26. Tennessee - 311.5
27. Jacksonville - 309.5
28. Pittsburgh - 302.9
29. Cleveland - 302.6
30. Minnesota - 302.1
31. Cincinnati - 297.4
1. New Orleans - 218.3
2. Kansas City - 214.4
3. San Diego - 213.3
4. Miami - 213.0
5. Atlanta - 212.3
6. St. Louis - 211.5
7. Carolina - 211.5
8. Denver - 210.7
9. N.Y. Jets - 209.6
10. Oakland - 209.6
11. Chicago - 209.3
12. Buffalo - 209.0
13. Detroit - 209.0
14. Dallas - 208.0
15. Philadelphia - 207.3
16. Seattle - 207.2
17. Indianapolis - 206.8
18. Washington - 206.8
19. San Francisco - 206.3
20. New England - 205.5
21. Tampa Bay - 205.1
22. Green Bay - 204.7
23. N.Y. Giants - 203.6
24. Tennessee - 203.3
25. Arizona - 203.0
26. Baltimore - 202.6
27. Cleveland - 200.0
28. Jacksonville - 200.0
29. Minnesota - 200.0
30. Pittsburgh - 195.6
31. Cincinnati - 192.3
1.
N.Y. Giants - 125.1
2. San Diego - 123.4
3. Washington - 120.3
4. Philadelphia - 119.8
5. Detroit - 117.1
6. Atlanta - 117.0
7. San Francisco - 116.5
8. Oakland - 116.3
9. Buffalo - 114.9
10. Denver - 114.1
11. Carolina - 113.9
12. Dallas - 113.9
13. Chicago - 113.5
14. New England - 113.1
15. Arizona - 112.9
16. Miami - 112.6
17. Baltimore - 112.5
18. Kansas City - 112.0
19. St.Louis - 111.8
20. New Orleans - 111.2
21. New York Jets - 110.1
22. Jacksonville - 109.5
23. Tampa Bay - 109.0
24. Seatttle - 108.3
25. Tennessee - 108.2
26. Green Bay - 108.0
27. Pittsburgh - 107.3
28. Indianapolis - 105.8
29. Cincinnati - 105.1
30. Cleveland - 102.6
31. Minnesota - 102.1
Wanting a better indicator of expectation, I thus decided to utilize
my research on the offensive tendencies of each NFL team from the
2000 season as seen here.
U S I N G O F F
E N S I V E T E N D E N C I E S
PASSING YARDAGE RANK
RUSHNG YARDAGE RANK
1. San Diego
2. Carolina
3. Kansas City
4. Atlanta
5. St. Louis
6. Arizona
7. Philadelphia
8. New York Jets
9. San Francisco
10. Green Bay
11. Chicago
12. Washington
13. New England
14. Cleveland
15. Indianapolis
16. Seattle
17. Buffalo
18. Detroit
19. Denver
20. New York Giants
21. New Orleans
22. Jacksonville
23. Minnesota
24. Dallas
25. Baltimore
26. Oakland
27. Miami
28. Tampa Bay
29. Tennessee
30. Cincinnati
31. Pittsburgh
1. Miami
2. Oakland
3. Tennessee
4. Tampa Bay
5. New Orleans
6. Pittsburgh
7. Dallas
8. New York Giants
9. Baltimore
10. Cincinnati
11. Denver
12. Detroit
13. Buffalo
14. Jacksonville
15. Washington
16. Chicago
17. Minnesota
18. Seattle
19. New England
20. Indianapolis
21. San Francisco
22. Philadelphia
23. Atlanta
24. Kansas City
25. St. Louis
26. San Diego
27. New York Jets
28. Green Bay
29. Carolina
30. Cleveland
31. Arizona
By applying the offensive tendencies percentages of each team and
multiplying this rate with the average number of total yards allowed
by each team's opposing defenses we can achieve a more realistic
evaluation upon expectations regarding actual passing and rushing
for each team. In passing yards alone the range was 72 yards/game
while rushing yardage had a 56yards/game differential. Although
all teams want to achieve a balance attack, this condition is almost
unachievable. The trend is very apparent that defensive minded teams
focus upon the run while teams that have suspect defensive will
be more pass oriented. In analyzing the above list, one can formulate
a clearer view as to predicted performances in 2001. Using this,
I decided to further my investigation into offensive expectations
among running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. Again, I applied
the percentage of offensive involvement towards the total yardage
allowed by each team's opponents defense.
Q B
P A S S I N G Y A R D A G E...
USING STRENGTH
OF SCHEDULE
USING % OF OFFENSIVE
TENDENCY
1. New Orleans
2. Atlanta
3. Carolina
4. Detroit
5. Kansas City
6. Miami
7. Philadelphia
8. Denver
9. Oakland
10. Seattle
11. San Diego
12. New York Jets
13. Washington
14. Tampa Bay
15. Chicago
16. Buffalo
17. San Francisco
18. New England
19. St. Louis
20. Indianapolis
21. Baltimore
22. Dallas
23. New York Giants
24. Arizona
25. Green Bay
26. Cleveland
27. Minnesota
28. Tennessee
29. Jacksonville
30. Pittsburgh
31. Cincinnati
1.
San Diego
2. Carolina
3. Kansas City
4. Atlanta
5. St. Louis
6. Arizona
7. Philadelphia
8. New York Jets
9. San Francisco
10. Green Bay
11. Chicago
12. Washington
13. New England
14. Cleveland
15. Indianapolis
16. Seattle
17. Buffalo
18. Detroit
19. Denver
20. New York Giants
21. New Orleans
22. Jacksonville
23. Minnesota
24. Dallas
25. Baltimore
26. Oakland
27. Miami
28. Tampa Bay
29. Tennessee
30. Cincinnati
31. Pittsburgh
Teams
on the Rise for 2001: New Orleans, Seattle, Detroit
and Miami
Teams on the Decline for 2001:
St. Louis, San Francisco, Green Bay and Cleveland
R B
C O M B I N E D Y A R D A G E...
USING STRENGTH
OF SCHEDULE
USING % OF OFFENSIVE
TENDENCY
1. New York Giants
2. San Diego
3. Philadelphia
4. Atlanta
5. Washingon
6. Detroit
7. Carolina
8. San Francisco
9. New Orleans
10. Chicago
11. Oakland
12. St. Louis
13. Denver
14. Dallas
15. Buffalo
16. New England
17. Miami
18. New York Jets
19. Kansas City
20. Arizona
21. Seattle
22. Baltimore
23. Green Bay
24. Tennessee
25. Tampa Bay
26. Indianapolis
27. Jacksonville
28. Pittsburgh
29. Cincinnati
30. Minnesota
31. Cleveland
1. Miami
2. Oakland
3. New York Jets
4. Washington
5. New York Giants
6. Philadelphia
7. New Orleans
8. Baltimore
9. Tampa Bay
10. Tennessee
11. Green Bay
12. Dallas
13. Detroit
14. Cincinnati
15. Arizona
16. Atlanta
17. Pittsburgh
18. Seattle
19. Buffalo
20. San Francisco
21. San Diego
22. New England
23. St. Louis
24. Denver
25. Cleveland
26. Carolina
27. Kansas City
28. Indianapolis
29. Chicago
30. Jacksonville
31. Minnesota
Teams
on the Rise for 2001: Detroit, Atlanta, San Francisco,
San Diego, St. Louis and Carolina
Teams on the Decline for 2001:
Oakland, Baltimore and Denver
W R
Y A R D A G E...
USING STRENGTH
OF SCHEDULE
USING % OF OFFENSIVE
TENDENCY
1. New Orleans
2. Kansas City
3. Miami
4. Atlanta
5. Carolina
6. Detroit
7. New England
8. Chicago
9. San Diego
10. Oakland
11. Buffalo
12. Baltimore
13. St. Louis
14. Washington
15. Seattle
16. San Francisco
17. Dallas
18. New York Jets
19. Tampa Bay
20. Philadelphia
21. Indianapolis
22. Denver
23. Cleveland
24. Green Bay
25. Tennessee
26. New York Giants
27. Arizona
28. Minnesota
29. Jacksonville
30. Pittsburgh
31. Cincinnati
1.
St. Louis
2. Chicago
3. Carolina
4. San Francisco
5. Minnesota
6. Buffalo
7. Jacksonville
8. Indianapolis
9. Atlanta
10. New England
11. Detroit
12. San Diego
13. Arizona
14. Denver
15. Cleveland
16. New Orleans
17. Pittsburgh
18. Kansas City
19. Seattle
20. Dallas
21. Tampa Bay
22. New York Giants
23. Miami
24. Green Bay
25. New York Jets
26. Washington
27. Oakland
28. Cincinnati
29. Baltimore
30. Tennessee
31. Philadelphia
Teams
on the Rise in 2001: Kansas City, New Orleans,
Miami, Oakland, Washington and Baltimore
Teams on the Decline for 2001:
St. Louis, Chicago, Fan Francisco, Denver, Minnesota,
Jacksonville and Indianapolis
T E
R E C E I V I N G Y A R D A G E...
USING STRENGTH
OF SCHEDULE
USING % OF OFFENSIVE
TENDENCY
1. San Diego
2. Denver
3. Philadelphia
4. Oakland
5. Seattle
6. Kansas City
7. New York Giants
8. New York Jets
9. Washington
10. Indianapolis
11. Dallas
12. Arizona
13. Miami
14. Atlanta
15. Carolina
16. Buffalo
17. New Orleans
18. Cleveland
19. Jacksonville
20. St. Louis
21. Detroit
22. San Francisco
23. New England
24. Baltimore
25. Tennessee
26. Pittsburgh
27. Tampa Bay
28. Cincinnati
29. Green Bay
30. Chicago
31. Minnesota
1.
Kansas City
2. Philadelphia
3. San Diego
4. Denver
5. Tennessee
6. Baltimore
7. Indianapolis
8. Dallas
9. Jacksonville
10. Seattle
11. Atlanta
12. Carolina
13. Detroit
14. Green Bay
15. New England
16. Cincinnati
17. Cleveland
18. Washington
19. Chicago
20. Buffalo
21. Minnesota
22. Oakland
23. Arizona
24. Tampa Bay
25. San Francisco
26. New York Giants
27. Pittsburgh
28. New Orleans
29. New York Jets
30. St. Louis
31. Miami
Teams
on the Rise in 2001: Seattle, Oakland, Arizona,
New York Giants, New Orleans, New York Jets, St. Louis
and Miami
Teams on the Decline in 2001:
Tennessee, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Chicago, Detroit,
Green Bay and Minnesota
