Outlook: There is only one running back who has finished with a top-three fantasy ranking over the past four seasons, and that player is Adrian Peterson. While you could make the argument that there are better all-around backs in the league, there is little doubt that Peterson is the best pure runner in the NFL. In just four years, he has rushed for 5,785 yards and 52 touchdowns and caught 119 passes for another 1,170 yards and two more touchdowns. Let’s put it in perspective. Peterson averages 13.5 touchdowns per season, which would qualify as a career year for most running backs and is 3.5 more than Steven Jackson has scored over the last two years combined—and Jackson is regularly mentioned as a lower-tier RB1. Peterson’s is money in the bank and a near-certain bet to remain highly productive in 2011. The issue of having a new quarterback in the Vikings’ system drops AP down a notch, but he remains a lock to finish in the top five if he avoids the injury bug.

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Outlook: In two years, Foster has gone from being an undrafted rookie free agent to being mentioned with the league’s top running backs. He’s even considered a potential top overall selection in fantasy drafts. When rookie second-round pick Ben Tate went down with a season-ending injury last preseason, Foster was already well on his way to relegating the rookie to backup status. Foster has good size and held up well in carrying a workhorse load for the Texans last season, as his 393 touches attest to. Better yet, the Texans were happy to hand him that role, leaving main backup Derrick Ward with only 58 touches on the year. Foster chalked up 1,616 rushing yards to go along with 604 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns. You can put to rest any concerns that Tate is going to eat into Foster’s workload in a meaningful manner, or that Foster was a one-year wonder. He’s a safe top-three pick in 2011, and the case can certainly be made for taking him first overall when considering the quarterback issues in Minnesota and Tennessee.

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Outlook: What a difference a year makes. After bursting onto the fantasy scene in 2009 with 2,041 total yards and eight touchdowns, Rice was considered a bit of a disappointment last season with 1,779 total yards and six touchdowns and with his fantasy ranking slipping from fourth to 11th at running back. Rice continued to lose touches in the red zone to Willis McGahee, and while McGahee likely won’t return in 2011, there is a decent chance that Le’Ron McClain will assume his role for the coming season. Add it all up and Rice is clearly a player better suited to PPR leagues, and those that generally do not have touchdown-heavy scoring formats. Barring injury, Rice is a lock to average more than 100 total yards per game, and he could easily vault back into the top five at running back if he can find the end zone on a more regular basis. Don’t be surprised if that happens in 2011.

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Outlook: After his historic 2009 season in which he set the NFL record for most yards from scrimmage (2,509) and became just the sixth running back to rush for over 2,000 yards, there was strong sentiment that Johnson would see his production decline because of his heavy workload from the previous year. Sure enough, Johnson wasn’t as dynamic, and his production also suffered due to Tennessee’s poor quarterback play. His numbers dropped to 1,364 rushing yards and 245 receiving yards with 12 total touchdowns, bumping him down to fifth place in the fantasy running back rankings. Entering 2011, there are two concerns with taking Johnson at the top of fantasy drafts: his contract situation and the team’s passing game. CJ2K is holding out for a new contract, but that situation figures to get resolved since his salaries for the next two years are incommensurate with his production. The passing attack will be lead by former Seahawk Matt Hasselbeck, but there are major question marks at wide receiver and tight end. It’s almost a foregone conclusion that Johnson will be facing eight- and nine-man fronts on rushing downs. That means another otherworldly season is unlikely, but he is definitely a top-three fantasy running back, assuming he shows up for Week 1.

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Outlook: Despite dealing with a lingering knee injury last season and watching Rashad Jennings develop into a legitimate backup, MJD remained productive, gaining 1,323 yards on the ground to go along with 317 receiving yards and seven total touchdowns. It’s hard to complain about 14.7 fantasy points per game, but that represented a drop-off from his first full season as a starter in 2009 when he averaged 17.0 points per game. The drop-off was the result of both his missing two games with injuries and Jennings’ occasional short-yardage work. The issue for MJD in 2011 will be his recovery from offseason surgery to repair a torn meniscus. He apparently was cleared to begin running in mid-June, but he has stated that he has been running since early April. The mixed signals are a bit of a red flag. If healthy, he’s a lock to finish in the top ten at running back, so monitor his injury status and adjust accordingly.

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Outlook: After a pair of largely disappointing seasons, McFadden showed why he was the fourth pick in the 2008 draft with an outstanding 2010 campaign. Even though he missed three games with injuries, he rushed for 1,157 yards and seven touchdowns while adding 507 yards and three more scores through the air, reaching career highs in every major offensive category despite playing in the Raiders’ popgun offense. He was also remarkably consistent, hitting double-digit fantasy points in ten of 13 games. Can he do it again? Why not? New coach Hue Jackson figures to open up the offense more than his predecessor Tom Cable did, and Run-DMC produced top-five running back numbers last season despite not playing a full slate of games. Given his injury history, you can almost certainly bank on his missing a game or two and hope it won’t be during the fantasy playoffs. Either way, that makes acquiring Michael Bush as his handcuff imperative. McFadden ranks just outside of the top five at running back for 2011, and he could be a bargain if others are wary of his injury history and the fact that he’s had only one solid season out of three.

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Outlook: How good was Jamaal Charles last year? Very good, actually. Of the top 15 fantasy running backs, only BenJarvus Green-Ellis (ranked 15th) and Darren McFadden (ranked sixth) had fewer touches than Charles’s 275, and he still managed to finish the season ranked fourth at running back. By season’s end, Charles had rushed for 1,467 yards on just 230 carries and caught 45 passes for 468 yards while accumulating eight touchdowns. Over his past 24 games, he has averaged 16.8 fantasy points per game. So, he’s ridiculously productive in a timeshare, which begs the question, How productive could he be if Thomas Jones is relegated to a backup role in 2011? Actually, that’s not the question, since we know Charles would go gangbusters if given a larger share of the workload. The question is really whether head coach Todd Haley will relegate Jones to a backup role in 2011. And it’s not sounding like that’s going to happen, although Haley has said Jones’s workload will be reduced slightly. That means we can expect more of the same from Charles in 2011, and that makes him a near cinch for the top five at running back, provided he remains healthy (and he’s missed only one game in three years).

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Outlook: With the Steelers forced to open the season without Roethlisberger, Mendenhall burst out of the gate over the first four games, gaining 411 yards on the ground with four rushing touchdowns. At that point, he looked like a sure bet to establish himself as a top five fantasy running back. However, when Big Ben returned to the lineup, Mendenhall’s production took a hit. Over the last 12 games of the season, he ran for 863 yards and nine touchdowns. To sum it up: without Roethlisberger, 17.0 points per game; with him, 12.8 points per game. Without Big Ben, Mendenhall is a top five running back, but having Roethlisberger in the lineup likely lands him just outside of the top ten. There’s little reason to believe that Roethlisberger won’t stay healthy for all but a game or two in 2011. A pair of divisions that feature weak run defenses (the AFC South and NFC West) are on tap for the Steelers, so draft Mendenhall as a low-end RB1 or a high-end RB2, but he shouldn’t be considered among the league’s elite fantasy running backs.

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Outlook: McCoy proved he was the real deal in his first full year as the Eagles’ starter at running back. The 2009 second-round pick made Eagles fans forget Brian Westbrook and made his fantasy owners ecstatic, courtesy of his 1,080 rushing yards, 592 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns. That production vaulted McCoy into the top ten at running back, and he finished at eighth despite taking Week 17 off to rest for the playoffs. He was also remarkably consistent, reaching double-digit fantasy points in 12 of the 15 games he played. McCoy isn’t the fastest or most elusive running back in the league, but he possesses enough ability in both areas to be a dangerous runner. His pass-catching ability helps separate him from several of the other upper-tier running backs—as does the presence of quarterback Michael Vick. With Vick requiring a defensive spy and DeSean Jackson often double-teamed out wide, defenses can’t focus on McCoy. Because of that, he is a solid bet to duplicate his 2009 ranking with an outside chance of entering the top five, especially in PPR leagues.

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Outlook: With Thomas Jones out of the picture and LaDainian Tomlinson expected to assume the role of a third-down specialist and change-of-pace back, much was expected of Greene last year. And he flopped. Big time. Greene was drafted in some leagues as a low-end RB1 with upside, but he finished as the 37th-ranked running back in leagues with standard scoring. Removing running backs who can’t blame their poor production on injuries, Greene was likely the biggest fantasy bust at the position in 2010. But 2011 is a new year and a time for redemption. Tomlinson is a year older and Joe McKnight was so bad as a rookie last year that the Jets drafted Bilal Powell in the fourth round to challenge him. Greene figures to take over as the starter—if not on opening day, then sometime in 2011—and there is a strong possibility he will have a solid fantasy season. The team’s offensive line remains perhaps the best run-blocking unit in the league, and the offensive philosophy will be based heavily on the run. If Greene opens the season as the team’s starter, he figures to be a low-end RB1. If not, draft him as a RB2, but one with considerable upside if he can win the starting job by mid-season.

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Outlook: Forte has been in the league for three years now and fully healthy for two. In 2009, he played through knee and hamstring injuries, yet still averaged a respectable 10.3 points per game. In his two healthy seasons, he has been highly productive, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per game in 2008 and 13.5 in 2010. He ain’t sexy, but he produces, albeit not as consistently as one would hope (of his 216 fantasy points, 133 came in just six games). While Forte isn’t a top-five candidate given the lack of playmakers on the Bears offense, which limits his touchdown potential, his list of positives is long. He’s a workhorse back, having beaten back the threat of a timeshare with Chester Taylor from a year ago; he’s one of the best receiving backs in the league, averaging 57 receptions per year; and he hasn’t missed a game in three years. Better yet, he will likely present value on draft day. Chalk him up as a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 for 2011.

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Outlook: Last year Bradshaw won the training camp battle against incumbent starter Brandon Jacobs and proceeded to have a solid season for the Giants. The former seventh-round pick produced career highs in rushing yards (1,235), receiving yards (314), and touchdowns (8), finishing 13th overall at running back. The only black mark on his season was his six fumbles, which caused head coach Tom Coughlin to relegate him to backup status from Week 12 to 16. The Giants have become more of a passing team over the last two seasons, and that virtually ensures that Bradshaw will remain the starter due to Jacobs’ inability to catch the ball. Bradshaw enters 2011 as a mid-tier RB2 with upside and with a mild amount of risk due to his fumbling issues.

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