Outlook: Johnson will enter 2010 as the consensus number one ranked fantasy wide receiver courtesy of his exceptional and consistent production during 2008 and 2009. He has topped 1,500 yards and eight touchdowns in each of the last two seasons, and he should match that again in 2010. He is a big, strong, fast wide receiver with excellent hands who excels in every facet of the game. While the Texans will likely be more effective on the ground this year, Johnson will continue to get his fair share of targets and should lead the league in this category for the third year in a row (341 targets combined over the last two years). In redraft leagues, Johnson could be taken as high as fifth overall, after the consensus top four running backs are taken.

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Outlook: Moss comes off a 2009 campaign in which he had solid statistics while not necessarily being a solid citizen. In 2010, the stars may be aligned for Moss to have an excellent fantasy season, perhaps even supplanting Andre Johnson as the top fantasy wide receiver. Success = opportunity + motivation + ability and Moss has all three. Opportunity – Wes Welker may miss the early part of the season or at best be limited as he recovers from tears to his ACL and MCL. Motivation – Moss is entering a contract year and hoping for one final big payday. Ability – In the two years that Brady has been healthy, Moss has accumulated 2,757 receiving yards and 36 touchdowns. In addition, Brady will be two years removed from tearing his ACL. Expect plenty of targets, plenty of big games and plenty of production from Moss in 2010.

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Outlook: Austin was a fantasy revelation last year, bursting onto the scene with a 10-reception, 250-yard, 2-touchdown performance against the Chiefs in Week 5. He proved that was no fluke the following week against the Falcons, registering six receptions for 171 yards and two more touchdowns. Despite being barely used during the first four weeks of the season, Austin finished 2009 with 81 receptions for 1,320 yards and 11 touchdowns. While the case could be made that the presence of first-round pick Dez Bryant will cut into Austin’s production, that doesn’t exactly add up. More likely, Bryant will eat into Roy Williams’ playing time, and that should not have much impact on Austin. Any time a player busts out like Austin did, they are a bit of a risk the following season. But Austin is obviously Tony Romo’s go-to guy in a solid offense. Having vaulted himself to the top of the Cowboys wide receiver depth chart, there’s no reason why he can’t duplicate his 2009 performance this year. Consider him a top-tier WR1.

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Outlook: The thirty-one-year-old Wayne enters his tenth season as the Colts’ top receiver as he comes off another solid season in 2009. Wayne has been a remarkably consistent performer, topping 1,000 yards in each of the last six seasons and averaging 1,249 yards and almost nine touchdowns per year over that period. He was exceptional for the first nine games of 2009 but trailed off badly during the last seven (with a mere 385 yards and two touchdowns), which begs the question, Is he finally wearing down? The emergence of Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, coupled with the return of Anthony Gonzalez, figures to impact Wayne’s production in 2010. Still, he remains a top fantasy wide receiver, and another top 5 fantasy season seems likely.

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Outlook: White has averaged 85 catches, 1,245 yards, and 8 touchdowns over the last three years, making him one of the more consistent fantasy wideouts in the biz. He managed 11 touchdowns a year ago, finishing sixth among fantasy wide receivers, and I see no reason for any decline in his numbers heading into 2010. The Falcons failed to upgrade the slot receiver position this offseason, but with one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the game causing the defense concern, White should continue to see his fair share of single coverage outside the numbers.

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Outlook: Despite finishing with just 1,092 yards last season, Fitzgerald finished fourth in points among fantasy wide receivers thanks to his 13 touchdowns. The loss of Warner may not impact Fitzgerald as much as you might think. Warner very rarely threw deep balls last season, and while Leinart’s accuracy remains a question mark, it’s likely that Fitzgerald will see more deep opportunities with Leinart under center. He’s still a feared weapon in the league and the Cardinals will use him as such. Expect Fitzgerald to once again finish in the top five among fantasy wideouts.

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Outlook: Jackson was the most explosive big-play receiver in the league last year, finishing the season with nine touchdowns and an eye-popping average of 18.5 yards per reception. He topped 1,000 yards in his second season, finishing the year with 1,156. Jackson is clearly still developing at receiver, and because of that he possesses major upside. Still, banking on him to produce the same number of big plays in 2010 as he had in 2009 is risky, so his fantasy ranking should be based more on continued improvement as a receiver on short and intermediate patterns. Given his production during his first two years in the league, it seems a safe bet that improvement will occur in 2010. The trade of Donovan McNabb to the Redskins affects his value only minimally, as Kevin Kolb seems ready to emerge at quarterback. The question with Jackson is about value. If somebody in your league thinks he’s ready to emerge as a top five receiver, let them reach for Jackson. If you can get him as a bottom-tier WR1, the value is there.

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Outlook: Johnson was, without question, one of the largest fantasy busts at wide receiver in 2009 with less than 1,000 yards and only five touchdowns. Johnson had various nicks and bruises that hindered his performance, and he was unable to beat double coverage as he had in 2008. Matt Stafford figures to improve significantly in 2010, and hopefully Johnson can remain healthy for 16 games. If that happens, Johnson could return to his 2008 form of 1,331 yards and 12 touchdowns—a result more likely to happen if free agent acquisition Nate Burleson performs well. The Lions offense should be more explosive with the addition of running back Jahvid Best, and Johnson figures to benefit in the touchdown department. Coming off a poor 2009 season, Johnson could be considered a bit of a buy-low option.

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Outlook: Jennings was a fantasy disappointment in 2009. While he posted a solid 1,113 receiving yards, he managed just four touchdowns after scoring 21 over the previous two years. His lack of touchdown production was all the more shocking given the Packers solid offensive output and the strong quarterback play of Aaron Rodgers. Jennings still showcased his big play ability, averaging 16.4 yards per catch, but he simply couldn’t find the end zone on a consistent basis. Given his poor fantasy season, a number of his 2009 owners will likely look the other way on draft day, with the result being a solid number one receiver on one of the league’s top offenses potentially being undervalued. While the Packers are four deep at wide receiver and have an emerging tight end in Jermichael Finley, Jennings remains their best receiver—and Donald Driver’s age is becoming a concern given the low number of receivers that produce at his age.

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Outlook: Colston is a dynamite talent who suffers fantasy-wise from playing on a team with so many solid offensive skill-position players. On a lesser team, he would likely be in the top 10 in the league in targets, but playing for New Orleans he ranked 26th in that category. Despite the lack of targets, he has been productive when healthy, topping 1,000 yards three times in four years, only missing the mark in 2008 when he missed five games due to injury. He has also been a touchdown machine with 33 scores in only 57 career games. Colston’s solid, consistent production makes him a borderline WR1 in most leagues but leaves him with a lack of upside given the team’s other talented offensive skill-position players. It’s easy to like him, but hard to like him a lot due to his limited opportunities.

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Outlook: Marshall moves to the Dolphins and brings considerable talent (and baggage) to an offense desperate for a true number one wide receiver. He’s finished among the top-eleven fantasy wide receivers in each of the last three years while having over 100 receptions in each of those seasons. The issue is whether he can succeed in a Dolphins offense that runs the ball more than the Broncos ever did. Simply put, Chad Henne is too green to put a Dolphins receiver, even one as talented as Marshall, in the top ten. Sometimes, it’s that simple.

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Outlook: Smith salvaged his fantasy reputation with some nice games at the end of the 2009 season. In 2010, his production hinges on his ability to recover from the arm he broke playing flag football in June and on the play of quarterback Matt Moore or rookie Jimmy Clausen. No matter who is under center, the quarterback situation in Carolina adds to the risk of having Smith on your fantasy roster, as does the team’s lack of a proven threat playing opposite him. While Smith’s production declined in 2009, he is still a big play threat, as his 14.8 yards per catch average from last season proves. It’s also worth noting that Smith put up big numbers even with a very inconsistent Jake Delhomme. At this point in his career, Smith should be drafted as a WR2 with both risk and upside.

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