In dynasty leagues, it is critical to keep in touch with the value
changes that players experience. Whether real or perceived moves
in value, a savvy owner is well aware of the changing tide and is
able to capitalize on the opportunities that develop. Tracking player
value changes carefully and making roster adjustments accordingly
are key components to your team’s long-term success. Consistent
contenders in dynasty leagues don’t separate from the pack
merely by chance or simply by getting “lucky” on a few
rookie draft picks. These are the owners that put in the work and
find ways to improve their team all year round.
Below, I provide in-depth analysis on two players that have recently
experienced a real or perceived value change in dynasty formats.
Soak it in, give it some real consideration, and if it rings true
for you, potentially use this information to help improve your
No offense Miami, but Marshall's upside
is higher in the windy city.
Marshall - An argument can be made that Marshallís character
concerns are simply too significant to rely upon him as a cornerstone
for your fantasy team. I donít necessarily blame those that are
scared off by Marshallís antics, but at the same time, his upside
is so alluring that many of us are willing to be quite forgiving.
And now that he has been reunited with Jay
Cutler in Chicago, his upside appears to be even higher than
it was in Miami.
Marshall has many positives working in his favor. While he is
not a young WR, at 28 years old he still has plenty left in the
tank. And, as mentioned previously, he is now playing with a QB
that he has a great history with, albeit in a different city and
offensive system. Marshall immediately steps in as Chicagoís
number one WR and is currently the only major receiving threat
on the team, aside from Matt Forte out of the backfield. Marshall
has had five consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and during that stretch
has never dropped below 82 receptions a year. It is worth mentioning,
that even though Marshall is the clear top dog among the Chicago
receivers, Alshon Jeffery is a talented rookie that has a chance
to develop into an impact player in the long run.
Despite having a nice list running on the pros side of the ledger,
Marshall also has some cons to consider. The most obvious of said
cons is the aforementioned character issues. He gets involved
in far too much off-field trouble. Heís not in his early
20ís any longer and should be well past these issues, but
that isnít the case. His latest issue Ė New York nightclub
fun, which has not led to any charges levied against him - helped
motivate Miami to trade him away. Hopefully this last matter serves
as a wakeup call for the veteran WR.
There is another noteworthy negative to consider; namely, the
overall state of the Chicago offense. A shaky offensive line that
has had trouble protecting Cutler and an overall air attack that
has been less-than-stellar in recent years is concerning. However,
these things could change now that Mike Martz is out as OC and
Mike Tice has replaced him, but there is definitely some uncertainty
surrounding the Bears offense right now.
Overall, the move to Chicago should be a positive one for Marshallís
value, even if only because he should benefit from improved quarterback
play. Jay Cutler is definitely a better QB than Matt Moore, but
this alone doesnít propel Marshall into a higher tier at
WR, and instead only moves him up a decent notch within that same
tier. If you can find a Marshall owner that is concerned about
his off-field garbage, then you may be able to acquire him at
a price where heíll be a clear benefit to your team. Sure,
you may have to deal with an occasional Marshall-induced headache
after you trade for him, but the upside should be worth it. He
is a talented player and once again has a very good NFL QB chucking
him the rock.
On the flipside, if you own Marshall already, you may be able
to capitalize on the buzz surrounding him. There might be an owner
in your league willing to overpay for his services if they get
too locked into the numbers Marshall posted with Cutler while
in Denver. This Bears team isnít the Broncos of 4-5 years
ago. You shouldnít expect 100+ receptions and 1,250 yards
from Marshall the next couple of seasons, and if you can find
an owner that does, and is willing to pay for such, then I recommend
you take the money and run.
Tamme - When Dallas
Clark got hurt in 2010 Jacob Tamme had a meteoric rise from
obscurity in fantasy football and became one of the biggest waiver
wire additions in leagues everywhere. In weeks 8 through 17 in
2010, Tamme posted 67 receptions for 631 yards and 4 TDs. These
are big numbers from a TE in only 10 games. Now that Tamme has
Manning in Denver, many are hoping that they can recreate
the magic that they had for a good chunk of the 2010 season.
Tamme, a former fourth-round pick, is now 27 years old and has
never entered an NFL season as his teamís starter. He is
a small-ish TE and his game is more about receiving than blocking.
In Denver, heíll be competing against Joel Dreessen, Julius
Thomas and Virgil Green for snaps. Dreessen has had some nice
moments in Houston and Thomas is a former collegiate hoopster
that many feel has a chance of developing into a good all-around
TE. Currently, it is a bit unclear how the TE rotation will play
out in Denver.
With all of that said, it seems like a reasonable assumption
to pencil Tamme in as the starter right now as well as the most
fantasy-relevant TE on the team. Things are still very fluid and
could change quickly, but the primary indicators are pointing
toward Tamme at the moment. And seemingly any starting TE in a
Peyton Manning led offense can post some very strong numbers.
Out of all of the WRs and TEs that could see significant targets
for the Broncos, Tamme and Stokley are the only two with extensive
experience playing with Manning. This is critical because Manning
is a tactician and expects similar from his receivers. It isnít
always easy for newbies to get on the same page with the veteran
QB, so it isnít far-fetched to think he could lean on a
trusted target such as Tamme a good amount. They developed a good
on-field rapport back in 2010 and I look for this connection to
follow them to Denver.
My big caution to those looking at Tamme as a TE option is that
the total receiving pie for Denver in 2012 may not be quite as
large as the receiving pie was in Indianapolis in 2009 or 2010,
meaning the slice for the TEs might be proportionally smaller
as well. Expecting Tamme to pull in something near 6 receptions
most weeks in 2012, just because it was common for him to do such
back in 2010 with Manning throwing him the ball, is unrealistic.
You need temper your expectations.
Assuming he secures the starting gig, Tamme easily could edge
up to high-end TE2 status. He has some nice upside playing with
Manning and right now seems to be the ideal time to buy him, particularly
if he can be reeled in at the price of a low-end TE2 (which is
typically dirt cheap). After he posts one nice game for Denver,
even if itís in the preseason, it is likely that his asking
price will go up considerably. Admittedly, Tamme isnít risk-free,
as Dreessen and Thomas are lurking in the shadows.
If you currently own Tamme, the primary situation where it may
make sense to send him packing is if you can find a TE-desperate
team that is willing to pay something close to a TE1 price for
him in the hopes that theyíre landing the 2010 version of
the former Colt. In order to have a realistic chance of pulling
this off, youíre probably going to have to wait to make
your big move until after the aforementioned ďnice gameĒ
early in the regular season or sometime during the preseason.
Patience and timing will be required.