The Colts replaced Reggie Wayne with Andre
Johnson giving Luck yet another weapon on offense.
After being told his role in 2015 would be reduced, Andre Johnson
requested to be traded or released from the team he’d spent
his entire NFL career with. The Houston Texans granted his wish,
releasing the veteran wide receiver, ending his 12-year tenure with
the team. Just two days into free agency, Johnson signed with the
Indianapolis Colts and will get a chance to play with arguably the
best young quarterback in the NFL (Andrew Luck) and the opportunity
to play against his former team twice in the regular season.
Johnson was the No.1 wide receiver and target in Houston but may
see his role change as the Colts have a plethora of targets on offense.
Johnson joins a wide receiving corps that’s loaded with talent led
by T.Y.
Hilton. The former Texan will presumably slide into the No.2
spot, behind Hilton but in front of fantasy football favorite Donte
Moncrief and newly signed CFL star Duron
Carter. Johnson will fill the void left by Reggie
Wayne as the veteran leader of the receiving group and gives
Luck another reliable set of hands and target in the redzone. Many
in the fantasy football world are concerned over Johnson’s fantasy
outlook, but I wouldn’t jump the gun just yet.
Fantasy Impact
Along with injuries, the emergence of Hilton during the 2012 season
took a bite out of Reggie Wayne’s career. His statistics regressed
leading to a disappointing 2014 season that included 12.2 yards
per catch (matching his career low), 116 targets (third lowest of
his career), and 64 receptions (a career low). Wayne was coming
into his age-36 season and dealt with a torn triceps for most of
the year, so both of those factors have to be taken into account.
Are these the kind of numbers we should expect Johnson to produce
in the Colts offense? Johnson isn’t exactly a spring chicken (34)
and 2015 will be his 14th year in the league but he has played in
47 of 48 games the last three seasons and still had 85 receptions
in 2014.
The Colts had the fifth-highest pass-to-run ratio in 2014 (61%-39%)
and that is not expected to change, as their offensive philosophy
will continue to be pass-heavy under offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton.
The Texans on the other hand, had the second-lowest pass-to-run
ratio (47% - 53%) so opportunities should increase as he goes from
a team that averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game to a team that
attempted 41.3 passes a game. There are many mouths to be feed in
Indianapolis including the two tight ends, Dwayne
Allen and Coby
Fleener but even if Johnson experiences a decrease in targets,
its reasonable to assume his efficiency and yards per catch should
increase given the upgrade in talent at the quarterback position
and the overall stability of the offense. Leaving the revolving
door at quarterback in Houston should be a welcome change and Johnson
should have no trouble fitting into the Colts offense from day one.
His projected stat line in 2015 will be a modest one but he does
have a high floor and perhaps a rising ceiling as well. 80 receptions,
1040 yards using his career average of 13.4 yards per catch, and
5 touchdowns, would give him 144 fantasy points in standard leagues
(19th in 2014) and 224 points in PPR leagues (17th in 2014) making
him a middle-tier WR2 in both scoring formats. Ideally you would
like to get him at a bargain as your WR3.
