As we begin the countdown to the NFL Draft starting on April 30,
I will spend anywhere from 4-8 hours to break down the strengths
and weaknesses of at least the top 15 offensive skill-position prospects
available in this draft.
Gordon has the elusiveness and speed of
a home-run threat. Expect to hear his name called on Day 1.
Background (College
Stats)
Gordon served as Wisconsin’s bell-cow back for only one
year, which proved to be enough for him to finish with the second-best
single-season rushing total in FBS history (2,587 yards) –
41 fewer than Barry Sanders’ all-time record. The 2014 Doak
Walker Award winner averaged 184.8 rushing yards – the most
since LaDainian Tomlinson averaged 196.2 in 2000 – and even
broke the legendary TCU back’s single-game rushing record
of 408 yards in only three quarters against Nebraska on Nov. 15,
but saw that mark fall the following week when Oklahoma freshman
Samaje Perine ripped Kansas for 427. Nevertheless, Gordon is one
of only 17 players in FBS history to rush for 2,000 yards in a
season and set the FBS record for the fewest carries to reach
that mark (241). He also owns the FBS record for career rushing
average at 7.79 YPC.
NFL Player Comp(s): A more rocked-up
but slightly less explosive Jamaal Charles
Best Scheme Fit: Could make a decent
living behind a man-blocking line, but his narrow base might give
coaches pause when it comes to running him in between the tackles
consistently. His vision, elusiveness at the second level, acceleration
and ability to do damage on the perimeter of the defense make
him a better fit for a team that utilizes more outside zone-based
runs.
Strengths
Serious big-play threat – 40 runs of 15 yards
or more in 2014 alone and 15 career runs over 50 yards –
that doesn’t try to “force it”.
Relishes the opportunity to get outside the tackles;
accumulated a significant amount of yardage on counter plays,
allowing him to flash his initial burst, which is as good –
if not better – than any back in the draft.
Has a bit more thump than given credit for; fearless
runner that will churn out extra yards on occasion and builds
up enough steam to consistently fall forward after contact despite
less-than-ideal lower-body power.
Keeps feet moving in the hole and maintains his balance;
operates well in tight spaces and trusts his eyes.
Displays a knack of knowing when to cut back; rarely
gets ahead of himself and sets up second-level defenders, which
are perhaps the main reasons he breaks so many long runs.
Durable as well as mentally and physically tough; maintains
first-quarter explosiveness even as defenders began to wear
down in second half.
Weaknesses
Is not afraid to run in between the tackles, but
currently lacks the leg drive to move the pile and is not a
“chain mover”’; stuffed” (runs resulting
in no yards or a loss) on 19.2 percent of his carries and was
caught from behind on a number of his long runs.
Doesn’t always keep ball high-and-tight –
committed seven of his 12 career fumbles in 2014, including
six over his final five games.
Does not anchor in pass protection and allows himself
to get driven back into the quarterback (How much time did Wisconsin
spend on developing Gordon in this area when it averaged only
23 passes per game?).
Ability to serve as anything more than a dump-off option
in the passing game is also a question mark at this point given
the Badgers’ limited passing offense.
While not a major issue when compared to previously-drafted
“big-play backs”, he bounces runs a bit more often
than he should.
Bottom Line
To a degree, Gordon could a bit of a victim of his own success
and the inability of Wisconsin to surround him with much in the
way of passing game talent – at quarterback and receiver
– if fans and fantasy owners expect instant success from
him. Because he was so productive throughout his career as a runner,
Wisconsin rarely ever needed the 2014 Heisman Trophy finalist
in the passing game, which helps to explain his 22 career receptions
and current shortcomings in pass protection. To his credit, Gordon
made it a priority to improve in the passing game in 2014 and,
for the most part, he succeeded. The strides he made as a receiver
and blocker from his sophomore to junior seasons suggest he is
more than willing to do what it takes to eventually become an
accomplished three-down back. Ideally, Gordon will add more lower-body
power in order to run in between the tackles with more confidence,
but should not be confused with “satellite backs”
such as a young Reggie Bush or C.J. Spiller either, even if he
does bounce the occasional run to the outside when he shouldn’t.
I’d feel more comfortable with Gordon leading a committee
backfield initially, with the understanding he may be less than
a year away from becoming a feature back. His flaws – perhaps
with the exception of his fumbling woes – should be correctable
assuming he gets to work with a solid position coach, but are
concerning enough that he shouldn’t be considered a lock
as a first-round prospect.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and appeared in
USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in 2010 and
2011. He is also the host of USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff
fantasy football internet chat every Sunday. Doug regularly appears
as a fantasy football analyst on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy
Drive” and for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C).
He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
E-mail Doug or follow
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