OK, the boring stuff. Bye season continues with Dallas, Seattle,
Buffalo and Cincinnati taking a seat. Thatís a lot of firepower
sidelined. Weather should not be a factor in Week 6.
With CAR, SEA and MIN still on the schedule,
the Matt Ryan regression looks like it's here to stay.
"In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary
act.” - George Orwellt
1) Matt Ryan has underperformed over
his first four games and unfortunately its likely to continue.
Ryan is ranked 18th among quarterbacks, scoring just 19.5 FPts/G,
after finishing third last season at 27.5 per game. Heís
struggled against four opponents who rank in the top half of the
league in fantasy points allowed and because the Falcons earned
a division title last season they are faced with a tougher schedule
in 2017. Still on the docket this season are: Miami, Carolina,
Seattle and Minnesota, all top-10 defenses.
2) If you plot Kareem Huntís production
over the first five games you will see itís time to sell high
to maximize your return.
If itís not a keeper league - sell. His production graph
looks like a ski slope. Heís getting more and more touches
and producing less and less. Trade him while other fantasy owners
still remember the game against New England.
3) Leonard Fournette is a fantasy
stud only as long as defensive coordinators allow him to be one.
Fournette is a volume producer and currently seeing 24.4 touches
per game including almost 22 touches on the ground. Given the
state of Blake Bortlesí ďgame,Ē defensive coordinators
should be able to shut the running back down by overloading the
box and letting Bortles try and beat them. Since even the Jacksonville
head coach doesnít want to throw the ball, it should be
game over for Fournetteís fantasy value unless Bortles drastically
4) Unless you believe the change to
Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback is Chicagoís solution to winning,
Jordan Howardís fantasy value is going to be severely limited.
In 20 games over two seasons, Howard has averaged 24.37 FPts/G
in four Bearsí wins and 9.66
in 16 Chicago losses. Thatís too great a variation to be
5) Perhaps Marshawn Lynch should have
True. Other than opening day, Lynch has seen a dozen or less
carries. And heís done little with them. After averaging
4.2 ypc in Tennessee, heís averaging 3.02 ypc over the next
four games. Meanwhile, backup Jalen Richard is averaging 5.9 ypc
and saw nine rushing attempts last weekend. Lynch canít
make up the loss of touches in the passing games having caught
just one ball in four of five games.
ďA lie is like a cat: you need to stop it before it
gets out the door or itís really hard to catch.Ē Ė
Charles M. Blowill
1) Party time is over for Rams quarterback
Not necessarily. Yes, heíll probably struggle in Week 6
against Jacksonville, but then he has three favorable games against
Arizona, New York Giants and Houston. Certainly, you must sit
him this Sunday, but heís still a viable low-end option
during these bye weeks.
2) Ed Dickson has magically become
a fantasy stud overnight.
Not overnight, but he is in the right place at the right time.
When given an opportunity in 2011 while playing for Baltimore,
Dickson caught 54 balls for 528 yards and five scores. Cam Newton
has always used his tight end and with Greg Olsen sidelined for
a while, Dickson is the guy to take over. No, he will probably
never catch 175 yards worth of passes in a game again, but he
is a viable low-end fantasy starter Ö at least until Olsen
returns from IR around Week 9.
3) Adrian Peterson is a viable option
now that heís been installed as the Cardinals starting tailback.
False. Unless AP can make theArizona offensive linemen in front
of him a lot better, heís going to struggle like the rest
of the Cardinalsí running backs. To date, Arizona is averaging
2.6 ypc on 100 attempts. Thatís enough to tell me it isnít
the backs at fault, but a line that canít open holes. Peterson
was averaging 3.0 ypc in 27 attempts for the Saints. While the
2017 version of AP is better than the 2017 version of Chris Johnson,
I donít believe Peterson will return to anything close to
Pro Bowl form.
4) Ben Roethlisberger is still a
Sorry, no. During the summer there were numerous stories about
the home/road splits, but this season even Roethlisbergerís
work in Heinz Field is mediocre. Heís yet to produce 21
fantasy points in any game this season Ė at home or on the
road. With games at KC and home against No. 5 Cincinnati, Ben
should be riding your bench for the immediate future.
5) Frank Gore is still a viable low-end
Heís about as viable as Latavius Murray. Both aging veterans
are about to find out what a youth movement looks like. Actually,
Murray found out this April when the Vikings drafted Dalvin Cook
and the rookie ran circles around him. Gore has been the starter
for the first five games, but has produced just 3.2 ypc on 75
rushes. Youngster Marlon Mack showed last week why Goreís
retirement party planners should be hard at work. The 21-year-old
Mack, from South Florida, ran for 91 yards and a score last weekend
and pumped life into the Colts offense. He can catch the ball
too. Is he still available in your league?
Steve Schwarz served as the fantasy sports editor of The Sports Network and is the 2014 FSWA Football Writer of the Year.