Two weeks in the books and confusion reigns
supreme. Who would believe that Miami, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay
would still be undefeated? Or that Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeSean Jackson
and Will Dissly would be leading their respective positions? There
is one constant, however … the Browns still haven’t
won a football game.
Is Fitz really a QB1? We have a long history
of Ryan Fitzpatrick being an average quarterback.
“The truth … It is a beautiful and terrible thing,
and should therefore be treated with great caution.” - J.K.
Rowling, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, Dumbledore
1) Fitzpatrick, the Bucs’ journeyman
quarterback, has played 14 years, for seven teams and 135 games
and posted two of his three best all-time performances to start
the 2018 season.
True. However, he’s thrown three-or-more touchdowns in just 18-of-121
career starts (14.8%). Here’s where that rate slots among some
current quarterbacks for their careers. Sorry, I’m still not a
long-term believer, though he’ll face a vulnerable Pittsburgh
defense in Week 3 and they were destroyed by Patrick
Mahomes last Sunday. By the way, Mahomes is 2-for-3 (66.7%).
3TDs or more
2) Thank goodness for “garbage time.”
We saw two perfect examples of garbage-time production on Sunday
and Monday nights. Eli Manning’s total was in the dumpster
until a late drive and score helped him total 279 yards and one
score (18.4 points). Likewise, Russell Wilson managed two fourth-quarter
touchdowns, including a stat-padding score with 14 seconds remaining.
That final series also made tight end Will Dissly’s owners
very happy as he produced 9.6 of his 10.2 fantasy points on the
3) Stay as far away from the Buffalo offense
Unfortunately true. The lack of offense is across the board,
both rushing and receiving. Whether LeSean McCoy plays with his
bad ribs or not, you shouldn’t start anyone here. No Bills
running back, wide receiver, tight end or kicker is averaging
more than 5.5 FPts/G. Next up for Buffalo is Minnesota, so it
doesn’t get any easier.
4) Trade DeSean Jackson while his fantasy
value is at its zenith.
He’s the absolute definition of “buy low, sell high.”
Jackson (Yahoo Preseason ADP 203) is averaging 22.8 FPts/G through
the first two games, but he hasn’t averaged double-digit
points for a season since 2014. He has already equaled his touchdown
total for 2017. Jackson will share targets with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard and that means a likely return to the mean.
5) In a comparison of Broncos wire receivers,
Emmanuel Sanders is a better option than Demaryius Thomas.
Thomas is still seeing more targets (21), but Sanders (14-231-1)
is doing more with his opportunities. Thomas just seems off his
game. Sanders is more elusive and more likely to throw in the
long touchdown strike. Since the start of 2017, Thomas has caught
just one ball for more than 30 yards or more, Sanders has done
it six times.
“A storyteller makes up things to help other people; a liar
makes up things to help himself.”
- Daniel Wallace
1) Blake Bortles’ game against New England is an indication of
False. This is a “one-off” game. There were a number
of reasons for his high totals (29-of-45 for 377 yards and 4 TDs).
No Leonard Fournette (hamstring) and facing a team they knew could
score points required the Jaguars to keep their foot on the gas
pedal, thus his 45 passing attempts. He’s thrown 45 or more
passes just 11 times in his career. The Jaguars defense will probably
dominate the next few games, so Bortles arm won’t be needed
until Week 5 (at Kansas City).
2) Being a starting running back is a requirement
to being fantasy-worthy.
3) Jimmy Garoppolo has proven he’s fantasy-worthy.
Sorry, no. Although he’s proving to be a winning quarterback
(8-1 as a starter), he’s also demonstrated an inability
to thrown a lot of touchdown passes. Remember that box from above
with the percentage of games with three touchdown passes or more?
Since joining the 49ers, Garoppolo hasn’t accomplished that
feat. He’s averaging 1.29 touchdowns per game. He’s
thrown three touchdown passes once in his career – for New
England in 2016. He’s averaging 20.6 FPts/G as a starter
in San Francisco which would have ranked him 14th last season.
He’s currently ranked 25th among quarterbacks.
4) We should worry because the top wide
receiver on draft day, Antonio Brown, is ranked just 24th among
wideouts (11.0 FPts/G).
False. Although he’s only caught 18-of-33 targets (54.5%),
the target total is No. 1 in the league. He and Ben Roethlisberger
will eventually get it together. Brown owns a career 65.9 % catch
percentage. Of course, you will have to pay attention to the off-the-field
issues with Brown and the Steelers (there is a report he didn’t
show up for meetings on Monday).
5) Julio Jones is an elite fantasy wide
Can you really be elite if you can’t consistently find
the end zone? The last time a receiver finished top-five (total
fantasy points in a season) without scoring at least six times
was all the way back in 2012 when Calvin Johnson led all wideouts
with 226.4 fantasy points. Of course, Johnson had to post almost
2,000 yards to do it (1,964). The average touchdown total for
a top-five receiver over the past five years is 11.25 touchdowns.
Jones has only grabbed four touchdown passes in his last 23 games
which means he’s going to have to average around 115 ypg
for 16 games to be elite. That’s a tall order.
Steve Schwarz served as the fantasy sports editor of The Sports Network and is the 2014 FSWA Football Writer of the Year.