Outlook: A year ago, Nix was an unproven commodity. A first-round pick many felt had been a significant reach when the Broncos called his name with the 12th overall selection. Now, he's locked in as QB1 after finishing third in AP Offensive Rookie of the Year voting behind Washington's Jayden Daniels and Las Vegas' Brock Bowers -- and well ahead of fellow QBs Drake Maye (Patriots) and Caleb Williams (Bears), who were both taken ahead of him.

Looking back on 2024, it's easy to track Nix's development. Early on, he leaned on his athleticism, which is borne out in the stats. Through seven games, the then-rookie averaged 178 yards passing with 5 TDs and 5 INTs, and he added 257 yards and 3 TDs on the ground. Things changed in Week 8. In a 14-point win over Carolina, Nix passed for 284 yards with 3 TDs and no INTs with minimal running (four carries, four yards). That was the formula the rest of the way with Nix averaging 253 yards through the air with 24 TDs and 7 INTs over the final 10 games. He ran for just 173 yards and 1 TD during that stretch.

It's that distribution of numbers that clouds his 2025 outlook to a degree. His development as a passer, coupled with some improvements at the skill positions, is encouraging, but there's a reason the top of the fantasy quarterback rankings is occupied by dual threats. We know Nix can run, but will he? If you look at his final 10 games and project over a full season, it only amounts to 294 yards and 2 TDs, and those numbers aren't moving the needle. Even with some uncertainty, Nix is a viable fantasy starter, and he belongs in the discussion once the top six or seven QBs are off the board.

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Outlook: There might not be much flash to his game, but Goff has been at the helm of one of the best offenses in the league for two-straight years. He's been a consistent top-10 fantasy option despite offering nothing as a runner and is blessed with not only an elite offensive line, but some of the best skill position players in the league. Detroit bombed people last season enroute to a 15-2 record, before the wheels fell off in the divisional playoff. It was there Goff showed some of the warts and limitations that often make him an underrated option.

Despite being a consistent winner and producer, Goff and this entire offense faces a massive question mark in 2025, as they get used to a different offensive leader, with mastermind Ben Johnson leaving to run the Bears. Goff and Johnson had a symbiotic relationship over the past few seasons. They combined to help Detroit's offense lead the NFL in points-per-game, yards-per-play, and touchdowns-per-game. Goff was 2nd in passing yards-per-game, despite being only 13th in pass attempts-per-game. The offense was efficient, but could also strike quickly. But losing Johnson is massive. John Morton, who has coached with Dan Campbell previously, and worked under Johnson in Detroit in 2022 will likely keep a majority of the scheme intact because it was literally built for Goff, but the in-game decision making and voice in the headset will be different. Look for Goff and the Lions to take a step back offensively, at least early, as they adjust to new leadership and a brutal schedule. A third-straight top ten finish is going to be tough to do, as he doesn't have the rushing upside to make up for any dips in passing production.

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Outlook: Look at pretty much any QB ranking and you'll see Herbert's name near the top, perhaps a notch below the elite players at the position (Mahomes, Allen, Jackson). In the realm of fantasy football, however, Herbert has been largely a disappointment the past three seasons. After throwing for 5,014 yards and 38 TDs in 2021 as a second-year player, the Oregon product has averaged 3,914 yards and 23 TDs since. His running ticked up a bit last year, but after rushing for eight scores in his first two years he's managed just five in the last three.

Is this the year we see a more dynamic version of LA's passing game? Maybe. Ladd McConkey looks like the real deal, and Herbert closed last season strong with nine TD passes in his final four games, but it's still far from certain. The team reunited with Mike Williams only to watch the veteran unexpectedly retire, leaving a group of unproven wideouts alongside McConkey. Tight end is also unimposing with journeymen Will Dissly and Tyler Conklin set to fill the top two roles. Despite a lack of household names, one thing Herbert has proven is he'll throw to anyone, and his decision making is first rate.

Los Angeles has invested heavily in protecting Herbert, and their running game should be more dynamic in Year 2 under head coach Jim Harbaugh, which figures to open things up for the passing attack. The talent is there for Herbert to produce like a midrange QB1 or higher, but there are too many unknowns to draft him in such a lofty spot. Pencil Herbert in as a borderline QB1/QB2 and target him after the top names are off the board. Just be sure to select a capable alternative to pair with him.

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Outlook: McCarthy, the 2nd-year signal caller from Michigan, gets the job to himself this season as the Vikings unquestioned starter. Missing his rookie year due to a meniscus tear in the preseason, McCarthy watched Sam Darnold have a career year in this offense, and now gets his own chance to give Minnesota a shot at the title. Fitted with a Super Bowl roster of superstars and game breakers, McCarthy needs to play within the offense and use his athleticism and big arm to keep defenses honest. While he got plenty of "mental reps" last year, it's the decision making that's going to make or break this season. While he won a ton at Michigan, he was never asked to carry the load, or operate a complex passing offense. He's got all the physical gifts and intangibles you could ask for, but what gives him fantasy relevance are his coach, and passing game weapons. Like Darold last year, there is a world where McCarthy is efficient, and does enough with his legs to come into fantasy relevance at some point in the year. With 25+ touchdown potential, and elite receivers, McCarthy is one of my favorite upside QB2s.

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Outlook: Drake Maye burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2024, and while his QB22 finish (17.5 points per game) doesn't scream elite, the context is everything. In his 10 full starts, he averaged 24.1 points -- good for QB7 pace over a full season. The standout? His legs. Maye racked up around 400 rushing yards, landing in the top 10 among QBs despite missing time, and his arm held up with a shaky supporting cast.

Heading into 2025, the Patriots handed him a revamped offense: a beefed-up O-line with first-round tackle Will Campbell, plus Stefon Diggs and rookie Kyle Williams as new toys. Josh McDaniels' scheme loves to stretch the field, and Maye's got the cannon to match. It's completely reasonable to assume that Maye could approach 4000 passing yards, 25 TDs, and a boosted 550-plus rushing yards with a couple of scores on the ground. That's mid-range QB1 territory with top-five upside if Diggs clicks early. The only hiccup might be syncing with a post-ACL Diggs, but this offense is miles better than last year's mess. He's a fun, high-upside option who may also give you enough floor to make him an intriguing QB1 this season.

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Outlook: In 2023, Stroud had one of the best ever rookie seasons at quarterback. That created high expectations heading into his sophomore season, and he was drafted as a consensus QB1. The addition of WR Stefon Diggs to play alongside breakout receiver Nico Collins added to the hopefulness of a stellar season from Stroud. When the dust settled, Stroud fell short of those expectations, thanks in no small part to Diggs, Collins, and WR Tank Dell all missing multiple games. Stroud played in two more games in 2024 than he did in 2023 but finished last season with fewer passing yards, fewer passing TDs, and more interceptions than his rookie season. Ouch.

Those struggles in 2024 have Stroud slated as a low-end QB2 today. He reportedly had soreness in his throwing shoulder during offseason workouts but is said to be fine as training camp approaches. I actually like the price of Stroud this draft season. If the pieces around him can stay upright and the offensive line doesn't completely fall flat, Stroud can be a solid QB2 with starting potential some weeks. Draft him with confidence as your high-end QB2.

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Outlook: I remember viewing Trevor Lawrence as a fantasy target as early as his sophomore year at Clemson. The hype surrounding him as the next "It" quarterback was overwhelming, and I bought into it. Fast forward six years and we see a QB who has fallen woefully short of expectations. But I hear the excuses already in 2025 for when - not if - Lawrence continues his slightly-above-average career trajectory: "Let's be patient with Trevor Lawrence. He's learning a new system with a new rookie head coach." Blah, blah, blah.

I would encourage you to temper whatever expectations you may have about a Lawrence breakout campaign. He is a middle-of-the-road fantasy quarterback - nothing more, nothing less. The biggest evidence of that is comparing his standout performances to Brock Purdy's. Purdy has 40 career games under his belt, and he's thrown more than 2 TDs in nine of those games. Lawrence has played in 60 games but has only six such games. Remember, that's a comparison between a player drafted first overall and a player drafted dead last.

Bottom line: Lawrence has been an overhyped, underperforming QB in fantasy and real life. Proceed with extreme caution going into this year's fantasy draft season.

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Outlook: I think it's safe to say at this point in Bryce Young's career that he has fallen short of expectations as the No.1 overall draft pick in 2023. We're all familiar with his rookie season -- a season where, in a seven-game stretch between Weeks 12-18, he tossed only two TDs. His play spiraled downward in the first few weeks of 2024, leading to his three-game benching. He assumed the starting position in Week 7 and proceeded to have the best stretch of his short career. He tossed at least one TD in every game the remainder of the season while also limiting his turnovers.

Young is now solidified as the starter heading into 2025, which makes him worthy of a late-round flyer. His solid finish last season was a great way to remind fantasy managers of his potential. Much of Young's continued development will depend on how fast he connects with rookie wideout Tetairoa McMillian, as well as the continued development of the ascending offensive line. Young would best serve as a QB2 with some potential of a top-12 finish any given week.

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Outlook: After a breakout 2023 season, Love slogged through an injury plagued 2024. Early season knee and groin injuries, combined with the decimation of his receiver corps left the 5th year quarterback a barely usable option during the 2nd half of the fantasy season. 2025 gives Love and this Green Bay offense a chance to reload and reset. All of the skill position starters return, and the Packers even spent a 1st round pick on a receiver in Notre Dame's Matthew Golden! By adding the speedster to an already crowded receiver room, Love has a bevy of options to target at all levels, and hopefully won't be plagued by a league-leading 23 dropped passes again.

Health, a stable of air weapons and a solid pass blocking line are checks in the positive column, but the presence of Josh Jacobs, and a brutal divisional schedule should temper expectations. The Pack were one of four teams in the NFL to run the ball more than they passed it last season, and as long as Jacobs remains healthy, this should be the case again in 2025. It's incredibly difficult to reach QB1 status with such low volume (30th in team pass attempts), especially since Love offers very little as a runner and passing touchdowns can be fluky. But even with the negatives, Love is a solid option for teams fading the position until late in the draft. Should something happen to Jacobs, Green Bay has the coaching and receivers to make Love an incredible value.

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Outlook: Michael Penix Jr. is set as Atlanta's starter heading into the 2025 season after replacing a sporadic and ineffective Kirk Cousins late in 2024. Penix's numbers from those three starts last season aren't eye-popping -- 3 TDs and 3 INTs with a 58 percent completion percentage. But the signal-caller on a potentially lethal offense is always an enticing option, regardless of his recent production. Apparently, his numbers from 2024 haven't endeared him to fantasy managers because he's being viewed as a low-end QB2 heading into draft season.

While I think he's being valued correctly, I do think the return on investment could be substantial by year's end. First, there is continuity on the offensive side of the ball. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson returns, along with a scheme that helped the Falcons finish with the 5th most passing yards per game last season (239 yards). Second, Penix has a solid collection of complementary pieces to throw to. And third, he's a young, hungry player with something to prove. For those reasons, Penix could outplay his draft position and reward his managers. If you're waiting to fill your QB2 position, you could do a lot worse than Penix.

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Outlook: Heisman Trophy winner and first overall selection Cam Ward enters his rookie season as one of those franchise saviors that many first overall selections are viewed as. Ward overtakes the starting spot after Will Levis was given the opportunity last season and proceeded to have a painfully erratic and overall dreadful 2024 campaign. Ward's physical tools, his experienced offensive weapons, and his documented history of success provide the groundwork for a productive season.

Head coach Brian Callahan and offensive coordinator Nick Holz are both entering their second season in their respective positions. But we can safely assume that Callahan will have his fingerprints all over Ward's development. Remember, Callahan groomed Joe Burrow into the fantasy stud he's become while OC in Cincinnati, guiding him to 82 TD passes through his first three seasons. While Ward may not have as high a ceiling as Burrow, his floor suggests he's at least worthy of a roster spot who could find himself startable against certain opponents when byes and injuries begin piling up. Stash him as a QB3 and keep tabs on his production.

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Outlook: Despite posting a 10-7 record in 2024, the Seahawks underwent major changes on offense during the offseason, which included trading Geno Smith to the Raiders while inking Darnold to a three-year deal worth just a shade over $100 million. Given where Darnold was 12 months earlier, it's a stunning rise for the former No. 3 overall pick, who had bounced around with four franchises over his first seven seasons in the NFL, last holding a regular starting job in 2021.

Darnold immediately jelled with Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell, though, and he took over the QB1 role when rookie J.J. McCarthy injured his knee during the preseason. The USC alum went on to lead the Vikings to a 14-3 record while racking up big-time numbers: 4,139 yards, 35 TDs, and 12 INTs. He played poorly in the final two games, however, losing in Detroit with the NFC North and top seed on the line, and then getting brutalized by the Rams in a Wild Card Weekend loss that ended their season. It was enough to make Minnesota think their future was better off with McCarthy, which paved the way for the move to the Emerald City.

For fantasy owners, the change of address is a killer for Darnold's outlook. He goes from operating O'Connell's offense with talent like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson to leading a unit built for a more balanced approach after Seattle threw the ball 593 times last year (seventh-most in the league). While it seems crazy to suggest that someone that finished in the top 10 among fantasy QBs just a season ago should go undrafted, it feels like that's where we are. At best, you could consider Darnold a low-end QB2, albeit with concerns that he could revert to his pre-Vikings form and not even offer playable value.

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