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Regular Season, Updated: 9/3/18

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Legend:   Upside = Upside   Risk = Risk   ADP = Average Draft Position
FF Today Standard Scoring: Review Scoring
 Josh Allen, BUF (Bye: 11)
34
Height: 6’5”   Weight: 233   DOB: 1996-05-21   Age: 22
College: Wyoming   Draft: 2018 Round 1 (7) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2018 (Projected)BUF 125 227 1,545 9 9 16 42 0 117.5  

 C.J. Beathard, SF (Bye: 11)
50
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 219   DOB: 1993-11-16   Age: 25
College: Iowa   Draft: 2017 Round 3 (40) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2017SF6123 224 1,430 4 6 26 136 3 119.1 19.9
2018 (Projected)SF 12 19 135 0 0 0 0 0 6.8  

 Blake Bortles, JAC (Bye: 9)
14
Height: 6’5”   Weight: 232   DOB: 1991-12-16   Age: 27
College: Central Florida   Draft: 2014 Round 1 (3) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015JAC16355 606 4,428 35 18 52 310 2 404.4 25.3
2016JAC16368 625 3,905 23 16 58 359 3 341.2 21.3
2017JAC16315 523 3,687 21 13 56 323 2 312.7 19.5
2018 (Projected)JAC 317 538 3,711 22 14 63 346 2 320.2  

Outlook: Bortles is the best example of a bad real-life QB, but valuable fantasy QB, however, the Jaguars' coaching staff has made a decision to shift the offense from a pass-heavy approach to one that leans heavily on the run game. 2017's 19.5 fantasy points per game represented Bortles' lowest mark since 2014. And even with this finish, Bortles finished as a QB1 in 37.5 percent of his games after being drafted as a late-round QB or streaming option.

Jacksonville had the second highest run/pass ratio at 50 percent which is likely to continue in 2018 barring an injury to Fournette which hurts the upside of Bortles. In addition to this hindrance, the loss of Allen Robinson hurts his receiving group. As a late-round option, Bortles still has some upside as a streaming option, but it's less likely that he finishes as a top 12 QB unless the pass ratio improves.


 Sam Bradford, ARI (Bye: 9)
32
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 224   DOB: 1987-11-08   Age: 31
College: Oklahoma   Draft: 2010 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015PHI14346 532 3,725 19 14 25 39 0 266.2 19.0
2016MIN15395 552 3,877 20 5 20 53 0 279.2 18.6
2017MIN232 43 382 3 0 2 -3 0 30.8 15.4
2018 (Projected)ARI 254 379 2,656 14 6 10 16 0 190.4  

Outlook: With head coach Bruce Arians and quarterback Carson Palmer gone, there's a new era starting in Arizona and it begins with quarterback Sam Bradford. Bradford signed a two-year, $40 million contract before the team drafted Josh Rosen in April's NFL Draft, with $15 million guaranteed in year one. This contract almost certainly means that he'll be given the chance to start, but Rosen was considered by many to be the most NFL-ready quarterback in what is believed to be a strong class, so Bradford's job is certainly not safe.

The last time we saw Bradford was Week 1 of the 2017 season when he lit up a good Saints defense for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns. Then injury reared its ugly head - again - as Bradford suffered a season-ending knee injury during the game. Bradford's injury history is lengthy to say the least and he's one of the few players who can truly be tagged as "injury prone" given the location of the injuries as well as the type and severity. With Arizona expected to have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, it's logical to question Bradford's ability to stay healthy. Add in the fact that the Cardinals invested an early draft pick on Rosen and it seems very possible that we could see Bradford holding a clipboard in the second half of the season, particularly if the Cardinals' record is subpar, as most expect that it will be.

When he's healthy, Bradford has been a solid fantasy producer, but he's only finished as a top-20 fantasy quarterback once in his entire career. With the injury concerns as well as the team makeup and rookie breathing down his neck, Bradford should be one of the last "starting" quarterbacks drafted in most fantasy drafts, but he does have DFS appeal in good matchups.


 Tom Brady, NE (Bye: 11)
3
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 225   DOB: 1977-08-03   Age: 41
College: Michigan   Draft: 2000 Round 6 (33) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015NE16402 624 4,770 36 7 34 53 3 405.8 25.4
2016NE12291 432 3,554 28 2 28 64 0 296.1 24.7
2017NE16385 581 4,576 32 8 25 28 0 359.6 22.5
2018 (Projected)NE 359 544 4,350 32 9 26 42 1 355.7  

Outlook: The ageless wonder continues to play at an elite level entering his age 41 season, fighting back father time and helpless AFC defenders for another top-10 fantasy finish in 2017. Brady completed 66% of his passes for 4576 yards and 32 touchdowns, marking the sixth time in his last seven seasons of 16 games in which he reached at least 30 touchdowns.

As always is the case with a quarterback playing into his 40s, the wheels will eventually come off the rails, as even the future hall of famer will break down at some point. But the consistent level of production and the limited number of interceptions that Brady brings to the table makes him worth the risk.

From a skill position standpoint, the Patriots have more than enough firepower for Brady to finish once again as a top-10 quarterback, even with WR Julian Edelman missing the first four games of the season due to a failed PED test. Perhaps the biggest worry about Brady is the loss of his starting left tackle Nate Solder to free agency and the development of rookie tackle Isaiah Wynn as Brady's blind side protection.


 Drew Brees, NO (Bye: 6)
5
Height: 6’0”   Weight: 209   DOB: 1979-01-15   Age: 39
College: Purdue   Draft: 2001 Round 2 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015NO15429 627 4,878 32 10 24 14 1 379.3 25.3
2016NO16471 673 5,207 37 15 23 20 2 422.4 26.4
2017NO16387 537 4,338 23 8 33 12 2 322.1 20.1
2018 (Projected)NO 400 580 4,585 28 15 4 22 1 349.5  

Outlook: At first glance, Brees' QB11 finish would appear to be adequate, but 2017 was a true disappointment for the future hall of fame quarterback. After being selected as the third overall QB in fantasy drafts, Brees fell well short of his expectations. Despite finishing within the QB1 range, he only managed to finish as a top 12 QB in four of his 16 starts, well short of his 60 percent average over the previous five seasons.

But there's reason for optimism, despite concerns about age, changing scheme, and improving defense. 2017 marked Brees' lowest number of pass attempts since 2009 when he had one fewer start and his lowest number of TD passes since 2003. Compared to 2016, Brees attempted more than 8 fewer passes per game. With Mark Ingram's suspension and the seeming reluctance to over-utilize Alvin Kamara during that suspension, Brees will likely see his pass attempts rise slightly. If Brees can regain 3 to 4 passes per game, he'll likely experience some positive TD regression as well.

After mortgaging their 2019 first round pick, it's evident that New Orleans believes they need to win-now during Brees' last remaining seasons. Barring a Peyton Manning-like fall in efficiency, Brees remains a QB1 with top five potential, however, his acquisition cost will likely be close to his finish so the value is slightly limited.


 Jacoby Brissett, IND (Bye: 9)
39
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 231   DOB: 1992-12-11   Age: 26
College: North Carolina State   Draft: 2016 Round 3 (29) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016NE334 55 400 0 0 16 83 1 34.3 11.4
2017IND16276 469 3,098 13 7 64 260 4 256.9 16.1
2018 (Projected)IND 33 55 371 2 2 11 49 1 37.5  

Outlook: With Andrew Luck coming off of a season-long injury, it would be a disservice to completely ignore the backup. If Brissett plays this season, it's a significant hit to the stock of every other skill player for the Colts, but Brissett could have some streaming value. He had four weeks over 20 fantasy points and four games as a top 12 QB scorer. If forced into action, he may be the one player to retain value, if only intermittently.


 Derek Carr, OAK (Bye: 7)
26
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 214   DOB: 1991-03-28   Age: 27
College: Fresno State   Draft: 2014 Round 2 (4) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015OAK16350 573 3,987 32 13 33 138 0 341.2 21.3
2016OAK15356 559 3,933 28 6 38 69 0 315.6 21.0
2017OAK15323 515 3,496 22 13 23 66 0 269.4 18.0
2018 (Projected)OAK 335 532 3,670 25 12 23 55 0 289.0  

Outlook: Many were predicting a breakout season for Raiders quarterback Derek Carr heading into the 2017 season, as the young passer was coming off of the best season of his career in 2016. Four weeks into the season, however, that breakout season fell apart as Carr suffered a transverse process fracture in his back, which Carr later said was actually three broken bones. While he played through the pain and discomfort, Carr hurt fantasy owners badly as back spasms caused erratic play, causing him to barely finish as even a QB2 despite having one of the league's best wide receiver tandems in Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper.

While he should be much healthier after a full offseason to heal, back injuries often creep back up on athletes and can cause problems. What's worse is, NFL teams often mask those injuries on the injury report by being vague about the location and severity. This can be difficult on fantasy owners as we don't have a good idea whether or not the player is dealing with an injury or if he simply had a bad string of games. Additionally, Carr will now be without his favorite target Michael Crabtree and will be learning a completely new offensive system, making it easy to see why Carr is going undrafted in many standard formats.

Oakland did add Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant, along with Doug Martin who has made an impact in the passing game in the past, but it's hard to argue that those players will make a significant enough impact on Carr to make him anything more than a streaming option at the quarterback position this season.


 Kirk Cousins, MIN (Bye: 10)
12
Height: 6’3”   Weight: 214   DOB: 1988-08-19   Age: 30
College: Michigan State   Draft: 2012 Round 4 (7) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015WAS16379 543 4,166 29 11 26 48 5 359.1 22.4
2016WAS16406 606 4,917 25 12 34 100 4 379.9 23.7
2017WAS16347 540 4,093 27 13 49 179 4 354.6 22.2
2018 (Projected)MIN 338 520 3,845 24 14 52 155 2 315.8  

Outlook: The Vikings came off a snake-bitten 2016 season to have one of the most magical runs in history last year. Despite losing their starting quarterback and running back to season ending injuries early on, the Vikings held it together largely behind the play of an aggressive defense and their journeyman quarterback Case Keenum. While the defense returns largely intact, the Vikings made the splash of the offseason, replacing Keenum with Kirk Cousins.

While Keenum's success was an absolute shock, Cousins has racked up the statistics the past several years. The last three seasons has seen Cousins finish as the No.9, No.5, and No.4 overall fantasy quarterback. He's gone over 4,000 yards three straight years, and has tossed 25+ touchdowns in those seasons as well. Now these prolific numbers haven't exactly translated into wins for his teams, but the former Redskin has become the poster child for the strategy of taking a quarterback late in your draft.

So can Kirk continue to churn out the fantasy numbers as he moves to a more talented, established team? My gut tells me no. For years the Redskins failed miserably to build a reliable defense or running game around Cousins, and he racked up a ton of garbage time statistics trying to win shootouts or salvage respect in blowout losses. The Vikings will likely be favored in most of their games in 2018, and still want to win with defense and their running game. Say what you will about the wins and losses, but Jay Gruden can coach offense, and I think his scheme was very friendly to Cousins. I expect a statistical regression across the board, especially in attempts and touchdowns, but because of the talent he's throwing and handing off to, Kirk should still remain a good bet to finish as a QB1, just one that lands toward the end of the pack rather than in the middle.


 Andy Dalton, CIN (Bye: 9)
24
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 220   DOB: 1987-10-29   Age: 31
College: -   Draft: 2011 Round 2 (3) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015CIN13255 386 3,250 25 7 58 141 3 294.6 22.7
2016CIN16364 563 4,206 18 8 46 184 4 324.7 20.3
2017CIN16297 496 3,320 25 12 38 99 0 275.9 17.2
2018 (Projected)CIN 308 497 3,530 24 11 44 135 2 298.0  

Outlook: I couldn't be less excited to write this preview about Andy Dalton. He's the definition of an average quarterback, as he's really only as good as the players around him, and other than A.J. Green, those players have been just average. With a dreadful offensive line, inconsistent running game, and no players other than Green in the passing game, Dalton "led" Cincinnati to a 7-9 season and saw his yardage and completion percentage drop precipitously. Some positive regression in touchdowns was expected after only throwing 18 in 2016, and his 25 passing scores was 10th best in the NFL, but no matter how you stretch the stats, Dalton just doesn't move the fantasy needle.

The move to Bill Lazor early last season seemed to help some, but Dalton efficiency wasn't good, coming in under 60% completions in 10 of the 16 games. He also became extremely touchdown dependent with only a single game above 300 yards. I do expect this offense to be better overall this year with a full off-season in Lazor's system. Cinci also made improvements on the line in the draft and free agency, and you have to think former 1st round pick John Ross will snag at least 1 reception this year, which would be a 100% improvement over the zero he had as a rookie. All in all, I do think this team will be more competitive this season, and the additions on offense should help Dalton's efficiency and production, but expecting more than fantasy backup level production from Dalton is a fallacy.


 Chase Daniel, CHI (Bye: 5)
42
Height: 6’0”   Weight: 225   DOB: 1986-10-07   Age: 32
College: Missouri   Draft:
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015KC22 2 4 0 0 2 -2 0 0.0 0.0
2016PHI11 1 16 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.8
2017NO10 0 0 0 0 3 -2 0 -0.2 -0.2
2018 (Projected)CHI 32 49 355 2 0 2 7 0 26.5  

 Sam Darnold, NYJ (Bye: 11)
30
Height: 6’3”   Weight: 221   DOB: 1997-06-05   Age: 21
College: Southern California   Draft: 2018 Round 1 (3) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2018 (Projected)NYJ 212 366 2,528 16 11 32 74 1 203.8  

Outlook: The Jets used the third overall pick of the 2018 NFL draft to select USC quarterback Sam Darnold, a highly touted young quarterback who presumably will be the face of the franchise for the next decade. At 6'4, 225 pounds, Darnold has the prototypical size and arm strength to be a star quarterback in the NFL. As a redshirt freshman in 2016, Darnold completed 67% of his passes, with 3086 passing yards and 31 touchdowns in 13 games for the Trojans. As a sophomore last season, Darnold completed only 63% of his throws and threw four more interceptions, but he logged nearly 1000 more passing yards and increased his yards per attempt.

The Jets will likely begin the season with McCown under center as Darnold continues to get acclimated to the NFL. There is no doubt that the job will eventually be his at some point in the near future, but fantasy owners in single quarterback leagues should wait to pull the trigger until Darnold proves to be a viable fantasy asset.