Outlook: A year ago, Nix was an unproven commodity. A first-round pick many felt had been a significant reach when the Broncos called his name with the 12th overall selection. Now, he's locked in as QB1 after finishing third in AP Offensive Rookie of the Year voting behind Washington's Jayden Daniels and Las Vegas' Brock Bowers -- and well ahead of fellow QBs Drake Maye (Patriots) and Caleb Williams (Bears), who were both taken ahead of him.

Looking back on 2024, it's easy to track Nix's development. Early on, he leaned on his athleticism, which is borne out in the stats. Through seven games, the then-rookie averaged 178 yards passing with 5 TDs and 5 INTs, and he added 257 yards and 3 TDs on the ground. Things changed in Week 8. In a 14-point win over Carolina, Nix passed for 284 yards with 3 TDs and no INTs with minimal running (four carries, four yards). That was the formula the rest of the way with Nix averaging 253 yards through the air with 24 TDs and 7 INTs over the final 10 games. He ran for just 173 yards and 1 TD during that stretch.

It's that distribution of numbers that clouds his 2025 outlook to a degree. His development as a passer, coupled with some improvements at the skill positions, is encouraging, but there's a reason the top of the fantasy quarterback rankings is occupied by dual threats. We know Nix can run, but will he? If you look at his final 10 games and project over a full season, it only amounts to 294 yards and 2 TDs, and those numbers aren't moving the needle. Even with some uncertainty, Nix is a viable fantasy starter, and he belongs in the discussion once the top six or seven QBs are off the board.

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Outlook: I remember viewing Trevor Lawrence as a fantasy target as early as his sophomore year at Clemson. The hype surrounding him as the next "It" quarterback was overwhelming, and I bought into it. Fast forward six years and we see a QB who has fallen woefully short of expectations. But I hear the excuses already in 2025 for when - not if - Lawrence continues his slightly-above-average career trajectory: "Let's be patient with Trevor Lawrence. He's learning a new system with a new rookie head coach." Blah, blah, blah.

I would encourage you to temper whatever expectations you may have about a Lawrence breakout campaign. He is a middle-of-the-road fantasy quarterback - nothing more, nothing less. The biggest evidence of that is comparing his standout performances to Brock Purdy's. Purdy has 40 career games under his belt, and he's thrown more than 2 TDs in nine of those games. Lawrence has played in 60 games but has only six such games. Remember, that's a comparison between a player drafted first overall and a player drafted dead last.

Bottom line: Lawrence has been an overhyped, underperforming QB in fantasy and real life. Proceed with extreme caution going into this year's fantasy draft season.

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Outlook: McCarthy, the 2nd-year signal caller from Michigan, gets the job to himself this season as the Vikings unquestioned starter. Missing his rookie year due to a meniscus tear in the preseason, McCarthy watched Sam Darnold have a career year in this offense, and now gets his own chance to give Minnesota a shot at the title. Fitted with a Super Bowl roster of superstars and game breakers, McCarthy needs to play within the offense and use his athleticism and big arm to keep defenses honest. While he got plenty of "mental reps" last year, it's the decision making that's going to make or break this season. While he won a ton at Michigan, he was never asked to carry the load, or operate a complex passing offense. He's got all the physical gifts and intangibles you could ask for, but what gives him fantasy relevance are his coach, and passing game weapons. Like Darold last year, there is a world where McCarthy is efficient, and does enough with his legs to come into fantasy relevance at some point in the year. With 25+ touchdown potential, and elite receivers, McCarthy is one of my favorite upside QB2s.

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Outlook: Michael Penix Jr. is set as Atlanta's starter heading into the 2025 season after replacing a sporadic and ineffective Kirk Cousins late in 2024. Penix's numbers from those three starts last season aren't eye-popping -- 3 TDs and 3 INTs with a 58 percent completion percentage. But the signal-caller on a potentially lethal offense is always an enticing option, regardless of his recent production. Apparently, his numbers from 2024 haven't endeared him to fantasy managers because he's being viewed as a low-end QB2 heading into draft season.

While I think he's being valued correctly, I do think the return on investment could be substantial by year's end. First, there is continuity on the offensive side of the ball. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson returns, along with a scheme that helped the Falcons finish with the 5th most passing yards per game last season (239 yards). Second, Penix has a solid collection of complementary pieces to throw to. And third, he's a young, hungry player with something to prove. For those reasons, Penix could outplay his draft position and reward his managers. If you're waiting to fill your QB2 position, you could do a lot worse than Penix.

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Outlook: In 2023, Stroud had one of the best ever rookie seasons at quarterback. That created high expectations heading into his sophomore season, and he was drafted as a consensus QB1. The addition of WR Stefon Diggs to play alongside breakout receiver Nico Collins added to the hopefulness of a stellar season from Stroud. When the dust settled, Stroud fell short of those expectations, thanks in no small part to Diggs, Collins, and WR Tank Dell all missing multiple games. Stroud played in two more games in 2024 than he did in 2023 but finished last season with fewer passing yards, fewer passing TDs, and more interceptions than his rookie season. Ouch.

Those struggles in 2024 have Stroud slated as a low-end QB2 today. He reportedly had soreness in his throwing shoulder during offseason workouts but is said to be fine as training camp approaches. I actually like the price of Stroud this draft season. If the pieces around him can stay upright and the offensive line doesn't completely fall flat, Stroud can be a solid QB2 with starting potential some weeks. Draft him with confidence as your high-end QB2.

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Outlook: After a breakout 2023 season, Love slogged through an injury plagued 2024. Early season knee and groin injuries, combined with the decimation of his receiver corps left the 5th year quarterback a barely usable option during the 2nd half of the fantasy season. 2025 gives Love and this Green Bay offense a chance to reload and reset. All of the skill position starters return, and the Packers even spent a 1st round pick on a receiver in Notre Dame's Matthew Golden! By adding the speedster to an already crowded receiver room, Love has a bevy of options to target at all levels, and hopefully won't be plagued by a league-leading 23 dropped passes again.

Health, a stable of air weapons and a solid pass blocking line are checks in the positive column, but the presence of Josh Jacobs, and a brutal divisional schedule should temper expectations. The Pack were one of four teams in the NFL to run the ball more than they passed it last season, and as long as Jacobs remains healthy, this should be the case again in 2025. It's incredibly difficult to reach QB1 status with such low volume (30th in team pass attempts), especially since Love offers very little as a runner and passing touchdowns can be fluky. But even with the negatives, Love is a solid option for teams fading the position until late in the draft. Should something happen to Jacobs, Green Bay has the coaching and receivers to make Love an incredible value.

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