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Regular Season, Updated: 8/16/18

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 Jimmy Garoppolo, SF (Bye: 11)
13
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 226   DOB: 1991-11-02   Age: 26
College: Eastern Illinois   Draft: 2014 Round 2 (30) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015NE41 4 6 0 0 5 -5 0 -0.2 -0.1
2016NE643 64 504 4 0 10 6 0 41.8 7.0
2017SF6120 178 1,560 7 5 15 11 1 113.1 18.9
2018 (Projected)SF 347 534 4,056 24 11 29 46 1 309.4  

Outlook: Perhaps the most polarizing player in all of fantasy football heading into the 2018 season, it seems as if fantasy owners are either all-in or all-out on Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers acquired Garoppolo via trade in the middle of the 2017 season after other experiments at the position failed. Garoppolo responded in tremendous fashion, leading the then 1-10 49ers to five straight wins to close out the season. The offense took a huge step forward with Garoppolo behind center, going from just 17 points per game in their first 11 starts without their new franchise quarterback to 28.8 points per game with him.

Garoppolo threw for over 300 yards per game as a starter and was tremendously efficient, throwing for 8.76 yards per attempt - a number which would have led the league by a wide margin if he had started enough games to qualify. Despite being in a new offense that he had to learn mid-way through a season and without a true WR1 on the roster, Garoppolo showed that he possesses the physical skills to be an excellent NFL quarterback, even outside the system in New England.

What's a bit odd, though, is that despite the hype he's getting heading into 2018, Garoppolo's fantasy production during his stretch as the starter was really not all that spectacular. Much of that was due to him throwing just six touchdowns in those five games (he threw a touchdown in garbage time the previous game before taking over as the starter) with five interceptions. Garoppolo's 18.9 fantasy points per game ranked just 21st in the league. It's true that this stat is skewed due to him technically playing an additional game where he threw just two passes, but even if you remove that game, he'd still only be at 21.2 FPts/G, which would be good enough to narrowly edge out Philip Rivers for 11th at the position on the season.

There's plenty of reason to be excited about Garoppolo's upside as he'll have a full offseason to prepare and master the playbook, but his draft price might just be too high in some leagues. Even with Pierre Garcon returning, the 49ers still lack a true high-end WR1 and they're mostly an offense filled with unproven options in the passing game. Garoppolo signed a gigantic contract that almost guarantees that he'll be the starter for the entire 2018 season, which does bring some certainty to an otherwise questionable situation, but he's far from a guaranteed QB1 heading into 2018.


 Blake Bortles, JAC (Bye: 9)
14
Height: 6’5”   Weight: 232   DOB: 1991-12-16   Age: 26
College: Central Florida   Draft: 2014 Round 1 (3) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015JAC16355 606 4,428 35 18 52 310 2 404.4 25.3
2016JAC16368 625 3,905 23 16 58 359 3 341.2 21.3
2017JAC16315 523 3,687 21 13 56 323 2 312.7 19.5
2018 (Projected)JAC 317 538 3,711 22 14 63 346 2 320.2  

Outlook: Bortles is the best example of a bad real-life QB, but valuable fantasy QB, however, the Jaguars' coaching staff has made a decision to shift the offense from a pass-heavy approach to one that leans heavily on the run game. 2017's 19.5 fantasy points per game represented Bortles' lowest mark since 2014. And even with this finish, Bortles finished as a QB1 in 37.5 percent of his games after being drafted as a late-round QB or streaming option.

Jacksonville had the second highest run/pass ratio at 50 percent which is likely to continue in 2018 barring an injury to Fournette which hurts the upside of Bortles. In addition to this hindrance, the loss of Allen Robinson hurts his receiving group. As a late-round option, Bortles still has some upside as a streaming option, but it's less likely that he finishes as a top 12 QB unless the pass ratio improves.


 Carson Wentz, PHI (Bye: 9)
15
Height: 6’5”   Weight: 237   DOB: 1992-12-30   Age: 25
College: North Dakota State   Draft: 2016 Round 1 (2) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016PHI16379 607 3,782 16 14 46 150 2 280.1 17.5
2017PHI13265 440 3,296 33 7 64 299 0 326.7 25.1
2018 (Projected)PHI 293 480 3,506 24 10 70 265 1 303.8  

Outlook: After an up and down rookie season, Carson Wentz exploded onto the fantasy football landscape in 2017 with 33 touchdowns and only seven interceptions before suffering a season-ending ACL tear in Week 14 against the Los Angeles Rams. With at least two touchdowns in 12 of his 14 games, Wentz posted the fifth highest TD% (7.5) by a quarterback in their second season in NFL history, behind Hall of Fame players Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, and Johnny Unitas. Ironically, the player with the highest TD% in their sophomore season is Nick Foles, the quarterback who took over for Wentz last season and led the Eagles to their first Super Bowl.

When you consider the fact that Sid Luckman's 7.9% TD rate is the highest in NFL history and future first ballot hall of famer Tom Brady owns a career TD rate of 5.5%, a negative regression for Wentz is likely in 2018. It should also be noted that although Wentz posted impressive touchdown numbers in 2017, his completion percentage dipped down to just over 60% from 62% as a rookie, suggesting that his success throwing touchdowns at a high rate is an outlier.

Questions surrounding his ability to return to form from his severe knee injury also hurts the draft value of Wentz heading into 2018. As a quarterback who excels at moving both inside and outside the pocket, the inability to evade would-be tacklers and extending plays could hurt Wentz's overall value in 2018. However, Wentz is surrounded by a collection of talented wide receivers and running backs, and Doug Pederson's stellar offensive scheme should help Wentz finish as a top 12 QB this season.


 Jared Goff, LAR (Bye: 12)
16
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 215   DOB: 1994-10-14   Age: 23
College: California   Draft: 2016 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016LAR7112 205 1,089 5 7 8 16 1 82.1 11.7
2017LAR15297 478 3,809 28 7 28 51 1 313.6 20.9
2018 (Projected)LAR 307 504 3,829 26 8 20 38 1 305.3  

Outlook: From rags to riches, Jared Goff went from being perhaps the most criticized quarterback in the league in 2016 and transformed himself a respected and legitimate threat throwing the ball in 2017. Goff saw one of the biggest increases in QB rating from one season to the next of any player in NFL history. It's probably no coincidence that this sudden improvement happened right when the Rams moved on from Jeff Fisher to Sean McVay, as this obviously did wonders for the Rams offense as a whole. Goff saw perhaps the biggest improvement of any player, though, as he benefited from a more high-tempo offense and particularly saw some benefit from a little-known rule that McVay was able to make use of. Coaches can communicate with players until there are 15 seconds remaining on the play clock and the Rams took full advantage of that rule. Combine that with some quick play calling from the sidelines, McVay was able to see the defense on the field and even call audibles in Goff's ear prior to the snap.

Certainly the Rams will look to continue to find ways to get an edge on the opposing defenses, but with a full offseason to prepare, defenses may opt to give Goff and McVay some faux looks initially, only to shift once the play call reaches 15 seconds. Goff is a smart enough player that he could presumably still make the right changes to re-counter the defense before the snap, but this is certainly an advantage the Rams had in 2017 that they might not have in 2018.

A natural candidate for regression, Goff threw just 477 passes this past season. The only other QBs who finished in the top-12 with fewer than 500 pass attempts were Carson Wentz, Cam Newton and Dak Prescott. Wentz had historic levels of efficiency and is likely in line for some regression of his own, while Newton and Prescott both rushed for six touchdowns in addition to some impressive rushing yardage totals. Unlike Prescott and Newton, Goff's 51 total rushing yards from 2017 show us that he has a low floor if he has a slow day through the air.

In addition to these concerns, the Rams should be even better defensively which traditionally leads to fewer passing attempts. Unless he drastically improves his efficiency - which seems unlikely - or is given the chance to throw the ball substantially more, it seems unlikely that Goff will finish at or ahead of where he did in 2017 when he finished as the QB12 in standard scoring formats. Goff isn't likely to ascend to the next level and become a top passer in the league but fantasy owners should be confident that the rookie season woes he had are now a thing of the past. That's a good thing for Goff's long-term prospects the rest of the Rams' offensive weapons.


 Marcus Mariota, TEN (Bye: 8)
17
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 222   DOB: 1993-10-30   Age: 24
College: Oregon   Draft: 2015 Round 1 (2) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015TEN12230 371 2,818 19 10 34 252 2 254.1 21.2
2016TEN15276 451 3,426 26 9 59 357 2 323.0 21.5
2017TEN15281 453 3,232 13 15 60 312 5 274.8 18.3
2018 (Projected)TEN 309 499 3,640 19 14 61 330 3 309.0  

Outlook: Despite Tennessee being a playoff team, 2017 was a step backwards for Marcus Mariota as a fantasy quarterback. The team added multiple receivers in the NFL draft, but ranked 28th in the league in total pass attempts. But with Mike Mularkey gone as head coach and replaced with Mike Vrabel, there's some reason for optimism.

2017 was a QB2 season for Mariota and that was somewhat salvaged by his rushing production. Mariota threw 15 interceptions to just 13 touchdowns and produced his lowest passing touchdown rate of his career. He did manage 312 rushing yards and the extra points from his five rushing TDs largely kept him from being a bust.

Vrabel's offensive plans are largely unknown, but the addition of Matt LaFleur to the staff as offensive coordinator immediately raised eyebrows. LaFleur led the Rams offense in 2017 and helped Jared Goff go from a bottom-tier quarterback to seemingly competent. Goff finished 2017 as the QB12 and with another season with his young WR corps, there's hope that Mariota could rise beyond that level. He's yet to produce a top 12 QB season, but a new offensive system in 2018 can only help, making Mariota a bounce-back target and a good late-round target in your draft.


 Andrew Luck, IND (Bye: 9)
18
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 234   DOB: 1989-09-12   Age: 28
College: Stanford   Draft: 2012 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015IND7162 293 1,881 15 12 33 196 0 173.7 24.8
2016IND15346 545 4,240 31 13 64 341 2 382.1 25.5
2018 (Projected)IND 298 489 3,520 22 13 38 195 1 289.5  

Outlook: Wrap this man in bubble wrap. No, like seriously, protect him with more than a below-average offensive line. 2017 was a sad season without Luck. After being told all off-season by the team's front office that Luck would be ready for the regular season, he wasn't. They refused to put him on the PUP list and waited until midway through the year to admit that he wouldn't be available at all. So, many drafters may feel burned after wasting a roster spot on him as a "late-round flier", but you shouldn't forget how good he's been during his career for fantasy owners with more than 60% of his career starts ending as a top 12 QB.

The biggest concerns about Luck's value in 2018 are potential injury risk and potential changes to his play style due to previous injuries. The former speaks for itself. Any player coming off of a significant injury is a risk to be injured again. The latter refers to Luck's sneaky rushing production and the potential for a shift to a safer style. In 2016, Luck finished with the 7th most rushing yards for quarterbacks and 2 rushing TDs. Luck has averaged just under 3 rushing TDs per season and in 4-point per passing TD leagues, these six-point scores provide real value to fantasy teams. If Luck plays a more risk-averse style and limits his rushing attempts, his upside could be significantly limited.

With more and more news emerging about the likelihood of Luck being healthy for training camp, his ADP has subsequently risen. As it stands, Luck is being drafted as the QB11 at the start of the 9th round. If that holds, he has the potential to be a great value. There's some concerns about his receiver corps, but the last time we saw Luck, he finished as the QB4 in just 15 games. Continue to watch training camp news for any reports about his shoulder, but if he remains a low-end QB1 during the draft, take him. He's a low-risk, high ceiling selection at that price.


 Dak Prescott, DAL (Bye: 8)
19
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 226   DOB: 1993-07-29   Age: 25
College: Mississippi State   Draft: 2016 Round 4 (37) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016DAL16311 459 3,667 23 4 57 282 6 339.6 21.2
2017DAL16308 490 3,325 22 13 57 357 6 326.0 20.4
2018 (Projected)DAL 305 501 3,455 20 9 60 336 3 304.4  

Outlook: The 2017 season for the Dallas Cowboys was marred by off-field issues with running back Ezekiel Elliott and internal strife between former star receiver Dez Bryant and the coaching staff. Through all of the ups and downs of the turbulent season, second-year quarterback Dak Prescott managed to finish as the 14th ranked quarterback in points per game for the second consecutive season.

Although his end totals mirrored his rookie season in terms of total fantasy points, Prescott did not look like the same confident quarterback from the previous season. His 62.9 % completion percentage was nearly five percentage points lower than in 2016; he threw for 300 fewer yards while throwing seven more interceptions.

After a strong start to the season that included three weeks of three or more passing touchdowns against the Rams, Packers, and 49ers from Week 4 through Week 7, Prescott failed to throw a passing TD in six of his final ten games.

The Cowboys completely revamped their passing weapons entering the 2018 season, with Bryant leaving the team as a cap casualty and tight end Jason Witten retiring to join the Monday Night Football booth on ESPN. Prescott will need to quickly build a rapport with veteran WR signee Allen Hurns and rookie Michael Gallup, and one of the many tight ends on the Dallas roster will need to pick up the slack from Witten's abrupt departure. Although Prescott does not have attractive weapons on paper, the absence of Bryant could make the Dallas passing game more efficient, as Prescott will no longer need to worry about appeasing a prima donna wide receiver who is past his prime. Assuming Prescott will continue his recent streak of logging at least five rushing touchdowns and he can reach at least 20 passing touchdowns, another 14th-place finish is well within reach.


 Ryan Tannehill, MIA (Bye: 11)
20
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 221   DOB: 1988-07-27   Age: 30
College: Texas A&M   Draft: 2012 Round 1 (8) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015MIA16364 587 4,210 24 12 32 141 1 326.6 20.4
2016MIA13261 389 2,997 19 12 39 164 1 248.3 19.1
2018 (Projected)MIA 333 528 3,855 22 12 30 118 1 298.6  

Outlook: Instead of opting for surgery after injuring his knee against Arizona in Week 14 of the 2016 season, Tannehill decided to rest and rehab his ailing knee. That decision proved to be costly, as the former first-round pick out of Texas A&M blew out his knee again in a training camp scrimmage, causing him to miss all of 2017 and the Dolphins finished with a disappointing 6-10 record.

Prior to the initial injury against the Cardinals in 2016, Tannehill and the Miami offense looked to be clicking in the final quarter of the season. Tannehill completed 71% of his passes from Weeks 10 through 14, while throwing for at least two touchdowns in four of his final five games.

With quarterback being as deep of a position as any in fantasy football in 2018, Tannehill's lack of top-5 upside will likely make him a mid-range QB2 and a player that will go undrafted in most formats. Despite this fact, he does have streaming appeal for those opting to wait on the position, especially in home games against the Raiders, Jets, and Bills.


 Alex Smith, WAS (Bye: 4)
21
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 217   DOB: 1984-05-07   Age: 34
College: Utah   Draft: 2005 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015KC16307 470 3,486 20 7 84 498 2 316.1 19.8
2016KC15328 489 3,502 15 8 48 134 5 278.5 18.6
2017KC15341 505 4,042 26 5 60 355 1 347.6 23.2
2018 (Projected)WAS 330 508 3,559 21 6 65 299 2 303.9  

Outlook: Smith posted a career-best 23.2 fantasy points last season with the Chiefs as the No.4 fantasy quarterback, setting career highs in yards (4,042), passing touchdowns (26) and completions (341). Not only was Smith excellent in short and intermediate throws that he has been known for over his 12-year NFL career, but he also finished as the No.1 downfield passer in adjusted completion percentage according to ProFootballFocus.com.

The Chiefs rewarded Smith for his career-year by trading the veteran to the Washington Redskins for cornerback Kendall Fuller and a 2018 third-round draft pick. Smith replaces Kirk Cousins as the starting quarterback for the Redskins after Cousins left via free agency to join the Minnesota Vikings in a lucrative 3-year, $84 million deal.

From a fantasy perspective, it is difficult to project how Smith will fare in 2018 under Jay Gruden. Andy Reid tailored his offense around Smith with a quick passing offense that built upon Smith's strengths as a cerebral quarterback who often favored tucking and running with the ball instead of forcing the issue in tight coverage, as evident to the fact that Smith never threw more than eight interceptions in a season with Kansas City.

Conversely, Smith's penchant for avoiding risky throws limits his touchdown upside, as the former first overall pick in the 2005 NFL draft has never thrown for more than 26 touchdowns in a season. Smith will not kill you with bad throws and turnovers, but he will not be a week-winning difference maker compared to other quarterbacks going in the late rounds of drafts.

Smith is a safe late-round pick and a nice streaming option for owners who opt to wait on QB until the double-digit rounds in drafts this summer. However, due to the fact that Smith has fewer weapons in Washington and the unknown of how he will do under Jay Gruden, expecting another top-4 performance for Smith may be a far-fetched.


 Case Keenum, DEN (Bye: 10)
22
Height: 6’1”   Weight: 205   DOB: 1988-02-17   Age: 30
College: Houston   Draft:
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015STL576 125 828 4 1 12 5 0 57.9 11.6
2016LAR10196 322 2,201 9 11 20 51 1 157.2 15.7
2017MIN15325 481 3,547 22 7 40 160 1 287.4 19.2
2018 (Projected)DEN 330 523 3,768 22 11 56 175 1 299.9  

Outlook: College football's all-time most productive passer, Case Keenum, went undrafted and has bounced around the league, from the Texans to the Rams to the Vikings but he might have finally found a place to stick on the Broncos who gave him a two-year $36 million deal. Denver has been struggling to find a quarterback since the retirement of Peyton Manning, with young quarterbacks like Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch seemingly failing in every opportunity they've been given. A veteran presence at quarterback should bring some stability to this offense.

Keenum only started 15 games with Vikings but he made his presence felt, leading the team to a 12-3 in those games, including a playoff win over the Saints. Keenum's 22 touchdown passes on the season won't dazzle you but his 22-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio was one of the big reasons why the Vikings were in control of as many games as they were. That's great for the Broncos who still have one of the league's most threatening defenses, but it doesn't do a lot for us fantasy owners who will need to see more in order to make Keenum a fantasy starter on a week-to-week basis.

From a personal standpoint, Keenum walks into a situation that's not all that different from the one he saw in 2017 with the Vikings. Like the Vikings, the Broncos have two established outside wide receivers who are capable of winning in multiple areas of the field, there's a young running back who is expected to get much of the early down work, and they have an offensive line with some question marks heading into the season. The big difference is that the Broncos are simply not as deep as the Vikings, who also had the likes of pass catching specialist Jerick McKinnon at running back and Kyle Rudolph at tight end.

At the moment, Keenum projects to be a streaming option at the position who does see some seemingly favorable passing matchups against divisional opponents like the Raiders and Chiefs, but he's probably not someone who will be drafted in anything other than two-QB or superflex formats.


 Eli Manning, NYG (Bye: 9)
23
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 218   DOB: 1981-01-03   Age: 37
College: -   Draft: 2004 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015NYG16387 618 4,436 35 14 20 61 0 367.9 23.0
2016NYG16377 598 4,027 26 16 21 -9 0 304.5 19.0
2017NYG15352 571 3,468 19 13 12 26 1 258.0 17.2
2018 (Projected)NYG 346 558 3,851 24 15 17 33 1 297.9  

Outlook: To say the 2017 New York Football Giants were a dumpster fire would be a gross understatement, as the G-men finished 31st in total offense and 28th overall in total defense. The team was a train wreck from the onset of the season, with Odell Beckham Jr. suffering a season-ending leg injury, and a Paul Perkins-led ground game failing to produce any semblance of a running game behind the 26th-ranked offensive line (according to Pro Football Focus).

A 3-13 record culminated with the bizarre benching and subsequent reinstatement of franchise quarterback Eli Manning in Week 13, and the eventual dismissal of head coach Ben McAdoo. Lost in all the off-field drama was the fact that Manning, despite losing arguably the best wide receiver in the league and garnering no help from a piss-poor rushing attack, finished with a completion percentage of 62%, while throwing the second-fewest interceptions of his 14-year career.

Although the quarterback position in 2018 is by far the deepest it has ever been, with at least 14 serviceable fantasy quarterbacks available in the draft, Manning will likely go undrafted in most redraft leagues this summer. Recency bias is something that affects many owners and the ability to look past last year's debacle is not an easy task. However, with the addition of left tackle Nate Solder and guard Will Hernandez, the Giants made great strides improving the offensive line for both pass protection and run blocking.

In addition, the addition of superstar prospect Saquon Barkley and the return of a healthy Beckham will give Manning more than enough weapons to dissect opposing defenses and improve on last year's finish as the No. 31 scoring offense. Manning is the only quarterback in the NFL who boasts a top-5 fantasy WR, top-12 RB, and top-5 TE. If fantasy owners believe that Beckham Jr, Barkley, and Evan Engram will live up to their ADP, then Manning is grossly undervalued and could be a top-12 QB that will go undrafted in most formats.


 Andy Dalton, CIN (Bye: 9)
24
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 220   DOB: 1987-10-29   Age: 30
College: -   Draft: 2011 Round 2 (3) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2015CIN13255 386 3,250 25 7 58 141 3 294.6 22.7
2016CIN16364 563 4,206 18 8 46 184 4 324.7 20.3
2017CIN16297 496 3,320 25 12 38 99 0 275.9 17.2
2018 (Projected)CIN 308 497 3,530 24 11 44 135 2 298.0  

Outlook: I couldn't be less excited to write this preview about Andy Dalton. He's the definition of an average quarterback, as he's really only as good as the players around him, and other than A.J. Green, those players have been just average. With a dreadful offensive line, inconsistent running game, and no players other than Green in the passing game, Dalton "led" Cincinnati to a 7-9 season and saw his yardage and completion percentage drop precipitously. Some positive regression in touchdowns was expected after only throwing 18 in 2016, and his 25 passing scores was 10th best in the NFL, but no matter how you stretch the stats, Dalton just doesn't move the fantasy needle.

The move to Bill Lazor early last season seemed to help some, but Dalton efficiency wasn't good, coming in under 60% completions in 10 of the 16 games. He also became extremely touchdown dependent with only a single game above 300 yards. I do expect this offense to be better overall this year with a full off-season in Lazor's system. Cinci also made improvements on the line in the draft and free agency, and you have to think former 1st round pick John Ross will snag at least 1 reception this year, which would be a 100% improvement over the zero he had as a rookie. All in all, I do think this team will be more competitive this season, and the additions on offense should help Dalton's efficiency and production, but expecting more than fantasy backup level production from Dalton is a fallacy.