8/25/12
The middle of my league’s draft is the most exciting time
of the entire fantasy season. Humbly, I’ll admit that I’m
one of the most well-prepared owners in my league, and the middle
of the draft is the time when I try to separate myself from those
who otherwise view the drafting process as a casual walk in the
park. Targets in this area of the draft are plentiful, but here
are half a dozen that I see as strong candidates for a high return-on-investment:
WR
Justin Blackmon, JAC
ADP 9.12
Jacksonville quarterback Blaine Gabbert was nothing special last
year during his rookie season. Part of that indeed had something
to do with the dearth of talent at the receiving position. The
Jags set out to do something about it by selecting Justin Blackmon
in the first round of this year’s draft. Blackmon was arguably
the most dynamic collegiate receiver the last two years, and he’s
primed to continue displaying his talent even as a rookie. Fellow
receivers Mike Thomas and free agent pick-up Laurent Robinson,
along with tight end Marcedes Lewis, should help improve the overall
performance of Jacksonville’s passing game. But make no
mistake about it: Blackmon is the lead dog in this aerial attack.
His 9.12 ADP suggests he’s a WR3 in fantasy this year, but
I see the potential for him to outperform that spot. He has a
very good chance of mirroring the achievements of A.J. Green and
Julio Jones during their rookie seasons last year.
QB
Matt Ryan, ATL
ADP 6.04
Ryan is more than capable of cracking 30
TDs in 2012.
Ryan finished last season with career highs in passing yards and
touchdowns, yet he’s routinely listed behind such players as Michael
Vick (injury risk) and Philip
Rivers (coming off a subpar season). I foresee Atlanta leaning
more on Ryan than they ever have. Where once this team fed workhorse
back Michael
Turner more than 300 times a season, we can now expect them
to utilize the strength of this offense, which is its passing
attack. Roddy
White and Julio Jones are both poised to have solid seasons,
and don’t be surprised if backup running back Jacquizz
Rodgers becomes more of a factor this year. What does all
of this mean? It means that Ryan has all the necessary tools around
him to eclipse 30 touchdowns for the first time in his career
and that he will outperform several QBs selected ahead of him.
Building your team with solid RBs and WRs first before picking
Ryan is a fine strategy to have.
RB
David Wilson, NYG
ADP 8.07
Brandon Jacobs’ departure and Ahmad Bradshaw’s annual
bout with nagging injuries make David Wilson an intriguing selection
come draft day. The Giants have employed a committee approach
at running back the last several seasons, and that should continue
this year. Wilson is a freakish athlete who was on the track and
field team at Virginia Tech, and his quickness and speed should
add value to New York’s running attack. With Bradshaw nursing
his hand injury, Wilson has taken first-team reps at practice
ahead of D.J. Ware, adding even more credence to the notion that
Wilson will see his share of opportunities. He should be drafted
as an RB3 with tremendous upside.
RB
Rashad Jennings, JAC
ADP 8.12
Jennings’ stock is rising maybe as rapidly as any other
player in the league. Maurice Jones-Drew’s continued holdout
coupled with Jennings’ stellar play so far this preseason
has led many fantasy players to hop on the Jennings bandwagon.
He’s been a career backup, but one common thread that is
woven between all fantasy sleepers is the fact that they were
given an opportunity—and opportunity, from my perspective,
is the most important component when we’re trying to figuring
out targets for the middle of the draft. It’s also no accident
that two Jaguars are on this list. Jacksonville, I believe, will
be a team that surprises many people this year. They may not make
the playoffs, but they’ll give playoff teams fits all year,
and Jennings should be a primary reason why. And, sure, MJD will
at some point return, but it’s no secret that running backs
who hold out never perform to the level that they could have if
they had arrived in camp on time. So use that to your advantage
by taking Jennings as an RB3, and expect productive results.
WR
Nate Washington, TEN
ADP 9.09
Nate Washington had the most receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns
of his career in 2011. He stepped up his play the moment the Titans
lost Kenny Britt for the year, including a couple of monster performances
during the second half of the season. Jake Locker gets the nod
at quarterback, but that shouldn’t hinder Washington’s
chances of building upon last year’s production. Locker
can produce the same kind of numbers that Matt Hasselbeck did
last year (3,514/18/14). Throw in the fact that the Titans have
a conditioned Chris Johnson in the mix, and all of a sudden you
have a Tennessee offense that can do some things. There are whispers
as well that offensive coordinator Chris Palmer will utilize Run
’n’ Shoot concepts in the passing game. Chances are
that won’t be their base offense, but the fact that they’re
thinking about using a scheme that puts pressure on the secondary
bodes well for a player like Washington. He’s a solid pick
at his ADP and should become a fixture in your lineup.
TE
Jermaine Gresham, CIN
ADP 10.11
The Bengals had a slight scare when Gresham hyper-extended his
knee during the preseason opener, but it was only a minor setback.
He should be fine and will serve as Cincy’s second receiving
option behind A.J. Green. The team even plans to line him up as
a receiver on the outside to take advantage of his athleticism
against smaller players. He’s not in the league of a Rob
Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham, but Gresham is inching up the ranks
of the Tier 2 TEs. And he is part of this new breed of tight end.
He has the size to overpower smaller defenders and the speed to
outmaneuver slower ones. Don’t panic if you miss out on
the top TEs; remain patient, snatch Gresham with a mid-round selection,
and be happy you did.
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