While the first few rounds of a fantasy draft are chock full of
players everyone has heard of, and whose abilities and opportunities
are fairly well anticipated, it is often those taken later in the
draft—or even after the draft—who can really make a
successful season. Here is a short list of guys taken after Round
8 last year who made a significant impact for their lucky fantasy
owners: C.J. Spiller (9.03), Andrew Luck (9.12), Russell Wilson
(10.11), Kyle Rudolph (12.08), Alfred Morris (13.01), James Jones
(undrafted), Cecil Shorts (undrafted), and T.Y. Hilton (undrafted).
With so much attention being paid to finding the next breakout star,
it is often tough to find actual sleepers these days, but the following
players are guys that are going after the eighth round that could
potentially provide starter-type production in 12-team leagues at
some point this year.
Running Backs
Danny
Woodhead, SD
(ADP 10.01)
A former role-player in New England, Woodhead has a chance to carve
out a more significant role in San Diego this year. Currently penciled
in as the backup to Ryan Matthews and the primary third-down back,
Woodhead has the ability to catch the ball, pass protect, and squeeze
into tight spaces. Although his size limits him from being a 20-touch-per-game
guy, he has enough speed and quickness to turn 10-plus touches into
some serious yardage. With only Ronnie
Brown (possibly on the roster bubble) to compete with after
Matthews, Woodhead has a clear path to touches even if Matthews
stays healthy and produces. The reason I like Woodhead as a sleeper
this season is (a.) I don’t trust Matthews to stay healthy or to
be super-effective, and (b.) I see the Chargers going to a short,
quick passing attack, which suits Woodhead perfectly in check-downs
and swing patterns. While Woodhead probably wouldn’t crack the top
15 RBs even as a starter, he has enough appeal as a flex guy when
Mathews is starting, and some upside as a RB2 if/when Matthews gets
hurt or struggles.
Take a flier on Michael towards the end
of your draft.
Christine
Michael, SEA
(ADP 13.10)
Sometimes you just have to go with your gut in making some decisions
in fantasy football, and this guy just has that “it” factor to me.
Michael, the Seahawks' second-round pick this year, should start
the season as Marshawn
Lynch’s backup and will probably be fairly limited because of
Lynch’s high productivity. I like Michael this year partly because
he is super-talented, but also because I think it’s very possible
that Lynch either begins to break down this season, or the Seahawks
decide to limit his workload and see what they have waiting for
them in the near future. Spending a second-round pick on a player
usually means you play them right away, and I doubt they waste someone
as talented as Michael by putting him on the bench. To me it is
a very real possibility that the Seahawks cut ties with Lynch after
this year, and Michael has the tools to be a stud running back,
both in fantasy and in the NFL. If it wasn’t for some off-the-field
issues, Michael would have been a surefire first-round pick, as
he has a rare combination of size, speed, and quickness that NFL
coaches love. You are going out on a limb by taking this guy, but
at his current 14th-round ADP, there are very few guys there that
have the chance to be a top 10 RB if the cards fall the right way.
Lynch owners need to grab this guy for sure, but other managers
may want to take a flier on Michael too, as he could pay off in
a big way during the season’s second half.
Deep Sleep:
Andre
Ellington, ARI
(ADP undrafted)
Another name to keep in mind in super-deep leagues, or a guy to
watch on the waiver wire, Ellington is a Cardinals rookie from Clemson
with great quickness, hands, and straight-line speed. The reason
I like Ellington as a super-deep sleeper is because the other Cardinals
backs do not impress me at all and Ellington has a skill set that
may help him get on the field more than expected in his first year.
Rashard Mendenhall, the current starter, has had a solid yet very
unspectacular career thus far, never really living up to the hype
that he had when he came into the league with Pittsburgh. Behind
Mendenhall is Ryan Williams, who has a load of talent but is very
injury prone; I'd be very surprised if he played much at all this
year. Ellington has a chance to be the Cardinals' third-down back
right away and, if he can produce, may even steal some carries from
Mendy before the season’s halfway point. Keep Ellington in
the back of your mind right now, but be ready to pounce on him if
he shows anything the first few weeks of the season, as it could
be a sign of good things to come.
Joique
Bell, DET
(ADP undrafted)
Bell burst on the scene last year with Detroit as a third-down back
and quickly gained the trust of coaches and earned more touches
as the year went on. While he never had a huge fantasy game, he
was fairly consistent in the passing game and his overall numbers
(5.0 ypc, 52 rec, 899 total yds) were pretty impressive for a very
part-time player. While Mikel
Leshoure was the more heralded back coming out of college, Bell
looked much more explosive and productive with the carries he received.
On the depth chart this year, Bell starts off ahead of Leshoure
and behind Reggie
Bush, who has a checkered injury history (23 games missed) going
into his eighth year in the league. While Bell doesn’t have quite
the makeup to be an every-down back, the Lions do not use a traditional
power-running offense, and thus Bell could see 12 or more touches
a game if Bush were to go down. Coaches have raved about Bell this
offseason, and with Leshoure’s lack of real production last year,
Bell could be a nice flex option if the opportunity presented itself
later in the year.
Wide Receivers
Ryan
Broyles, DET
(ADP 11.07)
Broyles is recovering from his second ACL surgery in two years,
and with Megatron on the same team, it's easy to see why many people
don’t think much about the second-year pro. Before tearing his ACL
last year, Broyles had a nice five-game stretch where he caught
20 balls for nearly 300 yards, with two touchdowns added in. Broyles,
who quarterback Matthew
Stafford calls “a chain mover,” has just decent size and speed
but terrific hands, very precise route running, and the smarts to
know how to find the defense's weaknesses and get open fast. With
Calvin
Johnson lining up on the outside and commanding double teams,
Broyles should have no trouble drawing single coverage almost every
play, and Stafford should target him seven or more times every game
in one of the league’s most pass-heavy offenses. While his appeal
is higher in PPR leagues, and his injury history is still a concern,
Broyles could easily be the team’s second leading receiver. And
on a team that led the NFL in passing attempts last year, that should
make him a solid WR3 every game. For a guy being drafted like a
low-end WR4, Broyles has a ton of upside and sleeper appeal this
season.
Vincent
Brown, SD
(ADP 10.01)
It’s easy to forget about Vincent Brown, as his 2012 season was
wiped out by injury. Now entering his third year, Brown has a chance
to be the No. 1 receiver in San Diego, with wide receiver Danario
Alexander out for the entire year. Brown doesn’t have elite
physical skills but possesses great hands, runs solid routes, and
has the toughness to go over the middle and grab the ball regardless
of what’s around him. With a pretty awful offensive line and an
aging Phillip Rivers at quarterback, the Chargers are going to more
of a short, quick passing offense, and Brown’s skill set fits perfectly
into that type of game plan. Durability is of course a concern,
but for a guy who could lead his team in catches and receiving yardage,
Brown is a real bargain in the late ninth round, where he is being
drafted as a WR4. He certainly doesn’t have the name appeal yet,
but that’s what makes him a sleeper and why he presents great value
for where he is being taken.
Deep Sleep:
Brice
Butler, OAK
(ADP undrafted)
Ok, this one takes a huge leap of faith, and I am not advocating
drafting Butler in any but the very deepest leagues, but hear me
out here. Butler has the size (6'3", 214lbs) and the speed (4.37
40) to be a very solid NFL receiver, and there has been some positive
buzz and production (2 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown against
the Cowboys last week) so far this preseason. While these numbers
do not mean much alone, the fact remains that Butler, who is currently
third or fourth on the Raiders depth chart, has very little quality
competition in front of him and is on a team that will probably
be forced to throw a lot all season long. Butler has recently been
practicing in the slot and may be targeted a lot by quarterback
Matt
Flynn, who doesn’t exactly have the strongest arm in the world.
With Flynn at quarterback, the Raiders may abandon their long-running
strategy of a deep passing attack and instead go to more of a quicker
and shorter passing game in order to get the ball out of the hand
of an average talent under center. In this scenario Butler might
have a chance to get a decent volume of targets and use his speed
to break some long ones. Look, someone has to catch balls for the
Raiders this year, and the other guys we know ahead of Butler are
either wildly inconsistent (Denarius
Moore), injury-prone (Jacoby
Ford), or average talent-wise (Rod
Streater). Relying on Butler is not for the faint of heart,
but a lot of stars come from nowhere... and this is an article on
sleepers (not stars) for goodness sakes.
Tight Ends
Jordan
Cameron, CLE
(ADP 9.07)
Fantasy geeks have been abuzz about Cameron as a sleeper for a couple
of months now, but his ADP is still very low (though rising), so
count me in on the Cameron hype train this season. To share a little
of my own personal strategy on TE drafting here, I am either taking
Jimmy
Graham if he falls to a comfortable spot for me or I am waiting
quite a bit longer and grabbing Cameron along with some other TE
after the ninth round. That is not only to show how deep I think
the position is once again this year, but also to show how much
faith in Cameron I have. If you are not going to get an elite guy
like Graham, the next 10 or so guys are so similar that you might
as well grab a guy that has the highest level of value mixed with
upside, and that is Cameron. Besides all the good reports we hear
about him from camp, and the fact that he caught two touchdowns
in his second preseason game, the good news goes much deeper. Cameron
is a physical specimen with above average speed at 6'5" and 254
pounds, but he is also in an offense that features the tight end
and throws deep a lot. These things combined mean that Cameron not
only has the potential to catch a lot of balls, but unlike a lot
of other TEs who are targeted five yards downfield (paging Brandon
Pettigrew), the Browns offense should be sending Cameron deep on
many plays, thus leading to lots of yards and potential long touchdowns.
Cameron has even been lining up in the slot this preseason, showing
his versatility and the fact that the Browns want to get him the
ball in any way possible. While quarterback Brandon
Weeden wasn’t the greatest as a rookie, he does have a strong
arm and has shown improvement—and some chemistry with Cameron—this
preseason. Looking for the next big thing at TE? Look no further
than Cameron.
Deep Sleep:
Zach
Sudfeld, NE
(ADP 12.07)
I’ve seen Sudfeld drafted a bit higher in a few mocks I’ve done
recently, but he still isn’t getting much love compared to what
his potential could be in an offense that features tight ends with
few real dependable healthy options right now. With Rob Gronkowski
out and Aaron
Hernandez off the team, Sudfeld has been the first-team tight
end by default, but he has received a lot of praise and has shown
some production in two preseason games thus far (3 rec, 54 yds,
1 TD, and a 2-pt conversion). Besides wide receiver Danny
Amendola (injury-prone himself), the Pats do not have any real
proven pass-catchers on their roster, so the 6'7" Sudfeld has a
real chance to carve out a role, even when Gronk comes back from
his injury. If for some reason Gronk cannot return soon, Sudfeld
would become a very startable TE1 right away and could build some
momentum with Tom
Brady that could earn him lots of reps throughout the season.
It has even been recently suggested by New England reporters that
Sudfeld could fill the role that made Aaron Hernandez a solid TE1
last season. While it is tough to carry a lot of TEs on your fantasy
roster (as the position is deep and it is less important to have
depth there), if you have the bench space, Sudfeld at least has
the potential to be a solid contributor in spots. Keep him on your
radar.
Quarterbacks
Jay
Cutler, CHI
(ADP 12.03)
Jay Cutler is not a traditional sleeper in that he has been a household
name for several years now. However, he is being drafted as a lower-end
backup QB in 12-team leagues, and I actually believe he could put
up starter numbers this year, making him a great value and a bit
of a sleeper. There are a bunch of reasons that make Cutler a great
later-round pick, and that’s not even counting the physical talent
that has always made him a high-upside player. First, the new coaching
staff, including Marc Trestman, are well-known in the football world
for being quarterback-friendly coaches and teachers and have made
the passing game a focus this offseason. Second, last year Cutler
basically had Brandon
Marshall as his only weapon (granted, an elite weapon), often
times throwing to him in double and triple coverage. This season,
the Bears should have a fully healthy (and more experienced) Alshon
Jeffery, who has apparently had a great offseason and is a big
(6'3", 220 lbs.) and talented target. In addition, the Bears went
out and got tight end Martellus
Bennett, who had a breakout season with the Giants last year
(55 rec, 626 yds, 5 TDs) and provides Cutler with the first real
pass-catching tight end he has had since Greg
Olsen a few years back. Third, the Bears also improved the offensive
line, a major weakness last year, by getting some veteran depth
and drafting Kyle Long in the first round of the draft. Fourth,
the Bears defense should still be near elite, especially at takeaways,
which often lead to great field position for the offense. Finally,
Cutler is in the ever-important contract year and is out to prove
he can put up big numbers and then get paid next offseason. To me,
this all adds up to a perfect storm and a possible top 10 finish
among fantasy QBs for Cutler, making him a steal in the 12th round.
Alex
Smith, KC
(ADP 13.08)
Smith isn’t an elite quarterback in terms of talent, but often in
fantasy football it's more about opportunity and situation over
skill. While Smith has always been looked at as more of a game-manager,
he has never really been given the chance to do a whole lot since
he has been on run-heavy teams his whole career. This season he
joins a Chiefs team led by Andy Reid, who at times in his career
has seemed to forget that running the ball is even an option. For
this main reason I like Smith as a late-round sleeper who, at the
very least, should pass the ball a ton in this offense and has the
short-range accuracy to be successful at it. While the Chiefs aren’t
exactly deep at the skill positions, they do have two major weapons
in wide receiver Dwayne
Bowe and running back Jamaal
Charles, who have both produced nice numbers despite never having
had anything close to a quality quarterback under center. I’m certainly
not saying that Alex Smith will turn into the second coming of Joe
Montana, but in a pass-heavy attack and with some decent weapons
to throw to, Smith should be a high-end backup this year with the
potential to have a few monster games sprinkled in.
Deep Sleep:
EJ
Manuel, BUF
(ADP 13.12)
I was a bit hesitant to put Manuel on this list after recent news
that he had to have minor knee surgery, but it sounds as though
he could be ready as soon as Week 1, and certainly by a few weeks
into the season. Of the QBs being drafted late (or not at all),
Manuel has the most upside to sneak up into the top 12-15 QBs this
season and have a handful of monster games when the matchups are
right. Manuel, a 6'5", 240-pound, strong-armed and mobile rookie,
should be the Bills' starter as soon as he is healthy enough to
play. He was the first quarterback selected in this year’s draft
and may have been taken even higher if it hadn't been for concerns
over his consistency. On the Bills, Manuel will be running an offense
that will most likely be run-heavy and conservative, yet this shouldn’t
be mistaken as unfriendly for fantasy prospects. A year ago, a rookie
named Russell
Wilson, who arguably has much less natural talent than Manuel,
ran a very run-heavy offense yet became a legit fantasy starter
for much of the season’s second half. Not only should a strong run
game protect Manuel from pressure (both mentally and physically),
but it could open up the passing game for big plays and let him
use his legs to gain yards on the ground. With an underrated offensive
line, a stud running back (Spiller), and some decent weapons in
the passing game, Manuel has just enough around him to be successful
in his first year. I’m not saying he will be this year’s RG3 or
Russell Wilson, but as a late-round flier you should be happy to
draft a guy with this much upside, rather than the usual safe but
boring alternatives.
Suggestions, comments? E-mail
me.
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