With so many fantasy football websites, magazines, blogs, podcasts,
and television shows out there today, the definition of “sleeper”
has changed. Before the internet, fantasy football sleepers were
players that most casual, and sometimes even dedicated fans, had
never heard of. Today, with constant media attention and 24-hour
websites devoted to giving updates on virtually every player in
the NFL, there no players that go completely unnoticed, especially
by fantasy football addicts like me and most likely, you!
There are two types of sleepers in fantasy football today; let’s
call them nappers and deep sleepers. Nappers are guys who a lot
of people out there, “experts” and otherwise, may call “sleepers,”
but the names always seem to be the same. 95 percent of the fantasy
community knows a lot about these players and they are being drafted
sometimes at an ADP that is not very sleeper-esque (yes, I made
that word up). For example, this year’s list of so-called “sleepers”
from around the web (quick google search) include players like
Allen
Robinson, Josh
Hill, Martavis
Bryant, David
Cobb, John
Brown, and Charles
Johnson, just to name a few. The problem I have with these
guys being labeled as sleepers is virtually nobody is sleeping
on them. In fact, most of these guys are being drafted in the
top eight or nine rounds!
I want to be on the lookout for true sleepers – guys who,
in almost all cases, are not being drafted at all, but if things
fall the right way, could make a major impact in your league.
The following five players I present are, in almost all cases,
going undrafted, but I believe each has a shot at fantasy glory
if the situation presents itself. While you may not have the bench
spots available to draft any of these guys, monitor them closely,
as any one of them could pay big dividends later this season.
WR Justin
Hardy, ATL
The Atlanta Falcons selected Hardy in the early fourth round this
year, and while his measurables are relatively unimpressive (5’10’’,
192 lbs., 4.55 40yd dash), Hardy was highly productive in college
(over 100 receptions each of past two seasons) and does a lot
of the little things well enough to demand some playing time right
away. Hardy will never be a No.1 wide receiver for any team in
the NFL, but he is very instinctive, has great hands, plays aggressively,
blocks well, and looks smooth running around the middle of the
field snagging passes. On a pure talent basis, Hardy is just above
average for a NFL receiver, but part of being a true sleeper is
sometimes more about situation than talent.
As of now, Hardy is probably fourth or perhaps even fifth on
the Falcons depth chart, but a closer look at the guys above him
will reveal some real opportunity. Julio Jones is obviously the
man in Atlanta, and as long as he is healthy, he will lead the
team in targets and every other category for receivers, including
getting the most defensive attention. Roddy White has a great
resume and at his peak was among the best in the game; the issue
with White is I do not think he has been healthy in quite some
time. After playing in all 16 games the first eight years of his
career, White has missed 2 games in each of the past two seasons
and his production has dropped as well. Recently, White underwent
a procedure on his elbow, and while he is expected back for opening
day, it is just another ailment to add to his almost 34-year-old
body.
After White is Leonard Hankerson, who has been having a nice
preseason but has been unproductive and/or hurt in four NFL seasons
thus far. Devin Hester is also among the Falcons receivers, but
we all know by now he is not an every-down wideout, and will concentrate
mostly on returns. In one of the better passing offenses in the
game, with a stud quarterback, no tight end threat, and a defense
that will be bad once again, this offense will have lots of opportunity,
and I’m betting that Hardy fills the void. While he won’t
start the season on fire, I could easily see several scenarios
where he is fantasy relevant by mid-season. There is little need
to draft or pick up Hardy right now, but closely monitor him and
the receivers ahead of him, as any change on the depth chart could
mean his ascension to being a solid WR3/flex option in 12-team
leagues, with possibly even a bit more to offer in PPR leagues.
QB Tyrod
Taylor, BUF
Taylor has been named the starting quarterback for the Bills.
He will start multiple games this year and has enough upside to
be fantasy-relevant in the right matchups. Taylor doesn’t
necessarily pass the eye-test for an NFL quarterback. He’s
shorter than ideal (6’1’’) and looks more like
a wide receiver or a kick returner that was put behind center
to run some sort of trick play. The truth is, Taylor is never
going to be a traditional type quarterback; he is an exceptional
athlete with a strong arm who will need to be in a near-perfect
situation to succeed as an NFL passer. If it is ever going to
happen, THIS is his situation, and here is why he can make an
impact.
First, the quarterback competition in Buffalo is among the worst
in the league. Matt Cassel has shown he is nothing more than a
backup, and EJ Manuel has shown, well, almost nothing in his two
seasons. Taylor will need to fall flat on his before Rex Ryan
pulls him for the mediocre options on the bench.
Second, the system Buffalo is running is just about perfect for
Taylor’s skill set. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has
spent the past few seasons in San Francisco, where he coached
an athlete playing quarterback (Colin Kaepernick) in a run-first
offense that produced more than a handful of high fantasy point
games from his QB. We all know Rex Ryan is not afraid to think
outside the box as well, and I would not be surprised if Taylor
is used creatively as a read-option quarterback whose athletic
ability is used to its full advantage.
Third, one of the most exciting things to me about Taylor’s
upside is the weapons around him. Sammy Watkins, on pure talent
alone, may already be a top-10 NFL wide receiver and has had nothing
but rave reviews this offseason as he enters his second year.
Percy Harvin, when healthy, is still one of the most electric
players in the league, and both Harvin and Watkins can take a
2-yard pass (or bubble screen) and turn it into 50 yards and a
TD in the blink of an eye, meaning Taylor will not necessarily
need to fire downfield laser bombs in order to rack up big passing
yardage; he can simply let his receivers do the work for him.
Add tight end Charles Clay into the mix and Taylor has multiple
options who are plus-athletes at their position.
Finally, while LeSean McCoy will see a ton of handoffs this year,
he is also one of the better receiving backs in the league, and
similar to Watkins and Harvin, McCoy has taken many a dump-off
pass or screen pass all the way to the endzone, further padding
his quarterback’s stats. So while Taylor lacks perfect footwork
and has below-average NFL throwing accuracy, these flaws can at
least be partially covered up by the system the Bills run, the
talent around him, and his off-the-charts athleticism. While Taylor
is not going to finish as a top-10 fantasy QB, he has the tools
and the upside to be a very valuable streaming option or even
a starter in a 2-QB league. While the rest of your league mates
may scoff at the idea of starting a Buffalo QB, don't be the one
to sleep on Taylor; he could provide some real explosive scoring
weeks this season at a real bargain price.
The Texans need Blue, Grimes or Polk to
fill a RB void.
RB Chris
Polk, HOU
When Arian Foster went down a few weeks back, the fantasy community
was abuzz trying to figure out who the next man up would be, and
in most cases, the consensus choice has been Alfred Blue. While
Blue looks to get first crack at the job, I believe talent will
win out and Polk will be the Texans back to own before long.
Coming out of college, Polk was an above-average talent with
near ideal size (5’11, 222 lbs.) and soft hands, but some
red flags, including injury history. In his first three years
in Philadelphia, Polk was buried on the depth chart as a change-of-pace
back behind LeSean McCoy and as a kick returner. As someone who
watches every Eagles game, I always wondered why Polk was not
given more opportunities because he had the look of a productive
player. Obviously McCoy was a workhorse so Polk was never able
to shine, but in Houston, Polk finds himself in a very good situation
and a real opportunity to start and contribute even if Foster
returns sooner than we think (which I believe is unlikely).
If any of you watched Hard Knocks this season, Polk was singled
out as a guy who could play all three downs and has shown that
ability thus far in two preseason games, rushing for 65 yards
on 17 carries and catching 8 balls for 70 yards. While the running
backs technically ahead of him on the depth chart, Blue and Jonathan
Grimes, have also looked solid thus far, I believe Polk has the
most talent of the three, and his ability to catch passes may
give him the edge in playing time because the Texans are lacking
quality receivers after DeAndre Hopkins.
With a decent offensive line, a conservative offense, and a defense
that should put the offense in nice position, somebody will emerge
from the Texans backfield as a top-20 RB most weeks. While it
may not happen from the get-go in Week 1, I believe Polk will
emerge as that guy and possesses the most upside of any Texans
runner, making him the back you want to own on this team. Add
in his value of being an undrafted player in about 98 percent
of leagues and you could have yourself the steal of the year.
RB Charcandrick
West, KC
West, for those of you who do not know, is currently third on
the Chiefs RB depth chart. He is an interesting player to judge
because he has off-the-charts athleticism and an explosive highlight
reel, but playing college ball at a small school (Abilene Christian),
it’s not fair to compare him to players who lit it up against
better competition. Now in his second year in the league (he did
not touch the ball once last year), West has made an impression
this preseason and has a good chance of finally seeing some action
when the games really count.
While it may look like a steep climb to fantasy relevance for
West, and it is, the payoff could be huge if the situation presents
itself. Obviously, the main hurdle to West having any sort of
value is the health of Jamaal Charles. While we can never predict
injuries, we can look at the facts and perhaps take a small leap
of faith that there is a fairly significant risk in counting on
Charles to be injury-free. Charles will be 29 in December, has
well over 1,500 total touches in his regular season NFL career,
has had a major injury (2011 ACL), and despite only missing one
full game, dealt with hamstring, ankle, foot, and knee injuries
last year. If Charles stays perfectly healthy all 16 games, obviously
West is an afterthought, but I’m willing to bet West gets
a shot at some significant playing time at some point this season.
Of course, Knile Davis, a perennial fantasy darling of handcuff-supporters,
is still technically the second-string running back, but based
purely on talent, I believe West is the better back. Watching
West’s game tape, I see a back who has patience, burst,
wiggle, balance, and elite speed. At 5’10” and 205
lbs., West is big enough to break arm tackles and more than fast
enough to run away from bigger guys who want to wrap him up. Add
this to his soft hands (71 career college receptions) and in some
ways West could compare favorably to Charles himself.
For those of you who are still non-believers, check out this
video of the Chiefs versus the Cardinals this preseason. On
a play-action fake, West comes out of the backfield, covered fairly
well, catches about a 4-yard pass, turns it upfield, gets to the
corner to beat the covering linebacker, completely jukes a DB
out of his socks, puts his head down, and breaks another tackle
and drags two more defenders another 2 yards for a 20-yard gain.
This play encompasses the overall ability I see in West and is
why I’m so excited about his prospects if he gets any kind of
legitimate playing time. While the odds are against him at least
early in the season, put West on your watch list and closely monitor
his (and the other Chiefs RBs’) situation closely because I believe
he could be one of those out-of-nowhere guys who takes the league
by storm if the cards fall the right way this season.
TE Derek
Carrier, WAS
This one is digging DEEP, but at the tight end position, as you
probably know, if you do not have a top-5 player, you might as
well gamble on someone making a big splash because the next 10
or so tight ends are all very similar. Carrier, formerly of the
49ers, was traded a few weeks back to the Redskins after the Skins
lost two of their top three tight ends for the year. Carrier is
entering his third season and has just 9 catches (all last year)
after entering the league as a major project at the position.
He is a converted WR, where he played at a small school (Beloit
College) and posted big numbers his senior year (75/1250/12) despite
being constantly double-teamed. Carrier has adequate size for
a pass-catching TE (6’3’’, 240 lbs.) and also impressed at his
pro day, including a 4.5 40-yard dash. By all accounts, Carrier
is a smart kid who just needs time to develop to the pro game
and learn the finer aspects of the position. Basically, he is
a project, but one that has the physical tools to excel if put
in the right situation.
This brings me to his current team, the Redskins. Ahead of Carrier
on the depth chart is just Jordan
Reed. Reed spends almost as much time in the trainer’s room
as he does on the field. The Skins offense produced over 90 receptions
and over 1,000 yards to tight ends combined last season despite
up-and-down play from the quarterback position. With Reed being
the only other legitimate threat to catch passes at the position,
chances are Carrier will see some action. Given the sorry state
of the Redskins defense, chances are also good they will be playing
catch-up late in games and a seam-stretcher like Carrier may see
a solid number of deep targets when he gets in the game.
If Reed misses extended time, which is actually likely, Carrier
could be an every-week start at the position if he learns the
playbook quick enough. I’m not saying Carrier is the next
coming of Jimmy Graham, but you are not investing anything in
him at the draft and most of the tight ends after the top few
provide little upside, so when he gets the chance, he is worth
a look at such a shallow position. Closely monitor Reed’s
health and take a look at what Carrier can do; he is certainly
worth a flier off the waiver wire.