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Bill Anderson | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer
Positions: RBs | WRs

PPR Stars - Running Backs
Valuable Running Backs in Point Per Reception Leagues
8/18/15

Anyone who has played in a PPR (Point Per Reception) league knows your draft strategy and weekly lineup decisions can be quite a bit different when compared to a standard scoring league. In this piece I would like to highlight some players that PPR owners should take note of as guys who can change your draft strategy and players that you should perhaps target earlier than you would in a standard scoring league. I have the players broken down into four categories; stars, specialists, sleepers, and slackers.

Stars – established players that have solid value in both standard and PPR leagues but are even more valuable in PPR leagues.

Specialists – players that normally do not have standard scoring league appeal, but in a PPR league they become solid contributors and in some cases, stars.

Sleepers – players that are normally available late in drafts that could potentially become extremely valuable players in a PPR scoring league.

Slackers – players that may be solid picks in standard scoring leagues but whose value takes a hit in PPR scoring leagues.

Note: Current ADP’s based on 12 team PPR scoring leagues

Stars:

Justin Forsett

Forsett has a shot at 70 catches in Trestman's offense.

Justin Forsett (ADP 2.09): In standard scoring leagues I think Forsett is being over-drafted but in PPR leagues he presents real value as the 12th running back coming off the board. While Forsett “only” had 44 catches last season, he was not a full-time player for the entire year and more importantly, did not have offensive coordinator Marc Trestman calling plays like he will this season. Trestman loves throwing to his backs, as evidenced by Matt Forte’s ridiculous 102 receptions last season, and Forsett is a very capable receiver out of the backfield. While breaking 100 catches is highly doubtful, 75+ is certainly in the realm of possibility and with a solid offensive line and questionable receiving coprs, Forsett could easily challenge for the team lead in targets. I would be very comfortable having Forsett as my RB1 in PPR leagues and would happily take him as a top 18 pick.

C.J. Spiller (ADP 4.01): I know labeling Spiller (knee) a PPR star is perhaps a bit premature but based on the situation and his potential I believe it is accurate. Despite only being used as a full-time player once in his five-year career, Spiller has racked up 158 career catches in 70 total games. The last time the Saints had a combo of power and finesse like they do this year with Mark Ingram and Spiller, it produced a top 15 fantasy year for both backs (Deuce McAllister. Reggie Bush). Going from the Bills, who have had no legitimate quarterback in quite some time, to the Saints with Drew Brees under center should only improve Spiller’s chances for success and it should not be a stretch to think Spiller can compete for the team lead in targets, with only an aging Marques Colston and second- year Brandin Cooks likely ahead of him in the pecking order. Last season the Saints led the league in passes thrown to running backs and their two main receivers, Pierre Thomas and Travaris Cadet (83 combined receptions) have both left the team. Add this to a RB friendly home field and a weak division, and Spiller could emerge as a top-10 PPR RB if the cards fall the right way.

Specialists:

Giovani Bernard (ADP 5.12): Last year at this time we were looking at Bernard as a possible every-down stud, but the emergence of Jeremy Hill has pushed Bernard into a more natural-feeling role as a change of pace and receiving back. Despite being part of a relatively conservative offense, Gio has racked up 99 receptions in just two years of work and is a human highlight reel nearly every time he touches the ball. While Bernard’s usage overall is a bit streaky, he is a threat to take the ball the distance anytime he gets his hands on it and isa safe bet to average ten touches a game. Bernard is another player I see being over-drafted in standard leagues but as a late 5th/early 6th round pick in PPR leagues, I think you still get some value from him as a specialist with a relatively safe floor and a high weekly ceiling.

Danny Woodhead (ADP 8.01): Based on his resume and potential for big volume in the passing game, Woodhead is going way too late in PPR leagues right now. Obviously rookie Melvin Gordon is the guy everyone wants this year in fantasy leagues, as the Chargers used a first round pick on him for good reason. What some people are missing though is that Philip Rivers loves short to intermediate passes and Woodhead, not Gordon play to this strength. One of the big knocks on Gordon coming out of college was his lack of pass-blocking and work in the receiving game. Many people believed it was simply a lack of attempts but the word out of Chargers camp is that Gordon does indeed struggle in these areas and Woodhead has already gained the trust of Rivers as evidenced by his 76 catches in 2013. Much like Bernard, Woodhead’s usage may go up and down from week to week based on game situation, but it is not hard to imagine him single-handedly winning you some weeks with 7-plus catch games for 100 combined yards and a score. As the 36th RB off the board on average in PPR leagues, Woodhead presents good value as a RB3 that should easily produce RB2 numbers.

Sleepers:

Roy Helu (ADP 12.06): I watched a lot of Roy Helu over the past couple seasons when he played on the Redskins and I always wondered why he was not given more opportunity. Helu is explosive, compact, and has excellent hands out of the backfield. In Oakland, Helu projects as the pass-catching back behind Latavius Murray, but Murray himself is a big question mark and I actually believe Helu could get a crack as the lead back if Murray falters or gets hurt. Even if Murray emerges as a solid lead back, Helu should get plenty of opportunity as the third-down back on a team that will probably trail in a majority of their games. With a second-year quarterback, Helu could easily see 7 plus targets a game and emerge as a quality RB3 in PPR leagues. If Murray does not produce or gets hurt, Helu may actually see 15 plud touches a game, making him a steal as the current 53rd RB off the board. In PPR league Helu makes an excellent handcuff to Murray and an exciting wildcard/lottery ticket as a standalone player.

Lance Dunbar (ADP 13.12): Even in a standard scoring leagues Lance Dunbar has the makings of a deep sleeper but in a PPR league he is absolutely a guy to keep a close eye on. As the presumed third-down and receiving back in the Cowboys current three-back rotation, Dunbar should already be seeing 5-10 touches a game, with most of those being receptions, but the possible ceiling is much higher if things break the right way. We already know the Dallas offensive line is one of the very best in the league. We also know that the two backs ahead of Dunbar on the depth chart are either injury prone (McFadden) or unproven (Randle). It is easy to see a scenario where Dunbar produces early and often in his third-down role and earns more work as the season goes on. If Randle blows his opportunity and McFadden can’t stay on the field, which has already been a problem this offseason, then Dunbar’s touches could flirt with 15 plus per game. Obviously the opposite is possible too, where Randle runs away with the job and Dunbar is barely fantasy relevant, but for the 62nd back off the draft board on average I firmly believe Dunbar is one of the best late-round values in a PPR draft.

Slackers:

Alfred Morris (ADP 4.02): Savvy fantasy drafters realize the downside of Morris in PPR leagues, where he is going nearly a full round later in PPR drafts compared to standard scoring leagues. Some would say Morris’ drop in value in PPR leagues is overblown but I disagree. Despite hearing nearly every offseason that Morris is working on his receiving skills, he has yet to translate that to the field during games. In three full NFL seasons Morris has exactly 37 receptions, or put in another way, as many as Matt Forte had after just six games last season. With the Redskins offense being something of an unknown, but most likely below average, Morris is a bit risky in PPR leagues, as he will lose touches when the Redskins trail and are in passing situations. While Morris should still finish as a top 20 back, his upside in PPR leagues is severely limited.

Carlos Hyde (ADP 4.10): As far as skill-set goes Hyde may eventually turn out to be a solid receiver, but he is at his best as an early-down thumper who can wear defenses down as the game goes on. For this season at least Hyde is a riskier pick in PPR leagues for a couple reasons. First, Reggie Bush was brought on board to be the pass-catching and change-of-pace back and as long as he is healthy he has proven to be very effective in that role. Second, unless they overachieve, the 49ers have the look of a team that could be trailing a lot in games thanks to the mass exodus of some of their very best players on defense. As a result, Hyde may be pulled off the field in the second half of most games as the team tries to come back from multi-point deficits through the air. With Bush, Kendall Hunter and rookie Mike Davis all competing for snaps, this backfield could get crowded very fast and while Hyde should retain his early-down and goal-line work for the most part, how many opportunities is he going to get? While I don’t mind rolling the dice on Hyde as a RB2 in standard leagues, I’ll let him slide to someone else in a PPR draft where his upside is capped.

Wide Receivers