Anyone who has played in a PPR (Point Per Reception) league knows
your draft strategy and weekly lineup decisions can be quite a bit
different when compared to a standard scoring league. In this piece
I would like to highlight some players that PPR owners should take
note of as guys who can change your draft strategy and players that
you should perhaps target earlier than you would in a standard scoring
league. I have the players broken down into four categories; stars,
specialists, sleepers, and slackers.
Stars – established players
that have solid value in both standard and PPR leagues but are
even more valuable in PPR leagues.
Specialists – players that
normally do not have standard scoring league appeal, but in a
PPR league they become solid contributors and in some cases, stars.
Sleepers – players that are
normally available late in drafts that could potentially become
extremely valuable players in a PPR scoring league.
Slackers – players that may
be solid picks in standard scoring leagues but whose value takes
a hit in PPR scoring leagues.
Note: Current
ADP’s based on 12 team PPR scoring leagues
Stars:
Forsett has a shot at 70 catches in Trestman's
offense.
Justin
Forsett (ADP 2.09): In standard scoring leagues I think
Forsett is being over-drafted but in PPR leagues he presents real
value as the 12th running back coming off the board. While Forsett
“only” had 44 catches last season, he was not a full-time player
for the entire year and more importantly, did not have offensive
coordinator Marc Trestman calling plays like he will this season.
Trestman loves throwing to his backs, as evidenced by Matt
Forte’s ridiculous 102 receptions last season, and Forsett
is a very capable receiver out of the backfield. While breaking
100 catches is highly doubtful, 75+ is certainly in the realm
of possibility and with a solid offensive line and questionable
receiving coprs, Forsett could easily challenge for the team lead
in targets. I would be very comfortable having Forsett as my RB1
in PPR leagues and would happily take him as a top 18 pick.
C.J.
Spiller (ADP 4.01): I know labeling Spiller (knee)
a PPR star is perhaps a bit premature but based on the situation
and his potential I believe it is accurate. Despite only being
used as a full-time player once in his five-year career, Spiller
has racked up 158 career catches in 70 total games. The last time
the Saints had a combo of power and finesse like they do this
year with Mark
Ingram and Spiller, it produced a top 15 fantasy year for
both backs (Deuce McAllister. Reggie
Bush). Going from the Bills, who have had no legitimate quarterback
in quite some time, to the Saints with Drew Brees under center
should only improve Spiller’s chances for success and it should
not be a stretch to think Spiller can compete for the team lead
in targets, with only an aging Marques Colston and second- year
Brandin Cooks likely ahead of him in the pecking order. Last season
the Saints led the league in passes thrown to running backs and
their two main receivers, Pierre
Thomas and Travaris
Cadet (83 combined receptions) have both left the team. Add
this to a RB friendly home field and a weak division, and Spiller
could emerge as a top-10 PPR RB if the cards fall the right way.
Specialists:
Giovani
Bernard (ADP 5.12): Last year at this time we were
looking at Bernard as a possible every-down stud, but the emergence
of Jeremy
Hill has pushed Bernard into a more natural-feeling role as
a change of pace and receiving back. Despite being part of a relatively
conservative offense, Gio has racked up 99 receptions in just
two years of work and is a human highlight reel nearly every time
he touches the ball. While Bernard’s usage overall is a bit streaky,
he is a threat to take the ball the distance anytime he gets his
hands on it and isa safe bet to average ten touches a game. Bernard
is another player I see being over-drafted in standard leagues
but as a late 5th/early 6th round pick in PPR leagues, I think
you still get some value from him as a specialist with a relatively
safe floor and a high weekly ceiling.
Danny
Woodhead (ADP 8.01): Based on his resume and potential
for big volume in the passing game, Woodhead is going way too
late in PPR leagues right now. Obviously rookie Melvin
Gordon is the guy everyone wants this year in fantasy leagues,
as the Chargers used a first round pick on him for good reason.
What some people are missing though is that Philip Rivers loves
short to intermediate passes and Woodhead, not Gordon play to
this strength. One of the big knocks on Gordon coming out of college
was his lack of pass-blocking and work in the receiving game.
Many people believed it was simply a lack of attempts but the
word out of Chargers camp is that Gordon does indeed struggle
in these areas and Woodhead has already gained the trust of Rivers
as evidenced by his 76 catches in 2013. Much like Bernard, Woodhead’s
usage may go up and down from week to week based on game situation,
but it is not hard to imagine him single-handedly winning you
some weeks with 7-plus catch games for 100 combined yards and
a score. As the 36th RB off the board on average in PPR leagues,
Woodhead presents good value as a RB3 that should easily produce
RB2 numbers.
Sleepers:
Roy
Helu (ADP 12.06): I watched a lot of Roy Helu over
the past couple seasons when he played on the Redskins and I always
wondered why he was not given more opportunity. Helu is explosive,
compact, and has excellent hands out of the backfield. In Oakland,
Helu projects as the pass-catching back behind Latavius
Murray, but Murray himself is a big question mark and I actually
believe Helu could get a crack as the lead back if Murray falters
or gets hurt. Even if Murray emerges as a solid lead back, Helu
should get plenty of opportunity as the third-down back on a team
that will probably trail in a majority of their games. With a
second-year quarterback, Helu could easily see 7 plus targets
a game and emerge as a quality RB3 in PPR leagues. If Murray does
not produce or gets hurt, Helu may actually see 15 plud touches
a game, making him a steal as the current 53rd RB off the board.
In PPR league Helu makes an excellent handcuff to Murray and an
exciting wildcard/lottery ticket as a standalone player.
Lance
Dunbar (ADP 13.12): Even in a standard scoring leagues
Lance Dunbar has the makings of a deep sleeper but in a PPR league
he is absolutely a guy to keep a close eye on. As the presumed
third-down and receiving back in the Cowboys current three-back
rotation, Dunbar should already be seeing 5-10 touches a game,
with most of those being receptions, but the possible ceiling
is much higher if things break the right way. We already know
the Dallas offensive line is one of the very best in the league.
We also know that the two backs ahead of Dunbar on the depth chart
are either injury prone (McFadden) or unproven (Randle). It is
easy to see a scenario where Dunbar produces early and often in
his third-down role and earns more work as the season goes on.
If Randle blows his opportunity and McFadden can’t stay on the
field, which has already been a problem this offseason, then Dunbar’s
touches could flirt with 15 plus per game. Obviously the opposite
is possible too, where Randle runs away with the job and Dunbar
is barely fantasy relevant, but for the 62nd back off the draft
board on average I firmly believe Dunbar is one of the best late-round
values in a PPR draft.
Slackers:
Alfred
Morris (ADP 4.02): Savvy fantasy drafters realize the
downside of Morris in PPR leagues, where he is going nearly a
full round later in PPR drafts compared to standard scoring leagues.
Some would say Morris’ drop in value in PPR leagues is overblown
but I disagree. Despite hearing nearly every offseason that Morris
is working on his receiving skills, he has yet to translate that
to the field during games. In three full NFL seasons Morris has
exactly 37 receptions, or put in another way, as many as Matt
Forte had after just six games last season. With the Redskins
offense being something of an unknown, but most likely below average,
Morris is a bit risky in PPR leagues, as he will lose touches
when the Redskins trail and are in passing situations. While Morris
should still finish as a top 20 back, his upside in PPR leagues
is severely limited.
Carlos
Hyde (ADP 4.10): As far as skill-set goes Hyde may
eventually turn out to be a solid receiver, but he is at his best
as an early-down thumper who can wear defenses down as the game
goes on. For this season at least Hyde is a riskier pick in PPR
leagues for a couple reasons. First, Reggie Bush was brought on
board to be the pass-catching and change-of-pace back and as long
as he is healthy he has proven to be very effective in that role.
Second, unless they overachieve, the 49ers have the look of a
team that could be trailing a lot in games thanks to the mass
exodus of some of their very best players on defense. As a result,
Hyde may be pulled off the field in the second half of most games
as the team tries to come back from multi-point deficits through
the air. With Bush, Kendall Hunter and rookie Mike Davis all competing
for snaps, this backfield could get crowded very fast and while
Hyde should retain his early-down and goal-line work for the most
part, how many opportunities is he going to get? While I don’t
mind rolling the dice on Hyde as a RB2 in standard leagues, I’ll
let him slide to someone else in a PPR draft where his upside
is capped.