One of the most fun parts about being in a dynasty league is the
annual rookie draft. It’s a chance to rebuild a lineup for
non-contending teams and to add depth to teams that are in it to
win it this year. For hardcore leagues this draft will often take
place very shortly after the NFL draft so owners that have done
the most research are often rewarded. I recently completed two dynasty
rookie drafts, one traditional setup and one Superflex format. I
hope by sharing these drafts with you it will better prepare you
for how your own drafts may go so that you may better position yourself
to grab the value that you deem attractive.
Round 1 Analysis: In a league setup like this,
the first 3 picks will be Harris, Chase and Pitts in some order.
They make up the first tier as players who are either considered
can’t-miss prospects and/or in the case of Harris, a player
who landed in a spot where he could be among the league leaders
in touches in year 1.
In Tier No.2 you have Etienne, Williams, Waddle, and Smith in some
order. The running backs make the tier because of position scarcity
and draft capital and the receivers because of combination of draft
capital and landing spot. After this tier, most leagues will start
to draft quarterbacks, even in a 1 QB setup, simply because of the
high upside and the uncertainty at both RB and WR in the next couple
tiers. Personally, I would want to trade up if I was outside the
top 8-10 picks because I see a drop-off after the top 3 QB’s
are off the board.
Round 2 Analysis: Round 2 in most leagues, is going
to be filled with WRs, as the running backs dry up due to a weak
class in general and not a ton of good landing spots after Sermon
and Carter. I could see a Tight End like Pat Freiermuth slipping
into this round based on a team’s needs, but otherwise I think
WR will dominate this round, with a sprinkling of RB or QB. If I’m
at the top of this round I am probably trading back a few spots.
Values in this round are Collins and St. Brown, who could both soak
up a lot of targets and outperform guys taken several picks before
them as early as year 1.
Round 1 Analysis: Similar names but WAY different
order in a Superflex format. The top 3 quarterbacks in this draft
class offer immense upside as not only great prospects on paper,
but also fantasy contributors in year 1, potential difference makers
as runners, and solid landing spots. Due to the strength of this
QB class, it provides great value for those teams that need WR or
RB or TE, as the top guys at these positions fall to the middle
of the round. In this format I’m doing everything I can to
trade up into the top 10 picks, as the tiers start to drop drastically
afterwards. A Superflex format certainly makes this class look much
Round 2 Analysis: A couple new names sneak into
this draft but overall it’s mostly the same guys, just in
a different order. Once again, if I have an early 2nd round pick
I’m either trading up (first choice) or trading back, but
not sitting at the top of the round, as you are getting poor value
in most cases. If I have a late 2nd I’m sitting and letting
the draft come to me, or trading out completely if you are not in
love with any of the 3rd and 4th tier players here.
Regardless of format, this looks like a top-heavy draft with solid
value thrown in after the top 15 players are off the board. My
main objective would be to trade up into the early first round
if possible, in basically any format. If I’m holding picks
in the late first or early second and can’t trade up I’m
looking to trade back in order to maximize value.