For those of you in dynasty leagues you know the season never stops.
For those hardcore degenerates like myself, we are always looking
at the latest player news and analysis so we can make moves before
our league mates know what hit them.
Trading for players is one of the best (and most fun) ways of
improving your team, and in dynasty leagues, this is a year-round
adventure often with some of the biggest deals being made months
before the NFL season even starts. This time of year is especially
fun for making deals, as much of the NFL world is just coming
back to life, with the Combine and then the Draft in April.
My trading strategy is pretty simple. I very rarely pay up for
players unless my team is so stacked it doesn't matter. For example,
I would not be buying CeeDee Lamb right now, as he is coming off
an insane season and his value is through the roof. Instead, I
like to focus on players whose value has sunk, but if you dig
deeper and project scenarios, you can see a big value bump over
the next six months or so. The following five guys fit this bill
to me and I am looking to acquire all of them in leagues I do
not already own them.
Just a year ago Young was the top pick in the 2023 draft and
hopes were high that he would change the fate of the Panthers
organization. The 2023 season was a rough one for Young, with
a 2-14 record and awful stats including a 11-10 TD/INT ratio,
a 73 passer rating and a 33.7 QBR. Young took too many sacks (62)
and often times looked lost in a season filled with turmoil, that
eventually got the head coach fired.
So why trade for Young you may ask. We have been spoiled by some
first-year breakouts in recent years, (C.J.
Stroud for one), but most QBs do not have great rookie seasons.
Drew Brees, a player that Young was often compared to coming out
of college, did not have a good season until his 4th year in the
league. While the modern game may not have as much patience, it
is still way too early to give up on such a talented player that
should get, at minimum, two more seasons to make a mark.
Young has to take some of the blame himself, but he was not helped
by the play around him, as two of his top three receivers ranked
near the bottom of the NFL in getting open, and the other receiver
was 33-year-old Adam Thielen,
who was coming off injury and clearly quite a bit past his prime.
With a year experience under his belt and any upgrades at the
skill positions, I predict Young will have a way better 2024 season
under a new coaching staff before exploding in 2025. As the old
saying goes, buy low, sell high, and with Young, you will likely
never have a better buying opportunity than right now for the
former number one overall pick.
Pitts was a fantasy football darling as a pre-draft prospect.
He was drafted early as a rookie and expectations were through the roof. His rookie year was actually very good other
than touchdowns (only 1) and that definitely put a damper on his
fantasy outlook.
In year 2, Pitts took a downturn, as he missed seven games with
injury. Before last season some excitement grew, but by almost all measures his 2023 was a disappointment, as he
managed a pedestrian 53/667/3 line despite playing all 17 games.
Most managers at this point have moved on, looking at shiny new
things like Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride and incoming rookie Brock Bowers, so Pitts might be flying under the radar right in your
league. The crazy thing is, Pitts is still just 23 years old and
there is reason for excitement around his 2024 season.
First and foremost, head coach Arthur Smith is gone. Smith was
a thorn in the side of fantasy managers the past few years, as
he seemingly refused to feed his best players, Pitts included,
while lesser players got very valuable touches.
Second, many have suggested that Pitts never fully recovered
from his 2022 knee injury and even Pitts himself alluded to this
in a few interviews recently. With another year removed and an
offseason to get healthy, Pitts is finally expected to be back
to 100% by training camp.
Finally, a big QB upgrade is almost guaranteed as everyone around
the organization has hinted that the Falcons will be aggressive
in finding a new QB this offseason, either in the draft or by
trade/free agency. To me, this is the perfect time to buy Pitts,
as the arrow is pointing up, while others are distracted by sexier
names. Go get Pitts now and thank me in about 7 months.
Stevenson was a popular breakout/sleeper candidate heading into
2023 as his 2022 season was very productive despite only technically
starting about half the games. A receiving back with size and
power, Stevenson looked the part of a workhorse and many managers
were excited to see what he could do. After the Patriots signed
Ezekiel Elliott, Stevenson’s stock dipped, but there was
still hope he would carry the load. Just a couple games into the
season, however, it was clear that not only was Zeke going to
take a bunch of touches, but also the Patriots offense was so
bad that Stevenson was going to be hard pressed to be a consistent
fantasy back. While Stevenson looked good for small stretches,
it was basically a lost season from the jump which included missing
the last five games due to injury.
Since then, the mighty Bill Belichick has moved on and it seems
the Patriots in general, were a hot mess both on the field and
behind closed doors in 2023. With a new (but familiar to Stevenson)
coaching staff in place, the optimism is slowly starting to creep
back in for the Patriots, with good draft capital, a good salary
cap number, and likely, a new and improved QB.
Zeke is back in the free agent streets and while they will need
to add someone to the backfield, it is unlikely a big name and
the draft class is weak enough that Stevenson is likely to keep
his starting gig heading into the season.
Stevenson is in the last year of his deal so he has all the motivation
in the world to ball out and the offensive environment should
be improved enough to warrant hope for him being a top 15 fantasy
back. He looks very cheap right now for someone just one year
removed from a 1,000-yard rushing season that also had him catching
69 balls and scoring six times as part of a committee.
With limited weapons currently around him, Stevenson could be
the focal point of the offense yet he is being treated as a throw-in
in many dynasty trades I have seen. Going into the prime of his
career, in a contract year, Stevenson is a potential stud at bargain
basement prices right now.
Smith-Njigba, much like his fellow 2023 rookie counterpart on
this list, Bryce Young, was considered by many to be the best
at his position in last year’s draft. While JSN did not
disappoint to the levels that Young did, he did not have a stellar
season by most measurables, especially considering the seasons
posted by fellow rookies Puka Nacua and Tank Dell.
JSN started the season with wrist surgery and never seemed to
get into a rhythm, as he rotated between decent games with 6+
targets (8 games) and under 6 targets (8 games), and never topped
63 yards.
What I like about JSN, besides the likelihood of a lowered price
tag, is he is set up nicely for a second-year breakout based on
a few factors. First, DK Metcalf gets a lot of defensive attention,
yet is far from a target hog (22nd in 2023), so JSN should get
favorable matchups and be the first read on a lot of plays.
Second, Tyler Lockett may or may not be a cap casualty but even
if he stays, he is entering his age 32 season and should be more
of a role player at this point in his career.
What I really like about JSN’s situation is the changeup
in coaching staff, and specifically the hiring of offensive coordinator
Ryan Grubb, who was the OC at the University of Washington. Under
Grubb, the Huskies led the FBS in passing yards per game the past
two seasons and called pass plays nearly 62% of the time. This
would be in sharp contrast to the Seahawks who have had a much
more balanced attack at best the past few seasons.
With natural growth and a more pass-friendly atmosphere I expect
JSN to lead the team in targets and receptions and begin to live
up to his draft status. With all the hype about the incoming rookie
wide receiver class, now may be the perfect time to buy JSN, as
many owners would rather chase the shiny new rookie rather than
rely on last year’s group that failed to break out.
McLaurin was one of the league’s most consistent receivers
during his first four seasons, averaging over 1,000 yards and
5 touchdowns, while also averaging a healthy yards per target
(8.9) and reception (14.3).
Last season, despite the Commanders leading the NFL in passing
attempts, McLaurin’s numbers suffered tremendously, especially
his receiving success rate and his catch percentage, both which
dropped under his career average, along with his yards per reception
(12.7), which hit a career low. Basically, McLaurin was getting
the same amount of work as his previous four seasons but was way
less efficient with his targets. As someone who watched a lot
of Commanders’ games, I can tell you that McLaurin did not
look any different, rather the QB play and the play calling were
awful most of the season.
With Washington cleaning house in the coaching department, 2024
should be a re-do for the WR crew and there is reason for optimism.
First, McLaurin is still in the prime of his career for at least
another season and he’s played all 17 games the past three
seasons.
Second, it is almost a certainty the Commanders upgrade at quarterback,
most likely with one of the top 3 available in this year’s
draft.
Third, new OC Kliff Kingsbury may get grief for never winning
a lot of games, but there is no denying he likes to pass the ball
and feature his best playmakers, which in this case is absolutely
McLaurin. With an awful defense, there should be a lot of negative
game scripts and Washington should continue to be among the leaders
in passing attempts, though this time with improved efficiency.
McLaurin may be flying under the radar in the dynasty community
but I think there’s a real chance for a bounce back and
possibly even a career-year in 2024.