Nick Foles was a big part of one of the most dramatic off-season
moves in the league heading into 2015, and could be the make-or-break
player for St. Louis. The Rams finished last in a highly competitive
NFC West division, but it’s not hard to believe they could’ve
snuck into the playoffs if they just had some competent quarterback
play. Obviously the coaching staff felt the same way as the made
the move to acquire Foles from the Eagles in exchange for their
oft-injured former franchise quarterback, Sam Bradford. Foles
arrives in St. Louis as somewhat of a mystery as he looked brilliant
in 2013 as a newcomer to the Chip Kelly offense, but fell of significantly
in his second season. Foles had a masterful 2013 as he threw for
an unbelievable 27 touchdowns with only two interceptions despite
starting just 10 games. All signs pointed toward a breakout fantasy
season for Foles in 2014, but that’s not how it turned out.
Results were mixed, and Foles looked awful at times as he finished
with a 13-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio before suffering
a season-ending collarbone injury.
Now with the Rams, Foles leaves one of the most unique offenses
the league has seen in years to join a more traditional, perhaps
less fantasy-productive offense. The St. Louis passing game lacks
consistent big-time playmakers which limits the likelihood of
Foles putting up huge games, but there are enough weapons for
Foles to be a solid streaming option in favorable matchups. It’s
hard to imagine a scenario where Foles finishes this season as
an elite fantasy quarterback. Instead, he should be among a group
of decent but not great QB2 options who could be competent backups
or decent enough bye week fill-ins for fantasy owners.
Perhaps the player with the brightest future in the entire St.
Louis offense, 2015 first round NFL Draft pick Todd Gurley does
bring substantial risk for those in redraft leagues as many experts
believe he will start the season on the PUP list due to a knee
injury he sustained this past season at Georgia. Gurley has already
been placed on the team’s NFI list, meaning that he will
not see contact early in training camp, but the team can opt to
remove him from that list at any time. Nevertheless, it’s
one of the most important off-season injury situations to pay
attention to for fantasy owners as if he is placed on the PUP
list to start the season, he would miss the team’s first
six regular season games.
Currently being drafted as high as the fifth round in redraft
leagues, many believe that Gurley will be ready for the team’s
Week 1 tilt against the defending NFC West champion Seattle Seahawks.
That fifth round ADP brings with it significant danger for fantasy
owners as Gurley is not only a rookie who will have missed some
training camp due to injury, but he will also have to fend off
second-year back Tre Mason, who appeared to be one of the best
rookie tailbacks in 2014. Those looking toward the future in dynasty
leagues may view Gurley as high as a first round pick due to his
ideal combination of speed, strength and versatility. Running
back has long been a position of fantasy value in Jeff Fisher-coached
teams so it would not be surprising to see Gurley as a top-five
pick in redraft leagues over the next few years.
Heading into the 2014 season, few expected rookie Tre Mason would
end up being the Rams leading rusher. Then second-year back Zac
Stacy seemed to have a lock on the role after a decent rookie
campaign in 2013 with Benny Cunningham set in as the team’s third
down and change-of-pace back. After a rocky start to the season,
however, Stacy began to see fewer and fewer opportunities, which
led to Mason getting his first opportunity in Week 6. From that
point on, it was the Tre Mason show, as he compiled over 900 total
yards and five touchdowns in the final 12 games of the season.
Those numbers don’t sound overly impressive, but when you consider
Mason faced run-heavy fronts every week, it’s understandable why
he lacked in the big game department. Still, Mason was a consistent
RB2 for fantasy owners and posted acceptable numbers almost every
week. More importantly, he was a young player who seemed to have
a firm grasp on the role as the team’s starting tailback going
forward.
Then came the NFL Draft this past April when the Rams opted to
select Georgia running back Todd Gurley with the 10th overall
pick. Mason, surprised by his team’s seemingly blatant attempt
to replace him, went to Twitter to calmly vent his frustration.
Thankfully, Mason will no longer have to worry about Zac Stacy
as the Rams traded him to the Jets this offseason, but now in
a battle to keep his job, Mason will have to fend off a player
who is perceived to be the running back of the future in St Louis.
With Gurley still recovering from a torn ACL, there is a good
chance Mason will start the season as the lead back in St. Louis.
However, the writing's on the wall and once Gurley is ready to
play, he will be given a decent chunk of the team’s carries
immediately. This, of course, limits Mason’s long-term value
for not only future seasons but also for the second half of 2015.
He does represent solid value given his low ADP but Mason could
end up being a forgotten back by the end of the year.
It’s hard to be overly excited about any receiver in the
St. Louis offense, but if there’s one guy who has the biggest
potential for a breakout season, it has to be Brian Quick. Quick,
who finished the 2014 season with 375 yards and three touchdowns,
surpassed what he had done in either of his first two seasons,
despite playing in just seven games this past year. Not only that,
but he posted those numbers with the likes of Shaun Hill and Austin
Davis at quarterback.
As his name would indicate, Quick is a speedy deep threat who
represents big play potential in an otherwise relatively boring
St. Louis offense. With Nick Foles now behind center, those big
plays could be more common in 2015 as Foles has shown tremendous
ability to throw the deep ball over his past two seasons, particularly
in 2013 when he led all quarterbacks in passes over 20 yards.
Quick is still recovering from the shoulder injury that ended
his 2014 campaign, but reports seem to indicate that he will be
ready to start the season or at least be ready to play early in
the year. If that happens, look for Quick to present fantasy owners
with great value given his current late-round ADP. There are precious
few receivers being selected late in drafts who are likely to
be a big part of their team’s offense this season, so targeting
Quick with a late-round pick would be wise in most scoring systems.
Kenny Britt quietly finished the 2014 season as the Rams’
leading receiver, catching 48 passes for 748 yards and three touchdowns
– his best numbers since his breakout 2010 campaign. It
was Britt’s first season in St. Louis after five in Tennessee,
but expectations could not have been any lower as most had written
him off as a “what could have been” type of player.
Rams head coach Jeff Fisher, who selected Britt in the first
round of the 2009 NFL Draft, apparently still had faith in the
receiver as he made the move to acquire him despite on-field and
off-field issues. Britt possesses tremendous skill and is a fast,
big-bodied receiver who is capable of making a huge play at any
time, but has never really been able to put it all together on
the field. The chances of him suddenly breaking out now in his
seventh NFL season are slim, but Britt is likely to be penciled
in as the Rams No. 2 wide receiver to start the season, which
does give him some fantasy value. Nick Foles might be the best
quarterback that Britt has ever played with, so given his low
ADP, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to take a chance on him in
your draft.
The least exciting but possibly safest receiver among the St.
Louis receiving corps might just be Stedman Bailey, who is now
entering his third season in the NFL. Bailey was practically nonexistent
through the first 10 games of 2014, but was finally given significant
playing time in Week 12 when he caught a season-high seven passes
for 89 yards and his only touchdown of the season. Bailey made
22 receptions for 349 yards in the Rams final six games, showing
that he is a reliable option even in an otherwise stagnant passing
game. Bailey doesn’t possess the elite size or quickness
of either Britt or Quick, but what he lacks in physical stature,
he makes up for in crisp route running and dependable hands. He
won’t likely have many elite games, but Bailey could make
for a decent Flex play in deeper leagues and thus should be considered
for those looking for late-round value at wide receiver.
It would be hard to find a player who has been more disappointing
to a team than the No. 8 overall pick from the 2013 NFL Draft,
Tavon Austin. Austin, a small but ridiculously speedy young receiver
who drew comparisons to Randall Cobb and DeSean Jackson coming
out of college, has been less than spectacular during his NFL
run. After making just 40 receptions for 418 yards and four touchdowns
during his rookie season, it would have been hard for Austin to
not make significant improvements to those numbers in his sophomore
year. Despite the odds and two extra games played, however, Austin
wasn’t able to do it as he saw his numbers as a receiver
drop across the board, down to 31 receptions for 242 yards and
zero touchdowns. While quarterback play has something to do with
that, it’s now becoming increasingly obvious that Austin
does not have the elite skills needed to succeed in this league.
With Austin’s receiving abilities in question, the team
opted to find unique ways to get the ball into his hands in 2014
as they gave him 36 carries, up from the nine carries he had as
a rookie. He was quite productive with his rushing attempts averaging
6.2 yards per carry including two touchdowns. Unfortunately, reports
out of St. Louis indicate the team is looking at Austin as exclusively
at wide receiver heading into the 2015 season. He’ll still
likely get some carries on end-around plays, but his carry totals
will almost certainly be closer to the nine he had in 2013 than
the 36 he had in 2014. At the moment, Austin is undraftable even
in deeper leagues. It doesn’t seem probable he will be given
a starting role other than a punt returner and despite the possibility
of the occasional big play in that department; he doesn’t
represent much fantasy value. Perhaps he and Nick Foles will develop
a chemistry that didn’t arise with the team’s previous
quarterbacks, but that will be something that fantasy owners can
wait and grab off the waiver wire.
Another player who followed Jeff Fisher from Tennessee to St.
Louis is tight end Jared Cook. The giant, speedy tight end that
shows flashes of big play potential has quietly been a serviceable,
but not a spectacular fantasy tight end over the past few seasons.
Despite tremendous inconsistency on a week-to-week basis, Cook’s
season-long fantasy numbers have actually been fairly consistent
since 2011 as he has finished between 45-to-52 receptions, 523-to-759
yards and three-to-five touchdowns in all four years. Those numbers
don’t jump off the page and only make him a low-end TE1
option in most leagues, but Cook has also been playing in run-heavy
offenses with mediocre quarterback play at best. Now with Nick
Foles behind center, Cook should have more of an opportunity to
make plays down the field, which he has shown an ability to do
in the past. Tight end is a weak position in fantasy football
this season which means a player like Cook could end up starting
and hold TE1 value although he’s better served as your TE2
and should be drafted as such.
