Kansas City’s $450 Million man Patrick Mahomes will be one
of the top two quarterbacks selected in all fantasy drafts this
season and that’s after what has to be considered a “down”
year in 2019. Mahomes missed roughly 2.5 games with a knee injury,
but still finished as a top 10 fantasy QB on the season and the
No.6 QB in fantasy points per game. His 16-game pace would’ve
put him at 4,606 yards, 30 touchdowns and six touchdowns, which
is a far cry from the absolutely insane performance he had in 2018,
but we should’ve been expecting at least somewhat of a drop
off. It would’ve been practically impossible for Mahomes to
produce another 5,000-yard, 50 touchdown season through the air.
What he did provide, however, was still plenty good enough to be
considered an elite fantasy QB.
The crazy thing is that what we saw in 2019 might just be Mahomes’
floor from a fantasy standpoint. Injuries led to some less-than-ideal
situations as superstar wide receiver Tyreek
Hill and starting running back Damien
Williams both missed multiple games. This led to the Chiefs
relying on rookie Mecole
Hardman at wide receiver and veteran LeSean McCoy at running
back, which really hurt their explosiveness and Mahomes’ upside
suffered a bit as a result.
Once the Chiefs were back to being healthy, however, Mahomes continued
his blistering pace in the playoffs when he threw for over 300 yards
per game, including 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He
was also highly productive on the ground, which should show us that
he’s capable of an even higher ceiling than perhaps he was
given credit for before.
The Chiefs’ offense hasn’t changed much this offseason,
but they did add another pass catching specialist at running back
in first round selection Clyde Edwards-Helaire, which should only
serve to help Mahomes produce even more in the passing game. Lamar
Jackson is coming off of a historic season, but there’s
plenty of reason to have more faith in Mahomes given that his
floor is significantly higher while he still possesses other-worldly,
league-winning upside.
The only first-round running back taken in the 2020 NFL Draft,
LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the starting running back alongside
Heisman trophy-winning quarterback Joe Burrow in 2019. Edwards-Helaire
rushed for 1,414 yards and 16 touchdowns, but perhaps more importantly
caught a whopping 55 passes for 453 yards and a touchdown, making
him widely regarded as the best pass-catching back in the draft
class. 55 receptions in an NFL season sounds like a solid number,
but at the collegiate level it’s almost unheard of from a running
back.
We saw huge production from Damien Williams when he was given
the opportunity to start in Kansas City, especially in the passing
game, and Edwards-Helaire is probably an even better pass catching
weapon than Williams. If he can even get a similar workload, Edwards-Helaire
could finish as a mid-to-low-level RB1 this season, along with
being perhaps the best rookie RB for dynasty purposes.
Not everything is perfect for Edwards-Helaire, however, as critics
will argue that his talent might not be as unquestionable as a
first round draft pick might indicate. Edwards-Helaire wasn’t
able to earn a starting role at LSU until his final (junior) season.
He was the primary backup behind Nick Brossette, who wasn’t even
a starter on his XFL team. Edwards-Helaire is also not a great
athlete, as he ran just a 4.6 second forty yard dash at under
210 lbs.
Nevertheless, CEH steps into perhaps the best possible situation
in the entire league – at least in the long-term – in the league’s
most explosive offense. Damien Williams was never much of a producer
at the NFL level prior to landing in Kansas City, but even he
delivered some serious fantasy numbers when he was actually healthy
in 2019.
Williams deciding to opt out of the 2020 NFL season has cleared
the way for Edwards-Helaire to be the perceived starter right
out of the gate. Andy Reid has given plenty of praise for Edwards-Helaire
so we have to believe that he’s going to be given every opportunity
to succeed, especially now that there isn’t another proven back
on the roster.
Edwards-Helaire is a high-upside selection who really doesn’t
have a bad floor either given his contributions in the passing
game. Add in his touchdown upside in this powerful Kansas City
offense and you have a true potential league-winning back. Not
everyone is a believer in Edwards-Helaire from a talent standpoint,
but running back fantasy scoring - more than any position - is
dictated primarily by usage and situation, and Edwards-Helaire
is looking great in both of those very important categories.
Like other players in the Kansas City offense, Tyreek Hill started
off the 2019 season with an early-week injury – and his happened
early in Week 1. Hill would go on to miss each of the next four
games before he got back on the field and immediately started dominating
again. He would also get knocked out of the Chiefs’ Week 11
game with a knee injury. The missed games cost Hill his overall
ranking on the season as he finished 29th among WRs, but his 10.9
fantasy points per game were eighth in the NFL among WRs who started
at least five games.
There may not be a more dynamic, explosive
receiver in the NFL than Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill –
we just have to make sure that he’s on the field. If he’s
out there, there’s no reason to bench him in really any
matchup. He’s capable of producing week-winning performances,
but he also provides a surprisingly solid floor in comparison
to most “big play” receivers. Hill finished with at
least three catches and 50 yards in every regular season game
he started in 2019 and all but two games in 2018.
The competition for targets really has not changed much so Hill
remains a near lock to reach 120 targets on the year. No receiver
is without question marks, but Hill really does provide the type
of upside and floor that makes him a legitimate threat to finish
as the top-scoring fantasy wide receiver this season.
The Chiefs’ second round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Mecole
Hardman was immediately thrust into significant playing time when
Tyreek Hill went down in Week 1. Hardman’s world class speed
made him a hot fantasy add as many believed that he’d step
in and at least produce a good amount of what Hill typically did
on the field. It did pay off right away as Hardman scored touchdowns
in each of his first two real opportunities in Weeks 2 and 3,
but he then trailed off into fantasy purgatory when Hill made
his return. The only games where Hardman reached 40 offensive
snaps were when Hill was injured and he failed to reach even 30
snaps in all but one game after Week 5.
Sure, he’s likely to get more playing time in 2020 as he’ll
have another year of experience under his belt, but Hardman isn’t
likely to suddenly supplant Sammy Watkins as the WR2.
While Hardman might be an interesting player to go after in some
best ball formats because of his big play explosive ability, he’s
going to be almost impossible to predict on a weekly basis thus
making him an extremely frustrating fantasy asset in normal leagues.
He’s essentially the wide receiver equivalent of a “handcuff”
for Hill and that’s asking for a lot to make him a quality
fantasy asset.
Just about everyone has been burned by Sammy Watkins for fantasy
purposes and that has actually suppressed his fantasy cost enough
that he might just be a value in drafts. Watkins showed that he
still has some upside in 2019 when he absolutely destroyed the Jaguars
for nine catches, 198 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1 after
Tyreek Hill went out with a shoulder injury. Watkins was the WR1
in fantasy that week and the price to acquire him skyrocketed with
Hill set to miss a few weeks with the injury. Those who opted to
trade Watkins, however, made out like bandits as the veteran would
fail to score another touchdown or reach even 70 receiving yards
for the entire remainder of the regular season.
While it didn’t help fantasy owners, there is some hope heading
into 2020 that Watkins may still have some value in this potent
Kansas City offense. His three game stretch in the playoffs was
actually quite impressive as he caught 14 passes for 288 yards and
a touchdown while adding a 14 yard rush on the ground that put him
over a 100 total yard per game average. It’s a small sample
size and it doesn’t mean that he’s going to be successful
in 2020 but Watkins does have a role in this offense. He led all
Chiefs wide receivers in snaps played in 2019 and is the team’s
most well-rounded complement to Hill when it comes to two-WR sets.
He’ll likely be frustrating to own, but the upside remains
for Watkins to return to fantasy relevance here in 2020.
We’ve seen some incredible season-long performances from players
like Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski
but there’s a real case to be made that no player has been a more
consistent elite producer than Kansas City’s Travis Kelce. Since
he became the Chiefs’ starter in 2014, Kelce has produced at least
67 catches for 862 yards in every season. Better yet, he’s now exceeded
1,000 yards in four straight seasons. To put that into perspective,
Gonzalez and Gronkowski have only reached 1,000 yards four times
in their careers while Gates and Graham have reached that number
just twice in their careers.
Needless to say, Kelce is the picture of consistent, high-level
production at a position that is extraordinarily difficult to find
top-level production from. Kelce isn’t just out-pacing the competition,
he’s lapping them entirely in many cases, essentially doubling some
other top-12 fantasy TEs in year-long production. Jason Witten,
the fantasy TE12 in 2019, scored just 76.9 fantasy points on the
season while Kelce more than doubled that at 159.3 fantasy points.
Even players like Lamar Jackson, Michael Thomas and Christian McCaffrey
don’t provide that type of gap between themselves and other top
options at their positions.
The tight end position is obviously one to be concerned about from
a health standpoint as the physicality makes it one of the most-injured
positions in sports. Kelce has been a picture of health, however,
as he’s started every game (except Week 17 of the 2017 season
when the Chiefs rested their starters) since becoming the team’s
starting TE in 2014. There’s always a potential for injury
and Kelce will be 31 years old when the NFL season kicks off, but
he’s provided incredible durability – and high-end production
– at a position that can be extremely difficult to find production
at.
Many fantasy experts will caution against taking any tight end at
Kelce’s ADP, but he does provide an edge over practically every
other tight end, perhaps with the exception of George Kittle, and
he could be a league-winner. It might sound counter-intuitive given
that fewer tight ends are drafted in smaller leagues, but 10 and
eight-team leagues are often a good place to target players like
Kelce as he will help optimize your starting lineup while you can
address depth at RB and WR in later rounds.
