The last time a quarterback other than Philip Rivers started a
regular season game for the Chargers was all the way back in 2005,
so there’s no question that it’s going to look a little
weird when Tyrod Taylor leads the team out onto the field in Week
1. Or so we assume, anyway. There’s always a possibility
that the Chargers choose to roll with rookie Justin Herbert, which
is certainly one of the very valid concerns about Taylor’s
fantasy outlook for 2020.
The upside of Taylor, however, lies primarily in his legs. In
Taylor’s three seasons as a primary starter in the NFL,
he’s averaged 525 rushing yards per season. To put that
into perspective, only two quarterbacks - Lamar Jackson and Kyler
Murray - finished with more rushing yards than that in 2020, and
only four total quarterbacks (Jackson, Murray, Josh Allen and
Deshaun Watson) finished with even 400 rushing yards. Finding
a quarterback who can give you an additional three to five points
per week with his legs has long been a strategy for late-round
quarterback drafters and there's an outside possibility that Taylor
is the next in the line of deep options who ends up surprising
almost everyone by finishing as a QB1.
Taylor’s never finished with more than 20 touchdown passes in a
season, but he does typically take care of the football from a turnover
standpoint. This gives him a relatively high floor each week and
could make him one of the better values in fantasy this season,
provided that he remains the starter. He’s never had better pass
catching options than he does this season in Los Angeles and there’s
little reason to believe that he won’t easily outperform his current
ADP in two-QB and SuperFlex leagues.
With Melvin Gordon
now in Denver, the Chargers backfield has been opened up for 2019
breakout back Austin Ekeler. The team retained backup Justin
Jackson who battled injuries in 2019, while also adding rookie
Joshua Kelley in the fourth round of this year’s NFL Draft. Still,
it’s widely believed that Ekeler will see the lion’s share of the
touches which should give him enough volume to remain a quality
fantasy option here in 2020.
Of course, the monstrous 10.8 yards per reception that Ekeler
produced in 2019, along with his eight receiving touchdowns will
almost certainly see some regression, but he did also only contribute
three rushing touchdowns on the season which should theoretically
see a bit of an increase, especially if he sees more work near
the goal line here in 2020.
There’s some concern that Ekeler might not be the receiving
weapon he was with Philip Rivers at the helm, especially given that
run-heavy quarterbacks like Taylor typically do not pass as often
to their running backs, but Taylor has shown an ability to get the
ball to pass-catching running backs in the past, as LeSean McCoy
caught an average of 47 passes per season during the three seasons
when Taylor was the primary starter. That’s a far cry from
the 92 receptions that Ekeler had in 2019, of course, but it’s
certainly not a death sentence for Ekeler’s ability to finish
as an RB1 in fantasy.
Rookie running back Joshua Kelley is likely the third back on
the team heading into the season so his ADP will almost certainly
be behind fellow running back Justin Jackson. Kelley’s upside
could make him a significantly better fantasy value, though, especially
in dynasty formats.
Kelley isn’t particularly big, but he is quick, having run
a sub-4.5 forty yard dash, and he possesses better-than-average
strength as well. In addition, he showcased an ability to catch
passes in college with 27 receptions in his 2018 season at UCLA.
Kelley isn’t likely to be an elite back at any point, but
he could potentially be a fairly decent replacement for Melvin Gordon
in the Los Angeles offense. He costs practically nothing in fantasy
drafts and could be someone to look at late in deep drafts as there’s
a real chance that he ends up being the primary back in the scenario
that Ekeler misses time.
He’s not a sexy pick, but it seems as though the injury
concerns for Keenan Allen might be in his past, as he’s
now played in all 16 regular season games in three straight seasons.
His overall production has been remarkably consistent as well,
having caught 97, 102 and 104 receptions, while going for 1,393,
1,196 and 1,199 yards and exactly six touchdowns in each of those
past three seasons.
Things will look different in the Chargers offense this season,
but the one thing that makes Allen a better bet than most to continue
his success is that he’s an exceptional short-yardage pass
catcher who makes plays with the ball after the catch. That bodes
well for his chances to continue to at least be a reliable, productive
receiver even with lesser quarterback play in 2020.
One thing that’s likely to cost Allen a bit of production
this season is that the Chargers will almost certainly throw fewer
total passes this season and while Allen’s target share
will likely remain relatively consistent, that could still mean
that slightly fewer total passes come his way. Still, Allen is
a high-floor WR2 or even low-end WR1 who could slip in some drafts
due to the lack of fantasy hype he’s getting this offseason.
Most fantasy analysts would’ve told you to expect regression
from Mike Williams’ gigantic 2018 touchdown rate when he scored
10 times on just 28 receptions, but few could have expected that
he’d see 34 more targets in 2019 and finish with just two
total touchdowns. Touchdowns are typically a very difficult statistic
to predict, but we know that Williams’ 2018 touchdown rate
was unsustainable on the high-end, and we should also be willing
to forgive him and understand that his 2019 touchdown rate was unsustainable
on the low end.
Now heading into his fourth season as a pro, Williams is yet to
eclipse 50 receptions in any single season and he’s unlikely
at this point to develop into an every week, reliable fantasy option.
That won’t be helped by the fact that he’ll likely have
a below-average passer throwing him the ball in 2020, whether it
be Taylor or Herbert.
Still, Williams is really one of only three down-the-field pass
catchers in the Los Angeles offense who has shown anything at
the NFL level, so his target share is pretty safe. That alone
should make him at least a viable WR3 option for fantasy with
the potential of some spectacular, week-winning performances here
and there.
Another injury-plagued season cost Hunter Henry four games in 2019
and left him less-than-full-strength in many of the games he did
play in. Still, Henry finished the season as the fantasy TE8 overall
with 55 receptions for 652 yards and five touchdowns. He did that
in his first season back after suffering an ACL tear in 2018.
Unfortunately, the Chargers offense just isn’t likely to
be particularly high-powered this season, which could lead to
fewer red zone opportunities for Henry and thus cap him as a mid-level
TE1. He’s still young at just 25 years old, however, so
the best of Henry may still be to come. Don’t look for him
to make that jump into the elite TE1 tier, however, as the players
in that range are catching closer to 100 passes for 1,000-plus
yards and oftentimes push for double-digit touchdowns. Henry is
good and may have the physical ability to be at that level, but
he’s just not in a situation where he’s likely to
produce that kind of end-of-season numbers.
