QB Daniel Jones
(2021 QB Rank – No. 28, 18.5 FPts/G)
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones’ early career had many
viewing him as a player who could develop into a strong fantasy
asset. That projection just hasn’t developed into reality,
however, and the former first-round NFL Draft pick is now looking
more like a player who might end up on another roster sooner rather
than later.
Jones’ rookie season saw him throw for 24 touchdowns with
12 interceptions in just 13 games, but his two seasons since have
seen him combine for just 21 touchdown passes while throwing 17
interceptions in 25 starts. A sub-one touchdown pass per game
average is horrible for anything other than the most elite runners
at the position, but Jones hasn’t even been able to produce
on the ground - at least not at the level that we’d need
for him to be a viable weekly fantasy asset in single quarterback
leagues. He’s averaging just shy of 30 yards per game on
the ground, which is a nice bonus if you were talking about someone
like Justin Herbert who’s also giving you 5,000 or even
4,000 passing yards, but Jones is currently averaging fewer than
2,800 passing yards per season. Some of that lack of passing production
is due to injury, sure, but the reality is that the Giants have
just done an incredibly poor job of putting him in good positions
and he hasn’t been able to overcome the obstacles in front
of him.
The good news is that he is still surrounded by a lot of talented
pass catchers. Evan Engram moved on, but the Giants still have
veterans Kenny Golladay and Sterling Shepard (currently on the
PUP), second-year wide receiver Kadarius Toney, and new additions
like second-round wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson and fourth-round
tight end Daniel
Bellinger. In addition, running back Saquon Barkley should
be back which will give the Giants a ton of added versatility
along with an explosive underneath receiver out of the backfield.
There’s still a lot of work to be done on the offensive line and
the play-calling improvements are only a projection with the new
coaching staff, but things are looking up for this offense as
a whole.
There’s still way too much risk in Jones to consider drafting
him in normal single-QB leagues, but he’s an interesting late-QB2
in 2QB or superflex formats. He’s probably not going to give you
much consistency, but he’s had some real blow-up weeks in the
past and that can certainly be valuable.
One of the most physically gifted running backs in recent memory,
Barkley has certainly taken a tumble down fantasy boards this
offseason. Previously a first-round fantasy pick every year of
his career, Barkley is now being drafted outside the top two rounds
in many drafts. While few can argue that tremendous upside does
not still exist with him, his extensive injury history is now
being weighted heavily in his draft day cost.
Barkley originally suffered an ankle injury early in 2019, his
second season in the league. After missing three games, there
was a noticeable degradation in his on-field performance. Then
in 2020, after being a top-two overall pick in most fantasy drafts,
he suffered a season-ending ACL/MCL injury just two games into
the season. This burned many fantasy managers and the frustration
only got worse in 2021 when he suffered another leg injury in
Week 5, resulting in him missing almost that entire contest in
addition to four more games.
Now entering his fifth season in the league, reports are that
Barkley is back to full health, but there are now worries that
he might have lost a step since he first took the league by storm
as a rookie in 2018. Barkley averaged 5.0 yards per carry as a
rookie, but that number has dropped to just over 4.0 yards per
carry over his past three seasons. Certainly, YPC is closely correlated
to offensive line play, which Barkley has been consistently let
down by in New York, but his lack of explosive plays is also worrisome.
Not only that, but we saw him get targeted in the passing game
just 4.4 times per game in 2021, compared to 7.5 times per game
as a rookie. If Barkley isn’t being utilized at an elite
level in the passing game and his offensive line isn’t opening
up holes for him to run through, then what exactly is he for fantasy
purposes?
The positive for Barkley remains that he’s the unquestioned
starter for the Giants heading into the season. The team hasn’t
spent substantial resources on running back since drafting him
and there’s really no indication that they don’t have
full confidence in him. Even if he isn’t quite the player
that he once was, he’s still a dynamic athlete who commands
double-digit touches in every game. If he’s able to avoid
debilitating injuries, there’s almost no way that Barkley
doesn’t provide a positive return on investment for fantasy
managers, given his low cost.
Journeyman running back Matt Breida joined the Giants this off-season
after spending time in committee backfields with the Dolphins
in 2020 and the Bills in 2021. Now aligned as the clear backup
with no real path to a starting role without an injury, Breida
is going undrafted in most fantasy leagues as a handcuff to one
of the league’s most entrenched starters on what is expected
to be a bad team.
While Breida is unlikely to see significant work without a Saquon
Barkley injury, it’s a bit odd to see Breida not being selected
by the fantasy managers who continually decry Barkley as being
“injury-prone.” If they’re so convinced that
Barkley is going to get hurt again, wouldn’t it make sense
to at least take his backup with a late-round pick? Even if the
team is projected to be bad, a starting running back - or at least
one who’d be projected to lead a committee - would have
some value in today’s fantasy game.
Putting that question aside, it’s easy to look at Breida
and not be very excited about him. After performing well but dealing
with his own injuries while in San Francisco, Breida has had a
tough time getting touches with the Dolphins or Bills over the
past two years. When he has touched the ball, however, he’s
been more efficient than some might think. He’s averaged
over 10 yards per reception in each of his past two seasons, albeit
on small sample sizes, while also rushing for 4.5 yards total
per carry. He was more effective than Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed,
Zack Moss, or Devin Singletary when he had the ball in his hands.
Don’t go into your draft expecting that Breida is going
to become some sort of stud for you this season, but understand
that he’s an injury away from potentially being a weekly
flex starter here in 2022.
Wide receiver Kenny Golladay spent his first four seasons with
the Lions before making his debut with the Giants in 2021. Considered
by most to be one of the bigger off-season wide receiver acquisitions
that offseason, it’s hard to not look at him as being a
colossal failure for New York. Golladay accumulated just 521 yards
on 37 receptions and failed to score a single touchdown. This
was by far the worst per-game production of his career, but it’s
hard to not blame the numerous injuries he suffered for much of
that disappointment.
Unfortunately for fantasy managers, even though reports out of
camp are that Golladay looks healthy, statistics tell us that
his history of hip and leg injuries put him at an added risk to
suffer more of those types of injuries this season and beyond.
We shouldn’t be overly concerned about the rib injury he
suffered in 2021, but the ankle and hip injuries specifically
have a tendency to come back over time.
If Golladay can stay healthy, though, we should expect that he’s
going to be one of the primary weapons in this Giants offense.
The team is actually fairly talented at their skill positions,
but Golladay stands out 6’4”, making him the most
physically imposing receiver on the roster. This has manifested
itself in the past in a near 1,200-yard, 11-touchdown season for
Golladay in 2019 - his only professional season which saw him
play in all 16 games. It’s hard to imagine that Golladay
has that type of upside in New York with Daniel Jones behind center,
but there’s plenty of reason to think that he can still
be a viable fantasy asset this season.
New head coach Brian Daboll has praised Golladay multiple times
throughout the offseason, noting that Golladay has tremendous
contested-catch ability due to his size and athleticism. The team
invested in their offensive line this offseason which should help
not only with the running game but also with protecting the quarterback,
which would seemingly give the team more of an opportunity to
take shots down the field. Golladay would theoretically be the
primary beneficiary of an increase in deep targets as he is by
far the most proven downfield pass catcher on the roster and has
been borderline elite at that range throughout his career.
An off-and-on rookie season makes Kadarius Toney one of the more
interesting fantasy players in New York as we head into the 2022
season. He had a couple of “breakout” games, but immediately
suffered injuries that caused him to miss time and really deflated
his hype.
Now heading into his second season, Toney is in the driver’s
seat to start opposite Kenny Golladay in two-WR sets. Slot receiver
Sterling Shepard is expected to be back at some point and the
Giants spent a second-round pick on Wan’Dale Robinson who
also projects to play primarily out of the slot which will mean
an interesting change in situation for Toney. He was looked at
as primarily a slot receiver himself when he came out of college
and played most of his snaps in the slot as a rookie.
While his average depth of target was one of the lowest in the
league, Toney consistently made Deebo Samuel-esque post-catch
moves to finish in the top-10 in the league in yards after catch
per reception in 2021. The Giants can definitely draw up some
ways for him to get the ball in his hands close to the line of
scrimmage even if he’s not playing out of the slot, but
he’s likely going to need to progress as a route separator
on the outside if he’s going to take the next step toward
becoming more than just a gadget player at the NFL level.
There are plenty of concerns about Toney when it comes to his
ability to perform as a more traditional NFL wide receiver, but
the Giants spent a first-round pick on him in 2021 and they’re
going to give him every opportunity to prove that he deserved
that draft spot. As such, if there’s any receiver on this
roster who’s most likely to break out and become a WR1 for
fantasy this season, it has to be Toney. The chances are still
slim given the expected output from the Giants as a whole, but
it’s not impossible that Toney make some real splashes for
fantasy in 2022.
After missing 21 games over his past three seasons and battling
through injuries in most of the ones he did play in, it’s
easy to forget that Sterling Shepard is entering just his seventh
NFL season and remains one of the more reliable slot receivers
in the league. Unfortunately, he tore his Achilles’ in mid-December
of 2021 and has found himself on the PUP list to start training
camp. There have been some impressive returns from this major
injury in recent seasons, including Los Angeles’ Cam Akers
who tore his Achilles’ in July of 2021 before returning
to lead the Rams’ backfield during their eventual Super
Bowl run. However, that type of recovery is far from the norm
and while it’s been seven months since Shepard’s injury,
it’s normally a full year before players are back on the
field, let alone relevant for fantasy.
If you’re looking for even more proof that the Giants are
worried about Shepard, consider that they drafted Wan’Dale
Robinson, who projects to be more of a slot receiver himself,
in the second round of this year’s NFL Draft. This comes
after then-rookie Kadarius Toney primarily played out of the slot
in relief of Shepard in 2021. Add in Saquon Barkley who occasionally
plays out of the slot himself and this is a roster full of players
who perform best as pass catchers when they’re going over
the middle of the field and making catches close to the line of
scrimmage. They’re not one-for-one replacements for Shepard,
but the Giants are unlikely to force the issue of getting Shepard
back on the field given their roster makeup.
With that information in mind, it makes a lot more sense to avoid
drafting Shepard in traditional redraft leagues and instead look
to add him to your roster once we hear grumblings that he expects
to get back on the field at some point this season.
Tight end Ricky Seals-Jones signed with the Giants this offseason
after a mediocre run in Washington where he replaced the injured
Logan Thomas. There was a lot of excitement early from fantasy
owners who remembered some breakout games he’s had throughout
his career as a member of the Browns and previously the Cardinals,
but the hype quickly went away when he failed to perform. The
fact that Seals-Jones has had those types of breakout games has
never been able to stick with a team is pretty telling. This will
be the fifth team that Seals-Jones has played with over his past
five seasons and he has never reached even 350 yards or scored
more than four touchdowns in any season.
Seals-Jones is athletically gifted, but he just hasn’t
caught on anywhere and there’s little reason to believe
that he’s suddenly going to create a quality connection
with a mediocre passer like Daniel Jones. To make matters worse,
the Giants also drafted tight end Daniel Bellinger in the fourth
round. Bellinger wasn’t much of a stat producer at San Diego
State where his best season saw him catch 31 passes for 357 yards
and two touchdowns as a senior. Still, the added competition at
the position makes it even more difficult to believe that Seals-Jones
is going to be a fantasy name worth noting in 2022.
