A.J. Green should be an absolute target
monster this year, making him a top five pick at his position.
QB Andy
Dalton (2015 QB Rank - No.19, 22.7 FPts/G)
With 25 touchdowns and over 3,000 yards passing in essentially only
12 games, Dalton turned out to be right on the cusp of QB1 status
in 2015. Of course the year ended in embarrassing fashion for the
Bengals, but it certainly wasn’t Dalton’s fault, as
he missed the team’s final four regular season games, and
their wildcard game with a broken thumb. In fact, Dalton was on
pace for a very strong 4,000-plus yard, 30-plus touchdown season
before going down, numbers than compare favorably with his elite
2013 season.
Before you get too excited and pencil Dalton in as a potential starter,
there are a few things to consider. First, his pass catching options
have been decimated, as Marvin Jones, and Mohamed Sanu both left
via free agency, and dominating tight end Tyler Eifert suffered
an ankle injury that might cost him some regular season games. All-pro
A.J. Green remains to dominate targets, but sloppy route-running,
poor handed Brandon LaFell is the current No.2 option out wide.
Also gone is the steady hand of former offensive coordinator Hugh
Jackson. After ascending to the coordinator position in 2014, Jackson
has helped guide Dalton’s development the past several years, so
it could take some time for Dalton to adjust to a new voice in his
ear. And finally, don’t overlook the potential improvement of the
AFC North defenses. Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland have overhauled
their secondaries and should provide more resistance than the 90-plus
quarterbacking rating all three defenses gave up last year.
If you couldn’t tell by now I’m pretty down on Dalton’s
prospects this season. Sure, Eifert should be back to help out early
in the year, but he’s already proven to be injury prone, and
any additional missed time would be detrimental to the Red Rifle.
Having Green to throw to will certainly open Dalton up to a few
huge games, but he’s going to be too inconsonant overall to
approach QB1 value again. Settle on Dalton as a high floor backup,
and work from there.
After nearly three identical statistical seasons, it’s safe to assume
fantasy owners should have a great handle on the worth of Gio Bernard.
Since his rookie season in 2013, Bernard is good for an average
of 164 carries, 49 catches, 1100 total yards, and 5 touchdowns per
season. His overall fantasy finishes have also been remarkably consistent
coming in at 22nd overall, 18th overall, and 16th overall respectively.
I’m just going to go with the flow here and say the Bengals have
figured out the formula to get the most out of Bernard and his usage
should remain mostly the same in 2016. Even with Hill struggling
most of 2015, Gio saw only three games of 10-plus carries after
Week 5, so I don’t see his work on the ground increasing. I do see
an uptick in catches though, as he’s currently the second-best healthy
pass receiver on the roster. This gives him incredible value in
PPR leagues. If Bernard can find the end zone a little more frequently
(only 2 visits in 2015), and surpass his career high of 56 receptions,
he could easily crack the top-15 standard rankings at the running
back position, making him an extremely high floor RB2. A long-term
injury to backfield mate Jeremy Hill could vault Bernard into the
RB1 conversation, but for now, consider him a safe pick at a very
volatile fantasy position.
After a dominating rookie season where he averaged 5.1 yards per
carry, and scored 9 touchdowns while winning owners 2014 titles,
the fantasy world thought the next elite running back had arrived.
Well that arrival didn’t exactly come to fruition, as Hill
slogged his way to a paltry 3.6 yards per carry average in 2015,
and only finished in the top 15 because of his 12 total touchdowns.
By mid-season it was clear that Hill was a touchdown dependent weekly
gamble instead of the standard bearing leader of fantasy squads.
After rushing for five 100-yard games his rookie year, Hill failed
to hit the century mark in any game during the 2015 season, and
coughed up a devastating fumble that led to a heartbreaking playoff
loss to the Steelers. That fumble highlights a disturbing trend
the third-year back must break if he hopes to return to his rookie
year glory. With all of his value tied to yards on the ground (he
had a meager 15 catches for 79 yards in 2015) and touchdown runs,
Hill must prove he can hold onto the ball, especially in crucial
down and distance situations. With talented and trustworthy back
Gio Bernard behind him on the depth chart, further mistakes could
make Hill’s role as the primary runner short lived.
Hill’s issues seem to be more mental than physical, and I
expect him to be extra motivated in 2016 to make up for his poor
2015, and crushing playoff mistake. Look for Hill’s yard-per-carry
average to settle somewhere in the 4.3 range, and if he matches
his 220-plus carry average from his first two seasons, this puts
him squarely in position to reach 1,000 yards. With the Cincinnati
offense taking a step back, I’m not sure 11 touchdowns are
going to happen again, but 7-plus is within reason. Hill makes for
a low-end RB1 with high upside.
Last year I pegged Green as my dark horse pick to finish as the
highest scoring receiver in standard leagues, and guess what, I’m
doing it again this year! If at first you don’t succeed, try
and try again. With Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu taking their 98
combined receptions elsewhere in 2016, and Tyler Eifert on the short-term
shelf, Green should be an absolute target monster this year. Showing
his injury plagued 2014 season was behind him, Green suited up for
all 16 games and led the Bengals with 86 catches, nearly 1,300 yards
and 10 scores, numbers I expect to see rise this season. Green has
the skills and physical stature to beat the coverages that are sure
to concentrate on him. I see Green nearing a career high in targets,
and enjoying his first 100-catch season of his career. A double
digit touchdown total is nearly guaranteed, all leading up to a
season that should land him in the top-5 at his position.
Entering his sixth year, it’s time for Green to put this offense
on his back, and become more of an emotional leader. The Bengals
don’t lack for fire and brimstone, but if last year’s
playoff loss was any indication, that fire is burning down the house.
I really believe this is the season that Green puts it all together
and carries not only the Bengals offense, but fantasy teams as well.
LaFell, the former third-round pick finds himself on his third team
in his seven-year career. After a strong 74-953-7 line for the Patriots
in 2014, injuries and ineffectiveness limited LaFell to only 37
catches for 515 yards last season. The Patriots didn’t see
enough potential in LaFell and moved on from him after the season.
In late March the Bengals brought him in on a one-year deal to
A.J. Green and help offset the loss of Marvin Jones and Mohamed
Sanu. Until last season LaFell had steadily seen increases in his
statistics over the last several years, and brings a veteran presence
to a young Cincinnati receiving corps. But veteran leadership does
a whole lot of nothing for fantasy owners. Entering his age 30 campaign,
LaFell has probably seen his best season come and go. Although he
will see a good amount of targets opposite Green, he won’t
do enough with them to warrant anything more than a late round flier.
After missing out on the draft’s top receivers, Cincinnati
settled for Tyler Boyd with the 24th pick in the 2nd round of this
year’s draft. Lacking the pop and sizzle of other receiving
prospects, Boyd does come with quite a prolific body of work from
his college playing days. He set the all-time record for career
receptions and yards at Pitt (bypassing Larry Fitzgerald). The junior
showed a penchant for tough catches over the middle, but a lack
of long speed and short area quickness limited his big play touchdown
potential. The Bengals drafted Boyd with the intention of making
him their slot receiver, which unfortunately hasn’t been a
heavily targeted position in the recent past. Look for Boyd to have
some impact as a chain moving possession receiver, but little impact
in the fantasy realm.
Serious injuries happen in all walks of life, and obviously professional
football is no exception. But there are some players, despite displaying
elite ability, just can’t seem to shake the injury bug, and
one of those guys is Tyler Eifert. When healthy, there are a scant
few fantasy tight ends more productive than Eifert. In 2015 Eifert
averaged a touchdown a game (13 games played), and totaled 52 catches
for 615 yards. His 10.7 fantasy points-per-game ranked third last
season behind only Gronk and Jordan Reed. So if Eifert could just
avoid the training room, he’d be one of fantasy football’s
most coveted assets. But such is the frustrating existence of fourth-year
player from Notre Dame. In the past two years Eifert has missed
16 games with a serious elbow injury, and three games with a concussion.
This off-season he suffered an ankle injury that required surgery.
The subsequent rehab will take him very nearly to the start of the
regular season, leaving open the possibility of more missed games.
Eifert’s ability and role on this offense, combined with his
long injury history make him one of the biggest risk/reward players
in this year’s fantasy drafts. Watch his rehab closely this
summer, and draft aggressively if things seems to be going well.
He’s a top 5 tight end when healthy, for however many games
that might be.
