In just one season of football (14 games to be exact) Baker
Mayfield has reset the expectations of a morose franchise. Along
the way to setting the rookie record for most passing touchdowns
(27), Mayfield displayed the moxie, accuracy, and big play ability
that made him the No.1 pick in the 2018 draft, and put the Browns
in the rare air of playoff contention. Mayfield proved the doubters
wrong, but can he and the team carry over the momentum into 2019?
There is every reason to believe that Mayfield can, and should
improve on his 2018 numbers. Remember, he started the first two
games of last season on the bench, and the additions of OBJ and
Kareem Hunt add to an already stocked pantry of offensive delights.
The continuity he will have with his head coach means Mayfield
should be poised for a breakout. But before you go betting the
house on Cleveland's new prize horse, remember, he’s the fuse
sitting on top of a powder keg of strong personalities. There
are already rumblings that the transition to new OC Todd Monken
is off to a rocky start. While the Browns have the potential to
be the new darlings of the NFL, there is some who believe they
are just as likely to implode. They are led by a very green head
coach, and things could spiral out of control quickly should the
team not find the success it anticipates.
From a purely fantasy perspective, Mayfield is part of the deepest
position in the game, and I’m frankly not in love with his offensive
line, especially the left side. There is no doubt in my mind that
Mayfield has monster upside (top 3), but he doesn’t come without
risk (despite the high touchdown totals, his 15 interceptions
in 14 games tell me he was still too loose with the ball) and
his very early off-season ADP seems a little high for me. Mayfield
helped win me two leagues last year, so I have a soft spot for
him, and would be happy to run him back as my QB1 as long as I
can draft him in a comfortable spot.
Last season I advised owners to target Chubb as a mid/late season
sparkplug for their teams, and I’m happy to say this was a hit
(among many misses!). Chubb not only made his fantasy owners look
good, but he’s another gem in G.M. John Dorsey’s rebuilt Cleveland
roster. After flashing it Week 3, with a 3-105-2 day (yup, a pedestrian
35 yards per carry average in that one) Chubb didn’t see meaningful
snaps until Week 7, when he carried a career high 18 times in
a narrow loss to the Bucs, which happened to be the same week
Carlos Hyde was dealt to the Jaguars. Chubb remained a fantasy
force down the stretch, finding the endzone 8 times from Week
7 on, while amassing 6 games of 100+ total yards.
Although this offense is teeming with talent, with Chubb being
a piece, the addition of the
disgraced former Chief Kareem Hunt puts a dim light on the season-long
fantasy prospects for Chubb. While Hunt is suspended for the first
8 games of the season, Chubb can and will dominate touches, but
what about when the more versatile and talented Hunt returns?
He will be supremely motivated to produce, as he only has a 1-year
deal with the Browns, and he gives the offense a look in the passing
game that Chubb has yet to display. My biggest hesitation with
Chubb is watching his touches plummet during the most important
part of the fantasy season, and it will simply be impractical
from a value standpoint to handcuff Hunt to Chubb. The bottom
line here is I love Chubb’s early season value in this offense,
but it’s built to take advantage of three-down back like Hunt,
and I can’t trust the former Georgia Bulldog as anything more
than a season-long fringe RB2.
The fact that Hunt finished as the No.8 overall running back in
standard scoring, despite missing five games, tells you everything
you need to know about his talent and value. After a relatively
slow start, Hunt began to fill up the stat sheet from Week 4-9,
scoring 10 total touchdowns during that span. I’ll be perfectly
honest, I’m not really sure where to value Hunt in the 2019 season.
He’s going to end up missing more than half of the fantasy year,
and what will his role be when he does return? If Nick Chubb and
the offense is rolling, will Hunt be more of a bit player? My
gut tells me that Hunt is more than worth stashing on your roster,
as he has title winning potential should he grab a lion’s share
of the backfield work on this offense. The Browns didn’t risk
the backlash Hunt provided simply to have him be a role player.
They saw this as a chance to get a difference making talent for
very little monetary risk, and frankly, he’s a much better schematic
fit for what this offense wants to do. I see him commanding at
least a 50/50 split with Chubb initially, and could be the clear
lead back just as the fantasy playoffs come around. If your league
has extra roster spots, stashing Hunt for 8 weeks becomes a lot
easier, but I believe in his talent enough to make roster concessions
if I’m forced to.
I have as asterisk next to Johnson, because frankly I’m not sure
he’ll be on the team by the time this article goes live on the
site. He’s demanded a trade multiple times this offseason, but
things have yet to move on that front. An afterthought in the
run game, Johnson continued to be a key cog in the short passing
game with 49 receptions for 429 yards. Unfortunately, those final
numbers amounted to career lows for the 5th year back. Two straight
off-seasons the Browns have looked to the draft or free agency
to fill their running back needs, and clearly view Johnson as
nothing more than a change of pace back. And for as long as he
remains on the roster, that’s what he will be. I anticipate Johnson
remaining on the team into training game as injury insurance,
but likely being dealt sometime in late August before roster cut
downs. He’s undraftable if he stays on Cleveland and Chubb is
healthy, but keep an eye out if he gets dealt. He’s shown the
ability to catch 60+ passes in a season, and that alone can return
RB3 value.
And now we get to the biggest fantasy quandary in perhaps all
of the sport, just how to value OBJ. We’ve known for years that
when Beckham is on the field, he’s the most dynamic wide receiver
in the league. But this quickly brings us to problem No.1, he’s
missed 17 games over the past two seasons due to injury, and only
once in his 5-year career has he played a full season. The quickness,
and “twitch” he plays with means he’s a soft tissue injury waiting
to happen, and doesn’t have the size to be effective when his
speed is sapped. The other problem is his mercurial nature. It’s
impossible to gauge his mental health half the time. Even after
getting paid and being the focal point of the offense for years,
he was perpetually grouchy on the Giants. Will a move to a franchise
mired in a decades long funk work, even though the arrow is pointing
up? I said earlier in Mayfield’s piece that this Cleveland team
is going to explode, one way or the other, and Beckham is going
to be a big part of it. He’s playing with the most naturally gifted
quarterback he’s ever had, but there are also a few more mouths
to feed in Cleveland than there ever was during his time in New
York. Based on talent and previous production alone, he’s a shoo-in
WR1, but the position is super deep this year, so you’ll have
a tough time getting real value if you draft him too early.
After 5 years in the league on two different teams, we know what
Jarvis Landry is. He’s a complimentary receiver who relies on a
high volume of targets to get his production. His elite hands and
body control make him a dynamic possession receiver, but he just
doesn’t make enough plays downfield to rack up big yardage totals.
He’s been miscast as a WR1 his whole career, so it’s going to be
a huge relief for Landry to no longer have to deal with double teams
now that OBJ is lining up on the opposite side. Look for Landry’s
target percentage and efficiency numbers to be the strongest of
his career, but his total targets should take a nosedive, and his
touchdown total is limited by the sheer volume of playmakers on
the offense. Look for Landry to have a much better real life season,
than fantasy one, making him more of a high end WR3.
We saw all the reasons why Calloway was a 1st round talent in a
4th rounder’s reality last season. When he wasn’t dropping passes,
or slacking at practice, he was hitting big plays and giving the
Browns offense a passing game dimension they lacked much of the
year. Raw and laden with red flags coming out of Florida, Calloway
had a very mixed 2018 season and the addition of OBJ doesn’t signal
good things for the 2nd year player’s production. Since the offense
hasn’t lost targets with anyone departing, many of the 2018 targets
for Calloway and Landry will be siphoned to Beckham, leaving Calloway
little more than a lid lifting deep ball receiver. Those type of
guys rarely see fantasy relevance unless they play on elite level
offenses. While the Browns have that potential, being at best 4th
in the pecking order doesn’t spell fantasy value for Calloway, baring
major injuries.
One Cleveland receiver I don’t see taking a huge step back
in production because of OBJ is 3rd year player David Njoku. Njoku
built off his solid rookie season by posting a 56-639-4 line last
year, finishing in the top-10 standard scoring at the position.
Njoku is one of the most athletic tight ends in all of the NFL,
and has improved his blocking and route running, meaning he doesn’t
leave the field often. He finished 5th in the NFL in snaps played
by tight ends and his 89 targets where 7th best in the league.
He still drops a few too many passes for how strong and athletic
he is, but he should remain a big piece of what this offense wants
to do. While I don’t know that there is much room for his
reception or yardgage totals to climb with Beckham in the fold,
I do think he can improve his touchdown totals by a few, putting
him squarely in line for top-10 production yet again. He’s
still incredibly young, and has fantastic upside in what COULD
be a very potent offense.
