Is it just me, or does Chicago have one of the most frantic personnel
departments in the NFL? Between their over-the-top pursuit of
kickers last offseason and tight ends this offseason, to the desperate
attempt to move on from Trubisky, this team still hasn’t
found a solid footing under third-year head coach Matt Nagy. Toss
in a global pandemic and this is the backdrop for the coming quarterback
competition between the young gun trying to salvage his career,
and the journeyman Super Bowl MVP trying to do the same.
To say Trubisky regressed in his 3rd season is an understatement.
I get that he played with a damaged labrum in his non-throwing
shoulder for much of the season, but he was extremely erratic
during the first few weeks prior to injury; especially the season
opener against Green Bay at home where the Bears looked befuddled
on offense, scoring only 3 points. I think that game set a tone
for the confidence the team and fans had in him, and the confidence
he had in himself. Plagued by continued inaccuracy (18th in the
NFL in completion percentage), Trubisky only managed to convert
4 of his 15 attempts past 30 yards last year, and that was with
Pro Bowl caliber Allen Robinson. Combine his physical issues with
continued questionable decision making, and it’s clear that the
Bears are ready to go in a different direction. But Trubisky did
show in 2018 that he has the athletic gifts to be fantasy relevant,
and should he win this battle, offers the most upside. I still
will likely be looking elsewhere come draft day.
The Bears become the latest team trying to put the Foles lightning
back in the bottle. To be fair, Foles never had a fair shot in
Jacksonville, as a busted collarbone followed by the emergence
of Gardner Minshew made a long-term stay in northeast Florida
unlikely. Off to the much cooler environs of the Windy City, Foles
engages in a wholly uninteresting quarterback competition with
Trubisky. I think we all know who Foles is as an NFL quarterback
by now. He’s a guy who has played well in short bursts (2013,
and the Eagles SB run) and has been a high level back-up at other
times. Chicago, desperate for an alternative to Trubisky, is going
to give Foles every chance to unseat the incumbent. The problem
is, I don’t think it’s going to matter much. Yes,
Foles is back in an Andy Reid style offense that fits him, but
in a league that values quarterbacks above all else, four teams
(the Eagles twice!) sent him packing. I do think he’ll be
a boost to the Chicago receivers as he delivers a much more catchable
ball, but with limited athleticism (39 rushing yards in the last
four seasons COMBINED), there is a low fantasy ceiling. My best
guess is that both Foles and Trubisky make many more starts for
the Bears in 2020 than they do for fantasy teams.
I was leery about Montgomery last summer when he was the top
rookie runner being selected, sometimes in the top-three rounds
and those fears came to fruition as Chicago seemed unwilling and
unable to give Montgomery the workhorse role he needed to be a
fantasy difference maker. Tarik Cohen siphoned nearly all of the
backfield receptions away and despite finishing 14th in rushing
attempts; Montgomery’s efficiency with those touches (3.7 yards-per-carry)
was dreadful. The wiggle and power he displayed in the pre-season
(where he and the entire Chicago offense were mothballed for a
month) was nowhere to be found in the regular season as he failed
to generate yardage on his own. When you have a bad offensive
line and only get what’s blocked, bad things happen.
I really can’t say I’m overly bullish on Montgomery’s
fantasy prospects in Year 2. Cohen is still there to own the majority
of the 3rd down and hurry up receptions, and while Montgomery’s
rushing volume is sure to hover around the top-10 at the position,
the offensive line hasn’t made enough meaningful additions
to move the needle from their low-tier 2019 rating. Chicago just
can’t seem to figure out any type of identity or consistency
on offense, and maybe Foles helps here, but short of a major shift
on offense, or an injury to Cohen, Montgomery feels like an upside
RB3 at best in 2020.
Despite a huge drop in receiving efficiency (71 for 775 in 2018
to 79 for 456 in 2019), Cohen still managed to be a PPR fantasy
factor last year. As expected, the addition of rookie David Montgomery
saw a drop in rushing attempts for Cohen, but the fourth-year
back was already going to have a nearly impossible time trying
to match his herculean 2018 season.
The entire Chicago offense was in a malaise last year, and even
the shifty jitterbug Cohen seemed to be stuck at times. There
were simply no-big home run plays to be found and he only had
one game over 50 yards receiving, when he had five such games
in 2018. I know the Bears planned to do things differently this
offseason, but with a pandemic shutting the doors on preparation,
and an uncertain preseason, I don’t see an earth shattering change
in Cohen’s role in the offense. It’s likely 2018 will go down
as the best of his career, and 2020 will continue to show that
it’s PPR or bust for the diminutive back.
While I was high on the Chicago offense at this time last year
(ugh!) I wasn’t a huge believer in Robinson’s fantasy
stock. I knew he would be better than 2018 simply by being healthier,
but there is no way I envisioned him going from 94 targets to
154! As the lone playmaker in the entire passing game Robinson
dominated targets, turning in his best season since 2015. He finished
3rd in targets, 4th in receptions and finished as a solid WR1
despite being on an offense that was 25th in the NFL in passing
yards.
But while his talent and physical ability are top tier, it’s tough
to see a repeat of the “one man army” performance he put on last
season. With Anthony Miller struggling to be a factor in the first
half of the year, and Trey Burton injured, “throw it up to Robinson”
was the best play in the playbook in 2019, but I can’t see the
Bears trying to repeat that strategy. With the additions of Cole
Kmet and Jimmy Graham at tight end, and the continued development
of Miller, look for Robinson’s target share to take a dip some
in 2020. And while there is no mistaking the fact that Robinson
is the best player on this offense, a reduction in targets and
receptions might be enough to push him down in high end WR2 territory
this year.
I was an unmitigated disaster at dissecting the Chicago receivers
in this column last year. While I saw a huge second year leap
for Miller as a reliable and dangerous slot threat, the reality
was this offense lacked identity and cohesion, and Miller was
invisible for half of the games he played in. In fact, he was
likely dumped long before his Week 11-15 resurgence and provided
most fantasy squads with absolutely zero value last season. It
took most of 2019 for Miller to find his groove, but even those
huge few weeks were followed by duds (2 receptions for 7 yards
total) to close out the year.
You know the saying about being fooled, so obviously take this
with a grain of salt, but I do think Miller is set for a rebound
in 2020. Despite undergoing another surgery on his shoulder, Miller
might be the healthiest he’s been since entering the league.
There has also been some chatter about the light coming on for
him as far as his mental and physical preparation. If the coaching
staff can turn some of this fluff into actual game plans on the
field, Miller has a shot to provide tremendous fantasy value.
Miller also has the most to gain from Nick Foles winning the QB
battle, as he’s a big improvement in the short pass accuracy
department. I see Miller as a guy sitting in that WR4 territory
that has a real chance to over perform his draft position.
Following last offseason’s reality game-show-like pursuit
of a new kicker, Chicago again has tried a dramatic approach to
finding a new tight end by rostering as many as nine different
players this offseason! While most will be cut by camp, two guys
likely to stick and be a part of the rotation are veteran Jimmy
Graham, and athletic rookie Cole Kmet from Notre Dame.
Matt Nagy brings a version of this offense that has always run
best using multiple tight ends. The reason they lavished millions
of free agency dollars on Trey Burton, and have brought in a legion
of players to remake the position, is evidence of that. The Bears
have had some of the worst fantasy production from the tight end
position over the last few seasons, and while Graham and Kmet
are mega upgrades, I’m still not sure this is a place to
look for fantasy production. Graham largely flopped during his
time in Green Bay and is well past his prime. If he couldn’t
find a way to produce on an offense like the Packers, it’s
not going to improve in Chicago. And while Kmet brings a very
rare combination of size and speed, and was considered the top
tight end in the class, he’s still very raw with only 23
games played during his three seasons in South Bend.
Any production this duo musters is going to be more than Burton
gave during his time on the team, so while it may help the passing
game be a bit more balanced and structured, it will take the unlikely
return to glory for Graham, or the bucking of the rookie tight
end trend for Kmet for either of these players to see a return
on a fantasy investment.
