To say New England has revamped their passing game is an understatement!
In the first 12 hours of free agency the Pats added two receivers
(Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor) and one of the top available
tight ends (Jonnu Smith). So it was quite a surprise that one
of the first transactions of Day 2 (or Day 1…who knows!)
was the Pats adding Hunter Henry. So what in the world do all
these new moving parts mean for Henry’s fantasy outlook...let’s
dig in.
Henry has been a tease for years now, showing the ability to rack
up considerable catches, yardage and touchdowns from a perennially
frustrating fantasy position. But the inability to stay healthy
has been Henry’s biggest obstacle, as he’s missed
multiple games each season, including the entire 2018 season with
a knee injury. Despite missing two games last year, Henry was
still the 7th most targeted tight end in the league, and he set
career bests in targets and receptions so the ability remains.
Unfortunately for Henry the switch from dinker Philip Rivers to
the rifle arm of rookie Justin Herbert led to the offense going
much more vertical in 2020, especially in the middle part of the
year when Herbert settled in. I do wonder if the injuries are
piling up to the point they are costing Henry some of his seam
stretching explosiveness. His average yards-per-reception have
dropped each year he’s been in the league and he seemed
to slip behind Mike Williams in the pecking order at times last
year.
That leads me to my biggest concern about Henry’s fantasy
outlook; his role in this offense. Being teamed with Jonnu, the
Gronk-Hernandez comparisons from the early 2010’s is inevitable,
but the additions of Bourne and Agholor can’t be ignored.
The offense flowed through Gronk and Hernandez with great success
years ago, but that was with Hall of Fame bound Brady conducting
the symphony.
With a late model Cam Newton behind center (as of this being typed
up) and a strong defense, this isn’t suddenly going to become
the greatest show on turf. All four of these guys were signed
partly because of their versatility. They can all play inside
or outside, and I feel the game plan each week will be based on
the most exploitable matchup, which means that this offense isn’t
going to have a defined “go-to” receiver. And just
how many red zone scores can there be? Newton is a good bet to
steal half a dozen from inside the 5, and with Smith around and
capable, Henry doesn’t have that role to himself.
Yesterday I was really high
on Jonnu putting up solid TE1 numbers, and I would have felt the
same about Henry had he been signed first. But short of a major
upgrade or turnaround at quarterback, I can’t see them being Dynamic
Tight End Duo 2.0 for New England. The talent is there, and the
fantasy position so shallow, that they both can at least be low
end TE1 options at best but that’s probably the high end of their
projections.