A devastating knee injury and the dominance of Justin Herbert
stole the spotlight on what was shaping up to be one of the better
rookie quarterback seasons in recent memory. The Bengals played
fast and loose on offense as Burrow averaged over 40 attempts
per game, which placed him right at the top of the NFL with Ben
Roethlisberger. This style of play was forced upon the rookie
as the run game couldn’t get much going, and the defense
wasn’t reliable. Eventually the leaky line played a part
in Burrow’s knee getting mangled and the Bengal season came
to a crashing end.
It was only a 10 game sample, but it was clear to anyone watching
that Burrow has the makings of something special. He showed toughness
and grit, was accurate (65% completion percentage) and careful
with the ball (13-5 inception-to-touchdown ratio). He was able
to elevate the players around him, and become a team leader.
The health of Burrow’s surgically repaired knee is the only question
mark coming into the 2021 season. The Bengals added Ja’Marr Chase
to an already loaded receiving corps, and with the return of a
healthy Mixon, Cincinnati could have the most talented young skill
position players in the NFL. They have bolstered their offensive
line with new coaching additions, veteran signings, and through
the draft (2nd round pick Jackson Carman is expected to start).
If 2019 1st rounder Jonah Williams can stay healthy and play to
his potential, Burrow should see immense improvement in the blocking
this season. Look for the Bengals to play an up-tempo offense
with 3 receivers who are capable of beating the defense on any
given play. This offense, with Burrow at the helm, will be exciting
to watch. If the knee keeps him in the pocket more, Burrow will
likely top out a low end QB1, but has upside to finish near the
top-10.
Poor line play, and a mysterious sprained foot that cost him
10 games combined to torpedo Mixon’s fantasy season in 2020.
Other than the destruction of the Jaguars in Week 4, Mixon struggled
to make plays in the ground or passing game. Rather than spend
any more time trying to dissect a lost season, let’s look
forward to what we get in 2021.
There is a TON to like about Mixon this season. With the release
of Giovani Bernard, Mixon becomes the true undisputed workhorse
of this offense. The Bengals added nothing to the running back
room in the offseason, so they really must have faith in Mixon’s
health. With Burrow and the trio of receivers, he’ll never
face a stacked box, should benefit greatly from improved line
play, and the ever elusive 3-down role (he was on pace for 56
receptions last year). I really can’t find a single reason
(beside health) why he can’t return a top-10 season in any
format. Talent, opportunity, and scheme fully align to give Mixon
a shot at a career year. It’s time for Mixon to play to
the big contract extension he was given.
With long-time Bengal Gio Bernard shown the door, Perine, the
castoff from Washington steps into the backup role behind Mixon.
Other than flashing against lowly Houston for a meaningless Week
16 game last year, Perine has put very little good football on
tape in his career. I’m frankly floored that Cinci didn’t
infuse this backfield with a little more talent behind Mixon,
but they feel strongly about what Perine brings. If you are a
Mixon owner desperate for a handcuff, Samaje is your guy.
A true bright spot in an otherwise tarnished 2020 was the play
of rookie receiver Tee Higgins. The 1st pick of the 2nd round
of the 2020 draft out of Tennessee, Higgins displayed a dazzling
skillset. Using every inch of his 6’4 frame and large catch radius
to make highlight reel plays, Higgins also displayed the ability
to take slants and short passes for long gains. His numbers took
a precipitous dive after Burrow went down, but Higgins was the
most dependable receiver on this team for large stretches of the
year. Offseason reports about his preparation and conditioning
have been glowing, and the return of a healthy Burrow should allow
this duo to flourish. The addition of rookie stud Ja’Marr Chase
and presence of Tyler Boyd will no doubt cap his upside, but his
talent, and this pass happy scheme should enable the 2nd year
receiver to lead this team in receiving, and give you tremendous
value as a WR2.
Largely considered the top receiver in the draft despite missing
the 2020 season due to Covid opt-out, Chase gets reunited with
his collegiate QB, and joins an offense ready to break out. Blessed
with a unique athletic profile, and All-Pro skill-set, Chase should
benefit greatly from his situation in Cinci. Reports from mini-camp
have beamed about how quickly Chase and Burrow have reestablished
their chemistry from college. Burrow lobbied the team to draft
his former Tiger teammate, and I expect Coach Zach Taylor will
look to get the rookie involved early. Justin Jefferson’s historic
rookie season is a good blueprint for Chase’s offensive involvement,
even if the presence of Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd put limits
on his statistical potential. I expect Chase and Higgins to battle
all season to lead this team in receiving, and likely be the better
value at season’s end. Being a rookie and having missed all of
last season could lead to a slow start, but I absolutely love
Chase as an upside WR3 you can probably get well after Higgins
is off the board.
Every year I watch Boyd get lost in the shuffle, only to emerge
as a solid WR3, and I can already feel it happening again in 2021.
With the hype of Tee Higgins, and the swag of Ja’Marr Chase,
here sits the crafty veteran of this offense. Quiet and ready
to provide the stability and consistency the passing game will,
Boyd strikes me as a major value. Since 2018 Boyd has produced
solid numbers on some really bad teams, despite not being given
much support. He’s produced when All-Pros, and flashy top-10
picks were lining up beside him. His ability to get open and be
a game breaking threat from the slot will be the glue that holds
this passing game together. If the passing volume turns out to
be what I expect it to, look for Boyd to again reach WR3 value
on a weekly basis.
To say the tight end position in this offense is an afterthought
is an understatement. Sample, the team's 2nd round pick in 2019
was barely noticeable despite playing in all 16 games after Uzomah
was injured last season. 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) is the
team's base formation, as they led the NFL in 2019 AND 2020 with
76% of their snaps coming from that grouping. The tight end in
this system just doesn’t play a meaningful role in the passing
game as a receiver, so unless your league rewards points for blocks,
look elsewhere for your fantasy needs.
