After two history book seasons in 2019 and 2020, 2021 showed
just how quickly things can turn, even for a dynamic player like
Lamar Jackson. A boatload of injuries to the offense didn’t
help, nor did the first major injury of his career. Missing five
games certainly hurt Jackson’s bottom line stats, but it
was a troublesome 16-13 touchdown to interception ratio that once
again has the league questioning his ability to be an effective
passer.
Despite what seems like continued league-wide disrespect and a
very odd contract negotiation, I fully expect Jackson to bounce
back and be one of fantasy’s most explosive players in 2022.
While his season-long stats took a nosedive, he still finished
just outside the top-5 with a 24.7 points-per-game average, and
has added some bulk to his slight frame. The added muscle should
help absorb the hits he’ll continue to take as a runner,
something I don’t envision slowing anytime soon. His running
ability is what makes him special, and 150 carries should be a
near guarantee. The loss of Hollywood Brown hurts the depth in
the receiver room, and nixes a big downfield threat, but Brown
was maddeningly inconsistent, and Bateman is a much more refined
route runner with better hands. With his runners hopefully back
healthy, Jackson shouldn’t have to take on the burden of
the entire offense again in 2022, allowing him to play a little
more under control. Jackson has more chips on his shoulder than
a bag of Lays, and makes for an easy QB1 with top-5 upside.
Before an ACL tear in the final preseason game last season, Dobbins
was pegged as a serious breakout candidate. Unfortunately, we
never got to see Dobbins in his 2nd year, and instead are left
to wonder what could have been, and what can ultimately be expected
of him in 2022. There have been several studies and examinations
done over the years on how effective players can be upon return
from ACL injuries. For every Adrian Peterson, who rushed for 2k
yards the year after his injury, there are a handful of guys that
struggled (Saquon Barkley most recently) or never regained their
form, and were soon out of the league. Dobbins has both age (23)
and time (he will be 12+ months recovered by the start of the
season) on his side.
What he doesn’t have is a clear path to carries in this Raven
backfield. Dobbins, and his torn-ACL sidekick Gus Edwards are
sure to split carries to start the year until they get their legs
back under them. Dobbins had a dynamite rookie year, rushing for
805 yards, scoring 9 times on the ground and averaging 6.0 yards-per-carry,
and he certainly has the ability to best those numbers with enough
opportunity. There was also talk of increasing his work on the
passing game, as they Ravens desperately need more from their
backs, but he hardly looked smooth and natural as a rookie. As
it’s highly unlikely Dobbins will see snaps in the preseason,
pay close attention to practice reports. If it gets deep into
the summer, and he’s practicing, don’t hesitate to take a shot
on his tremendous upside.
Edwards was yet another member of the Ravens backfield MASH unit
last season, suffering his own torn ACL prior to Week 1. Fresh
off signing a new contract, Edwards was locked into a significant
portion of a backfield timeshare before the injury bug hit. It’s
hard to pinpoint exactly how rehab is going, but all the noise
coming from the team sounds optimistic. With Dobbins, and newly
signed Mike Davis, the Ravens and Edwards have the luxury of taking
it slow with their backfield. While this is great news for their
health and longevity, it makes gauging their fantasy value trickly.
Edwards is slightly older (27) than Dobbins, and wasn’t
exactly home-run hitting explosive before the injury, so any loss
of speed or explosion could be a problem. Edwards is going to
get his fair share of chances, especially close to the endzone,
so that should prop up his standalone value. Unfortunately, he
offers a near zero in the passing game, so he’s only a realistic
option in standard leagues as a low end RB3, or strong handcuff
for Dobbins.
Big things were expected from Bateman entering his rookie season.
Considered by many to be the most “pro-ready” of the
1st round rookie receivers, Bateman got off to a tough start,
missing the first five games of the season with a groin injury,
and having an up and down snap share during the rest of the year.
With his challenging first season behind him, Bateman enters 2022
with his arrow pointing WAY up. The departures of Hollywood Brown
and Sammy Watkins have allowed Bateman to vault to the top of
the receiver depth chart, and he could find himself with a double-digit
increase in target share. There is certainly a strong chance Baltimore
reverts back to being a run-majority team like they were prior
to 2021, but there are plenty of departing targets to give Bateman
WR3 value, with upside for more.
Entering his 3rd year, Duvernay’s leap up the depth chart
puts him into position to set career highs across the board in
2022, but considering this offense has rarely been able to support
more than two pass catchers over the last few years, I’m
not sure the added chances will be enough for Duvernay to have
any fantasy value. This receiver room is as green as any in the
NFL, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Ravens add some
veteran depth in camp. If Duvernay can hold on to his spot entering
the season, he’s at least someone to keep waiver tabs on.
Andrews has been one of the best fantasy players at his position
since entering the NFL in 2018 as a 3rd round pick. The passing
offense has essentially been built around him, as he’s a
mismatch for nearly every defensive player on the field. His 107-1361-9
line last season would have easily been a WR1 finish in any format,
so the weekly advantage a player like Andrews gives is immeasurable.
With Kelce turning 33, and losing the attention of Tyreek Hill,
and Kittle breaking in a new quarterback, Andrews has to be the
consensus TE1 in all formats, even if there will be some natural
regression in his numbers.
